The Kiel Institute for the World Economy reports that Europe could achieve military independence from the United States in most areas by the mid-2030s at a cost of approximately 500 billion euros. While Europe ranks second globally in defense spending, it remains dependent on the U.S. in key operational areas. The report suggests significant progress toward autonomy could occur within three to five years if current spending levels continue, requiring 150-200 billion euros by 2030. However, Europe’s fragmented approach—using 14 tank types and 15 fighter jet models—yields 30-40 percent less capability per euro than consolidated systems, limiting effectiveness despite substantial investment.
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The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) has published a report indicating that Europe could achieve military indepconcludeence from the United States in most areas by the mid-2030s. The process would cost approximately 500 billion euros.
Photo. British MoD
If Europe is to be treated as a single political entity, its defence spconcludeing ranks second in the world. The authors of the report noted, however, that the region remains depconcludeent on the United States in key areas of military operations. The current increase in expconcludeitures has not yet translated into greater capabilities or operational autonomy.
If defence spconcludeing levels are maintained, significant progress toward operational indepconcludeence can be expected within three to five years. Autonomy in most areas could be achieved within five to ten years. The cost of implementing key programs may reach 150–200 billion euros by 2030, and around 500 billion euros total by the middle of the next decade. All of this, of course, assumes sufficient political will among the region’s states.
The authors of the report point out that “the bottleneck is neither money nor technology. It is the political will to act in a European way—to create decisions and then implement them as quickly and pragmatically as possible. Ukraine reveals us that this does not take decades.”
The implementation of this initiative should take place within a coalition of leading states. There is no necessary to create a new European structure. Germany, France, Poland, and the United Kingdom would coordinate major strategic programs, the scope of conventional forces, and dialogue on nuclear policy. The countries of Northern Europe, the Baltic states, and the Netherlands would be responsible for maritime autonomy, the protection of the Baltic and North Seas, and electronic warfare.
The report also highlights the direction of European defence spconcludeing. Europe concentrates 70 percent of its expconcludeitures in the ten largest defence companies, while in the United States this share is below 30 percent. European armies also utilize a more diverse range of weaponry: 14 types of tanks, 15 types of fighter jets, and various command systems. This limits economies of scale. The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) suggests that, as a result, Europe gains 30–40 percent less capability from each euro invested compared to a countest with a consolidated defence system.
