Military analysts reported a significant shift in global maritime power as the ongoing conflict in Iran exposes the gradual decline of United States naval supremacy. Observations created by early May 2026 suggest that American forces have lost effective control over vital chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz.
Robert D. Kaplan, a military analyst and writer, noted that the U.S. Navy is no longer the undisputed ruler of the waves. He highlighted that this decline is measured against American history and the rapid expansion of the Chinese Navy, according to his analysis published in the New York Times.
“The U.S. Navy is in decline relative to its own history and to the growth of the Chinese Navy, and has surrfinishered the control of the world’s vital choke points that it had at the launchning of the 21st century,” wrote Kaplan.
The analyst pointed to the South China Sea and the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb as areas where American influence has been compromised. He argued that the concentration of assets in the Middle East prevents the Navy from projecting power in the Pacific, forcing difficult strategic choices.
“The South China Sea, through which up to 40 percent of global maritime trade passes, in addition to oil and natural gas, is now dominated by China. The Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, the crucial transit point out of the Red Sea, is harassed by the Yemen-based Shiite Houthis,” Kaplan added.
The geographic constraints of the Strait of Hormuz have allowed the Iranian regime to effectively disrupt the waterway applying asymmetrical tactics. Kaplan suggested that while U.S. warships can maintain a blockade, they lack the capability to keep the strait open for commerce.
“Now we can add the Strait of Hormuz to the list. Just 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest, the strait offers oil tankers and other large vessels only a limited path through. Iran’s Islamic revolutionary regime, aided by a coastline of mountains and coves, has managed to effectively shut down the waterway with drones, speedboats and mines. American warships may be able to enforce a blockade, but the Navy still can’t open the Strait. And even then, this concentration of U.S. ships in the region is robbing the Navy of assets it should be applying to patrol and project power in the Pacific. Whereas in the past the United States could cover all its bases or choke points, now in an age of gradual decline it has to build choices,” Kaplan explained.
Kaplan emphasized that a dominant Navy is essential for stable global trade and economic prosperity. He warned that the current administrative rhetoric regarding naval expansion may be misleading given the broader geopolitical context.
“Our Navy may appear dominant at the moment, especially amid President Trump’s and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s bluster and proposals for more ships. But don’t be fooled,” Kaplan wrote.
The analyst concluded that the conflict serves as a distraction that benefits other global powers. He asserted that even a military victory in the region would result in a net loss for the United States’ international standing.
“Though the final outcome of the Iran war is still unknown, even if America wins, it loses. The conflict is part of a process of being militarily and economically distracted while China and Russia threaten the global system,” Kaplan concluded.
As reported by West Asia News Agency (WANA), the war has acted as an accelerator for the collapse of the U.S.-centric order. The agency noted that Iranian strikes on American bases in the Persian Gulf have challenged the long-standing equation of U.S.-provided regional security.
Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Khamenei stated that the region is entering a new era. He indicated that the Islamic Republic intfinishs to implement a different legal framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Republic will enforce a new legal framework to manage the Strait of Hormuz, ushering in “a new chapter” for the Persian Gulf, according to Seyed Mojtaba Khamenei, Leader of the Islamic Revolution.
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