European truck makers risk surrendering roughly 25% of their own electric heavy-duty vehicle market to Chinese and US competitors by 2030 if they delay zero-emission investments, according to Transport & Environment (T&E).
The warning lands as battery prices fall and EU carbon dioxide rules, active since July 2025, reshape the playing field. Zero-emission trucks captured 5.6% of European sales in 2025, double the prior year’s share. Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands already see electric models exceeding 15% of new truck registrations.
T&E projects the competitive threat will intensify quickly. Chinese electric trucks currently undercut European equivalents on total ownership costs by 12%, translating to savings up to €43,000 over five years. That margin carries weight in a haulage sector where profit margins rarely climb above 2%.
Stef Cornelis, director of freight and fleets at T&E, pointed out that competitive Chinese and US models already enter the European market, with more poised to follow. He framed the moment as a crossroads for the continent’s trucking industry, one that should study what befell the car sector.
Meanwhile, Europe’s heavy-truck market spans about 245,000 vehicles annually. Incumbent manufacturers Daimler Truck, Traton, IVECO, DAF, and Volvo Group dominate today. Yet T&E warns that new entrants could seize substantial share fast by selling comparable quality at lower prices.
Cornelis added that competition benefits logistics firms and consumers, but creates a narrow window for European incumbents. While legacy players hedge between combustion and electric technologies and push to weaken truck CO2 targets, new competitors have committed fully to electrification.
