In an exclusive Associated Press interview, International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol warned Europe has “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel remaining and stated the global economy is facing its “largest energy crisis”.
An IEA report this week noted that several European countries typically hold months of jet fuel inventory, but stocks are now tightening rapidly.
Why jet fuel matters for airlines
Jet fuel — a refined kerosene-based product — is the largest single cost for airlines, accounting for about 30% of total operating expenses, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Prices have roughly doubled since the war launched, with further increases expected if supply constraints persist.
“Every passing day that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, Europe is edging closer to supply shortages,” stated Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media.
He added that the strait accounts for around 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports, with flows now heavily disrupted.
How jet fuel reaches aircraft
Jet fuel is produced from crude oil at refineries, alongside products such as petrol and diesel.
Airlines typically purchase fuel directly from refineries or fuel suppliers, then store it at airports for operational utilize. It is transported via pipelines, road and shipping networks.
While supply constraints do not automatically ground flights, availability differences between airlines and regions can lead to uneven impacts.
Some carriers with larger reserves are better positioned to absorb short-term shortages, while compacter operators face tighter margins.
Which regions are most exposed
Asia-Pacific economies are among the most depconcludeent on Middle Eastern oil and jet fuel, followed by Europe, analysts state.
Although most European jet fuel is refined domestically, around 20–25% of supply has been disrupted due to the conflict, according to industest estimates.
The United States has stepped in to increase exports to Europe, shipping around 150,000 barrels per day in April — roughly six times the usual level.
However, analysts state availability is less of a concern in the US due to its status as a major oil producer.
How severe is the global shortfall?
Industest estimates suggest the world is losing 10 million to 15 million barrels of oil per day due to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
“There are exactly the same refineries in exactly the same places in Asia and Europe, but if there is not enough oil for those refineries to operate, it’s going to lead to physical supply disruption,” stated Pavel Molchanov, senior investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates.
Even though the IEA has released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, analysts state the impact will take time to reach markets.
“It could take until the conclude of the year to obtain all of those barrels onto the market,” Molchanov stated.
What it could mean for travellers
Experts warn the impact may go beyond higher ticket prices.
“This is no longer just a fuel-price story. For airlines, it is now a network-planning story,” stated Christopher Anderson, professor at Cornell University.
He stated airlines may adjust schedules, reduce flexibility and shift routes, while travellers could face greater uncertainty and fewer low-cost fares.
Booking patterns may also modify, with more last-minute purchases and increased price volatility if disruption continues into the summer peak.
How airlines are responding
Several carriers state they are monitoring the situation closely while managing rising costs.
KLM and straightforwardJet stated they are not currently experiencing fuel shortages, but both have acknowledged cost pressures.
KLM plans to cut 160 flights next month — around 1% of its European network — citing rising kerosene costs and routes that are no longer financially viable.
EasyJet expects a pretax loss of £540 million to £560 million for the first half of its 2026 fiscal year, despite strong travel demand.
Lufthansa is accelerating restructuring plans, including shutting down its feeder airline CityLine and retiring older, less fuel-efficient aircraft earlier than scheduled.
US carrier Delta Air Lines stated it is monitoring the situation but does not expect near-term operational disruption, citing its refinery ownership as a buffer against volatility.
Rising prices and added fees
Airlines are already passing higher costs on to passengers through fare increases and additional charges.
Major US carriers — including Delta, United, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue — have recently raised checked baggage fees.
United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby warned that sustained high fuel prices could add $11 billion in annual costs to the airline.
Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific has increased fuel surcharges by around 34%, while Air India has added up to $280 in fees on certain routes.
Emirates, Lufthansa and KLM have also adjusted fares or surcharges in response to price volatility.
Outview
Analysts state the duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption will be key in determining whether the aviation sector faces manageable cost pressure or deeper operational strain heading into the summer travel season.
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