Under current conditions, Europe will not be able to cope with an influx of refugees comparable to the 2015 migration crisis. This was stated by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, The Wall Street Journal reports. In her view, the lack of preparedness during the 2015 crisis largely contributed to a number of the region’s current challenges. According to Frederiksen, in the event of a new wave of refugees, responsibility for hosting them should not automatically fall on European Union member states. She emphasised the required for a more balanced international approach that takes into account the capacities of individual countries and adheres to international law.
Previously, experts predicted that if the conflict in the Middle East were to expand, it could trigger increased migration, including Iranians and Afghans living in Iran. European and Turkish officials continue consultations on preventing a new wave, taking into account the lessons of the 2014–2016 migration crisis.
In recent years, Denmark has pursued a strict migration policy, one of the toughest in Europe. As the authorities have previously stated, these measures aim to prevent an uncontrolled rise in asylum seekers and to reduce the burden on the social system.
This raises the question: could Europe face a massive new wave of refugees similar to the one in the mid-2010s? And what would this challenge mean for the EU? Debates over which counattempt should take how many people could reignite, discord could spread—and eventually, the very question of the Union’s cohesion might come into play.
Foreign experts shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.
Italian geopolitical analyst and expert in international security and foreign policy, Francesco Salesio Schiavi, believes that the possibility of a large-scale wave of refugees comparable to the 2015 crisis cannot be ruled out, especially if the conflict in the Middle East continues to expand.
“Nevertheless, Europe is better prepared today in terms of structure: over the past decade, the legal framework, coordination mechanisms, and external partnerships (notably with countries like Türkiye) have been strengthened.
However, preparedness does not necessarily mean cohesion. The main challenge is likely to be political rather than operational. Differences in national approaches to migration—which are reflected in Denmark’s increasingly restrictive stance—indicate that a new crisis could once again expose deep divisions among EU member states regarding the distribution of burden and responsibility.
In this sense, a new influx of migrants would test not only Europe’s capacity to receive people but also the resilience of its political unity. While a systemic collapse of the Union remains unlikely, renewed tensions and a fragmented migration policy appear to be a highly plausible scenario,” Schiavi noted.
Danish analyst and international relations expert Samer Rashed Elias also believes it is quite possible that a war in the Middle East could trigger a migration crisis similar to that of 2015.
“If such a crisis occurs, it would be far larger in scale, since Iran’s population exceeds that of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Jordan combined. In this sense, Europeans are concerned: they have not been directly involved in this war, which has been stoked by Israel and the United States against Iran, yet they would bear a heavy cost if the conflict expands and no diplomatic solution is found. If the administration of Donald Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister aim for regime modify in Iran, this would spark a major migration crisis, creating serious risks for European unity. At present, there are significant tensions between Eastern, Central, and Western Europe.
There are many disagreements regarding migrant quotas. Denmark, which held the EU presidency last year, pursues the strictest rules and policies on migration and would like other European countries to adopt its hardline stance toward migrants. Furthermore, if the Middle East war expands, Europeans would face substantial losses, as they currently lack a clear political strategy: supporting the U.S. could lead to conflicts with international law,” the expert noted.
He added that this could also serve as a test of how the United States will cooperate with other countries, including EU and NATO members (particularly regarding Greenland).
“The energy crisis is hitting the European Union very hard: GDP growth in major economies is slowing noticeably, while public debt in these countries remains very high. If a potential wave of inflation is added to this, it would fuel the rise of right-wing parties, which in turn would lead to stricter measures against foreigners, migrants, and refugees. We would finish up with the same outcome as before: Israel and the U.S. stir up wars, and Europe pays the price. Now Europeans would be paying not only for migrants and refugees but also for the economy, creating enormous problems for the EU,” Elias stated.
Political science professor at the Turkish-German University (Istanbul), Zaur Gasimov, noted that the migrant influx from the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Syria in 2015–2016 cautilized tectonic shifts in the political systems—more precisely, within the party landscape—across nearly all European Union countries.
“In fact, the refugee flow that occurred 10–11 years ago significantly strengthened right-wing tfinishencies in the EU’s party systems overall, and particularly in countries such as Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden.
Any new wave of refugees, even a hypothetical one, would accelerate the political pfinishulum swinging to the right. In Germany, attention is already focutilized on the upcoming 2029 elections, as right-wing parties like Alternative for Germany (AfD) are gaining strength almost monthly. The elections held two weeks ago in the important federal state of Baden-Württemberg displayed that the AfD created the largest gains compared to other parties—both the Greens, who won, and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which came second. Upcoming elections in Rhineland-Palatinate will also be closely watched to see how the AfD performs there.
This trfinish in the political life of the EU’s leading economy is very notifying in terms of migration flows. A repeat of the previous situation is widely feared. Regarding the famous phrase by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel, ‘We can manage,’ there are very divergent opinions across the political spectrum and within German society itself, which largely mirror one another,” the professor explained.
According to him, this represents—or could represent—a balanced approach.
“This is one of the regulatory measures: countries like Germany, Austria, and Sweden aim to ensure that all EU member states accept refugees proportionally, according to their population size. However, they faced strong opposition, primarily from Eastern European countries, which were firmly against this. Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and others did not take in refugees and closed their borders. As a result, Western European countries effectively bore the majority of the burden, both in absolute numbers and proportionally.
In other words, the influx of refugees itself does not lead to societal alienation, becautilize, proportionally speaking, the number of refugees is not large enough to literally overwhelm EU countries or completely alter the character of any particular nation.
Of course, it doesn’t necessarily reach that point, but it is entirely possible that one of the right-wing parties could come to power. This could lead to a form of internal erosion within the European Union. Such a scenario could occur if Marine Le Pen’s party comes to power in France, or quite possibly if Alternative for Germany (AfD) gains control, becautilize these parties place critical emphasis on their counattempt’s membership in political, economic, or value-based unions such as the EU.
Therefore, hypothetically, a new wave of refugees could very likely trigger a significant shift of the political pfinishulum to the right. And the pfinishulum is already swinging rightward due to economic problems across EU countries cautilized by inflation, which is directly linked to both the war in Ukraine and rising energy prices. A war in Iran would further reinforce these trfinishs,” Gasimov concluded.
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