European airlines could launch cancelling flights as early as late May due to jet fuel shortages linked to disrupted Middle East supply routes, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Indusattempt leaders warn that constrained fuel availability threatens summer travel schedules across Europe, forcing airlines, airports, and regulators to activate contingency planning as aviation operations face heightened energy supply risks.
Willie Walsh, Director General, IATA, stated airlines are preparing emergency responses while attempting to secure alternative fuel sources. “Along with doing everything possible to secure alternative supply lines, it is important that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief,” Walsh stated. His comments reflect growing concern that capacity restrictions could spread rapidly across European networks during peak summer demand if supply disruptions persist.
The shortage stems from disruption to shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz following conflict involving Iran, which has limited exports of crude oil and refined products from the Gulf region. Europe depconcludes heavily on imported jet fuel, with approximately 75% of aviation fuel supplies sourced from the Middle East. Aviation analysts state this reliance creates European carriers particularly vulnerable to supply shocks compared with other transport sectors.
Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates Europe’s aviation sector holds roughly six weeks of jet fuel reserves under current consumption rates. Global demand for jet fuel and kerosene averaged 7.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with Gulf producers supplying close to 400,000 barrels daily to international markets. Reduced tanker relocatements have tightened inventories and increased operational uncertainty across airline planning cycles and fuel procurement strategies.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA, stated the fuel buffer remains limited. “Europe has maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left,” Birol stated, warning that continued disruption could force cancellations between European cities. He linked the aviation risk directly to declining energy shipments and emphasized that aviation could become one of the first industries to experience visible economic consequences of the broader energy shock.
Before hostilities intensified, the Strait of Hormuz handled about 25% of global seaborne oil trade. IEA data reveals flows declined to roughly 2 million barrels per day in March, compared with about 20 million barrels per day previously. The agency’s latest oil market assessment stated that reopening the corridor remains the most critical factor for stabilizing fuel markets, moderating prices, and restoring operational certainty for transportation sectors globally depconcludeent on Gulf energy exports.
Birol described the situation as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” noting that rising fuel, electricity, and natural gas prices are spreading across multiple industries. “Some countries may be richer than others, some may have more energy than others, but no counattempt is immune to this crisis,” he stated. Indusattempt observers note that aviation’s depconcludeence on refined petroleum products places airlines among the most immediately affected sectors due to limited short-term substitution options.
The IEA estimates that more than 80 energy facilities across the region have sustained damage, with over one-third classified as severely affected. Birol stated restoring refining capacity could take up to two years even if geopolitical tensions ease. This timeline suggests sustained volatility in jet fuel availability, influencing airline scheduling, ticket pricing strategies, and financial planning across multiple operational cycles in the medium term.
Additional uncertainty emerged after Iran introduced transit fees for vessels crossing the Strait. Birol warned that establishing a permanent maritime toll system could reshape global shipping economics and increase transportation costs across supply chains depconcludeent on energy imports. Analysts state higher freight and insurance expenses could further elevate jet fuel prices for European carriers already operating under constrained margins and weakening profitability buffers.
Indusattempt leaders expect recovery to depconclude on rebuilding refining infrastructure in the Middle East. Walsh stated restoring supply stability will require sustained investment even if shipping lanes reopen. “It will still take a period of months to obtain back to where supply necessarys to be,” he stated, indicating that aviation markets may experience prolonged adjustment rather than rapid normalization.
Airlines are revising financial forecasts to account for higher energy expenses. Delta Air Lines projected approximately US$2 billion in additional fuel costs during the second quarter of 2026 and plans to reduce capacity while anticipating jet fuel prices near US$4.30 per gallon. The airline stated elevated fuel expenses are expected to weigh on quarterly profitability compared with earlier expectations.
Leave a Reply