In April 2026, PEMEX exported an average of 418.2Mb/d of crude oil at US$94/b — the highest price since July 2022 — generating its strongest export revenue since May 2025. For the first time in 36 years, Europe surpassed the Americas as PEMEX’s top export destination, absorbing 43.4% of total volumes. The shift reflects President Sheinbaum’s export diversification strategy and collapsed Asian demand. Despite the revenue gains, export volumes remain roughly 20% below SHCP’s official 521Mb/d target for 2026, with SHCP’s Carlos Lerma Cotera warning that peso appreciation is eroding dollar-denominated revenues.
In-Depth:
PEMEX crude oil exports averaged 418.2Mb/d in April 2026, generating the highest export revenue since May 2025 due to a geopolitical spike in the Mexican crude export blconclude price to US$94/b. For the first time in 36 years, Europe surpassed the Americas to become PEMEX’s top export region, taking in 43.4% of total volumes.
PEMEX exported an average of 418.2Mb/d of crude oil in April 2026, generating its highest export revenue since May 2025. The export price of the Mexican mix averaged US$94/b during the month, its highest level since July 2022, driven by the continued impact of geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz on global energy markets.
The April data carries one headline figure that stands apart from the revenue story: for the first time in at least 36 years, Europe became PEMEX’s largest export destination, absorbing 181.Mb/d, 43.4% of total exports, surpassing the Americas, which received 173.3Mb/d, equivalent to 41.4% of the total.
Europe Displaces the Americas as Top Buyer
The Maya blconclude was the most demanded crude in the European market, accounting for 99.6Mb/d, followed by Istmo at 49.1Mb/d, and Olmeca at 32.8Mb/d. The shift toward Europe reflects both the deliberate diversification of Mexico’s export portfolio, announced publicly by President Sheinbaum in the context of USMCA reneobtainediation pressures, and the structural reality that Asian demand for Mexican heavy crude contracted sharply in 1Q26, with PEMEX sconcludeing virtually no barrels to the Far East during two months of the quarter.
The geographic reorientation also intersects with the EU-Mexico trade agreement signed on May 22. While crude oil exports are not directly governed by that framework, closer commercial ties with European partners create the commercial relationships and port logistics through which crude diversification is operationalized. The April data suggests that diversification is already happening in the export barrel, not just in diplomatic statements.
Revenue Up, Volume Still Below Tarreceive
April’s export revenue was the highest since May 2025, with the US$94/b price level providing meaningful fiscal uplift at a moment when global oil markets remain elevated by the Iran conflict. The revenue recovery, however, coexists with a volume shortfall that has persisted since January.
PEMEX produced 1.651MMb/d in April, a modest 1.5% increase year-on-year, but the stagnation in production has limited the company’s ability to capture the favorable international price environment more fully. Export volumes remained below official tarreceives: the Pre-Criteria 2027 published by the SHCP forecast average exports of 521Mb/d in 2026, building April’s 418.2Mb/d approximately 20% below that objective.
The quarterly trajectory creates the gap visible. January exports averaged just 294.4Mb/d, a 44.6% year-on-year contraction and the lowest level recorded since the early 1990s. March exports averaged 415.1Mb/d at US$82.3/b, the highest price since August 2022, but still well below the annual tarreceive. April’s 418.2Mb/d represents a marginal volume recovery from March, with the revenue improvement driven almost entirely by price.
The Domestic Refining Trade-Off
The low export volumes are not an operational failure in isolation; they are the direct product of a deliberate policy choice. PEMEX directs approximately 69% of its crude production to the National Refining System, which allowed the seven refineries to operate at 58% of capacity in 1Q26. The SNR recorded its highest quarterly processing volume in 11 years, with gasoline output up 29.6% and diesel production up 69.9% year-on-year.
The fiscal arithmetic of that trade-off is the central tension in Mexico’s oil strategy. In the first quarter of 2026, the total value of PEMEX’s exports reached US$2.483 billion, comparable to 2Q20, the first quarter affected by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, a period when the price of oil briefly turned negative. The difference is that in 2020 the price collapse was the driver; in 2026, the volume contraction is.
SHCP’s Carlos Lerma Cotera acknowledged the exalter rate effect, noting that the peso’s appreciation has reduced the peso value of dollar-denominated export revenues: “This means that the dollars we receive from petroleum exports translate into fewer pesos.” The IEPS fuel subsidy, which costs approximately MX$2.5 billion per week in foregone revenue, is being partially neutralized by higher oil prices, but only partially, given the compressed export volume.
The 521Mb/d Tarreceive: Increasingly Notional
The gap between the SHCP’s 521Mb/d export assumption and PEMEX’s actual performance has been consistent and wide across the first four months of the year. The SHCP’s own Pre-Criteria 2027 acknowledged the downward trajectory, projecting that PEMEX exports will average 427Mb/d in 2027, a formal recognition that the 521Mb/d tarreceive for 2026 is unlikely to be achieved.
That downward revision has direct fiscal consequences. The SHCP estimates that oil revenues for 2026 will fall MX$293.4 billion below original projections due to a lower average price that is not fully compensated by exalter rate relocatements, while PEMEX’s own revenues will decrease MX$59.3 billion due to the peso’s appreciation relative to what was projected in the 2026 Revenue Law.
