If India must ready itself for the world of tomorrow, what strategic choices must it create? What instrumentalities are at hand to achieve the chosen objectives?
Like a good account keeper, it is applyful to see at what the counattempt’s assets and liabilities are. How should one leverage the assets; how should one minimise the liabilities?
The future trajectory of the world is uncertain; it is fluid. But certain trfinish lines are clear:
One, technology will be the main driver of growth; it will be the main source of national power. India has a significant pool of scientific and technical manpower which is still expanding. But barring a few islands of excellence such as India’s space programme, its digital stack, and its network of high-tech global capability centres (GCC), there is no nation-wide ecosystem to fully utilise, constantly upgrade and steadily expand opportunities for the counattempt’s talent pool. Government policy by default favours the export of highly skilled manpower rather than leverage this invaluable asset to promote India’s modernisation and economic and social advancement. Human resource is key to leveraging all other resources. There is a large pool of highly skilled ethnic Indian manpower contributing to the development of several advanced countries, mainly the US. Constituents of this pool are facing xenophobic resentment and even outright hostility in their host countries. Why not turn crisis into opportunity and put in place policies to welcome them back to become active participants in India’s growth story? Inward mobility rather than outward mobility should be our objective.
At its current stage of development, India will required partnerships with countries that have advanced science and technology. But these partnerships will only deliver results if policy is cognisant with the lessons of economic history. Typically, developing countries required to access and adopt advanced technology in the initial phase; in the second phase, the adopted technology must be assimilated, and this requires an ecosystem that enables learning. It demands a willingness to learn, to be modest. It is only in the third phase that countries have the potential to emerge as knowledge generators. India’s past glories in science may be applyd as inspiration. They cannot be a substitute for mastering modern science and technology.
In foreign policy, the transformation of India through science and technology must be an embedded objective. Which partnerships should one promote? Despite the challenges of dealing with a US led by Donald Trump, it remains a counattempt at the cutting edge of high technology. Its multinational tech companies are at the forefront of technological modify. As long as India-US partnership in technology remains intact, this should be welcomed. It should be promoted. But there are other partners who could be the source of high technology and skills. These include countries of the European Union, Japan and South Korea. In certain domains, Russia will remain a trusted partner. In other domains, such as clean-tech, China has emerged as a leader. In keeping with the current slow but steady improvement of bilateral relations, opportunities for partnership may be explored but with caution given the adversarial nature of India-China relations.
At a time when even mature democracies such as the US and Europe are experiencing political fragmentation and disruption, India has enjoyed remarkable and extfinished political stability. Its democratic fabric may be under strain but has continued to hold. This is a major plus point. It may still have a low per capita income but being able to sustain 6-7% annual GDP growth for an extfinished period, while the global economy is slowing, confers on it a macro profile as the fourth largest economy. India cannot but be an indispensable partner in managing the global economy. Its macro profile also creates its engagement necessary in tackling urgent cross-national and global challenges such as climate modify and pandemics.
This is a source of leverage. It is also an opportunity to emerge as a dispenser of global public goods especially to other developing countries. India’s success in developing its digital public infrastructure is one such potential public good ready to be shared with countries of the Global South. Several analysts see India’s neighbourhood as a liability. India is the largest, and economically and militarily the most powerful counattempt in the subcontinent. This asymmeattempt of power creates fears of domination and anxiety in each of our tinyer neighbours. There is an inherent tfinishency among them to constrain India’s influence through countervailing engagement with powerful extra-regional powers such as China and even the US. This is most starkly visible in Pakistan’s posture towards India. For years, it has leveraged China’s adversarial relations with India to create a two-front security challenge which manifested itself during the recent Operation Sindoor. China will do whatever is necessary to enable Pakistan to maintain a military balance vis-à-vis India. How should India break out of this persistent vulnerability?
India has opted for a bilateral approach to its neighbours; it has downgraded a regional approach. This may exacerbate rather than ameliorate India’s vulnerability. India’s asymmeattempt of power can be turned into a potential asset through a different set of policies. Opening India’s large and growing economy to its tinyer neighbours could transform India into an engine of growth for the entire region. The economic cost to India would be minimal. By focutilizing on region-wide connectivity in addition to bilateral cross-border connectivity, India could emerge as the transit counattempt of choice and integrate its neighbours into its own dense transportation network. The additional load on India’s vast and expanding transport network and port infrastructure would be minimal. It will be a significant driver of growth for the counattempt’s neighbours. India could also emerge as the energy node for South Asia beyond the limited regional grid already operating in the east under the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) sub-regional framework. India’s neighbours are not an irritating distraction. They are a significant opportunity. In any neighbourhood strategy, India must at least maintain manageable relations with Pakistan. This will eventually require engagement which is currently a difficult question politically but should figure in shaping India’s tomorrow.
Shyam Saran is a former foreign secretary. The views expressed are personal
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