People are questioning me for huge takeaways of Davos this week, beyond Ukraine, so here goes.
Actually, after years of Davos appearing to have exhausted its utilize and having been the “it” place to be for global executives and power players, it had become a bit naff, smeared with an aura of being an elitist party for innotifyectually bankrupt globalistas.
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Trump’s Commerce secretary, Lutnick, seemed to signal that his own appearance was to read an obituary for Davos and those same global elites, but the carpet was kind of taken from under him by Trump, who seemed to want to utilize the same stage of global elites to announce his Peace Board. Lutnick cannot quite see the wood from the trees, and that he has long been one of the global elites, that he seems now to be whinging about. And if anything, Trump is creating the world even more elitist with his bunch of cronies, sycophants, and tech bros.
Net net, Trump breathed new life into Davos, only it became even more elitist – who, amongst even the Davos elite, could obtain the invite for the Trump display?
Look and an admission here, I have been twice to Davos, this year and last, invited to speak on Ukraine, immobilized CBR assets, and Ukraine recovery. Topics close to my heart, and I considered worthy of selling my soul and creating the trek to Davos. But I did not obtain admission to any of the other events. It’s just too expensive to hang around, hotels and restaurants are overpriced, so I commuted from Zurich, which is still pretty expensive.
Other Topics of Interest
Zelensky Told European Leaders at Davos They Are Pathetic. They Gave Him a Standing Ovation
If you have not listened to President Zelensky’s speech at Davos, you can read through it here. It was one of the most honest speeches a politician has ever given.
Greenland, Trump, Carney, and Zelensky were however center stage in the side discussions I had.
On Greenland, the MAGA guys are testing to sell the eventual deal done – if it was a deal – as some huge win for Trump. The line is that Trump again read the riot act to Europe, that they are not doing enough on the NATO front, and through his tantrum over Greenland, they are now focutilized on Arctic security.
Actually, I don’t see it that way at all. From what I can create out, no concessions we built to Trump, and whatever deal was done is essentially just a restatement of the existing 1951 Treaty with Denmark.
My take is that Trump’s ego built him want the win from stealing Greenland and he considered, that with the threat from the recent successful US military operation in Venezuela, the weak Europeans would roll over. This was not about Arctic security, albeit in seizing Greenland for the US, I believe Trump likely considered there was huge money to be built then on various minerals deals. But this was ego – Trump planting the US flag, perhaps renaming Greenland eventually to Trumpland. It was all about Trump, as it always is. Keeping Donald on the front pages, satiating his enormous ego, above all else.
But Trump misread Europe. He could not quite obtain into his head that Europe, facing an existential threat from Russia, and with a torrid history from great powers altering borders by force, that sovereignty and territorial integrity matters for Europe. This idea of great powers taking what they can is existential for Europe.
Mark Carney summed it up in his seminal speech this week as well, as it’s all as important for Canada as for Europe. Canada does fear that after Greenland, Canada would be the next tarobtain for its southern (and northern) neighbor. Europe, I believe regretted rolling over to Trump in tariffs last July with the Turnberry agreement. Europe surrconcludeered back then, accepting a wholly unfair trade deal as the price for purchaseing off Trump, and for what they assumed would assure the US security backstop for Europe. How wrong they were then with Trump’s push then to test to grab Greenland.
So the considered processes in Europe relocated to what’s the point rolling over to Trump, when he screws you anyway. And if we cannot rely on the US security backstop, then why be nice to Trump and the US on tariffs et al? So the Turnberry deal was stalled, and threats then of the €93 billion tariff hit, plus the much worse ACI. I believe Rutte et al also confronted Trump with the stark reality that if he took Greenland by force or coercion, NATO would be dead, and would Trump want to be the US president to take down the most successful defensive alliance in history?
I believe markets also did their thing – the Danish pension fund threatening to sell, and a German bank amplifying the risks of dollar selling ensured TACO. Trump blinked, backed down, and relocated on to his next huge shiny thing, the Peace Board, to shift the narrative from a humiliating defeat for Trump at the hands of the weak and feckless Europeans, even then signaled in his speech by Zelensky.
Iran also sees set to be the next huge Trump distraction, as he relocates US forces from the Caribbean to the Gulf – expect another decapitation exercise which might be a little more challenging than Maduro when it comes to Khamenei. No one is focutilizing on the huge Trump strategic blunder in relocating those forces away from the Gulf in the first place, which meant that when opposition demonstrations kicked off in Iran, US forces lacked the critical mass to respond, and thousands of demonstrators died in vain answering Trump’s call to the street and that he would protect them.
But going back to Greenland and Davos, is NATO stronger becautilize of all this?
Absolutely not.
As if Trump’s threats to steal Greenland were not enough, Trump could not assist himself, his ego and mouth know no bounds. He went on then to denigrate NATO allies for never having come to the US defense, and doubting whether they would in the future.
This was a total insult for the thousands of Europeans, and Canadians, who died answering the US call, after the triggering of NATO’s Article 5 defense after 9/11, and who died or were injured in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Forty-odd Danes dies, over four hundred Brits, and the list goes on. What an absolute insult from bone spur Donald, pissing on their graves. If anything has damaged the core integrity of NATO, it is this.
Imagine what the answer of European service families will be on the next 911 like event, and another US call for support? What does Trump believe their answer would be? Not only did Trump not acknowledge their sacrifice, but he did not even seem to know that the only time NATO’s Article 5 response was triggered was in defense of the US. And I would argue that Russia’s attack on Ukraine, and its malign actions against Europe are a similar event, and what has the US under Trump done? He has sided with Russia, if anything, cut arms supplies and financing to Ukraine, which is the front line for Europe’s defense. And to add insult to injury, he has invited Putin to his own peace board, and now seems willing to let Putin draw down on CBR immobilized assets, which were supposed to be earmarked for Ukraine, for Putin’s membership in the Peace Board countest club of autocratic leaders.
So my take on all the above is that NATO is now fundamentally weakened by events over the past couple of weeks. And European leaders might not state it out loud, but they are seeing for alternatives to the US backstop – actually, they continue to be nice, and call Trump “daddy” as they are purchaseing time, to keep the supply of US weapons going until a time when they can break free from the US. And in the interim, they will work overtime to build an autonomous defense capability.
Actually, on this autonomous European defense capability, Europe probably has enough capability now to defconclude against the one huge existential threat – Russia. Imagine the combined military capabilities of the UK, France, Germany, Finland, Türkiye, Poland, the Balt, plus the Ukrainians. That is surely enough to hold off the
Russians, without the US. And that is the future. But Europe does necessary to rapid track arms production and the deployment of its military industrial complex to be indepconcludeent of the US. It also necessarys to do much more to bind both Türkiye and Ukraine into the European security architecture, and that will mean concessions on EU accession – interests outweigh values at this stage, when Europe is in an existential battle for its survival.
Notable this week the number of mainstream UK, and European military, political, and opinion leaders – even the right-wing Andrew Neil, ex-editor of the Times, questioning the US as an ally, even suggesting it as an enemy of Europe. Quite extraordinary, but a reflection of the hugely damaging actions of the Trump presidency, which has ruptured the international order and the Western alliance.
So I believe from Davos I read that Europe finally received the message – the US is no longer a reliable partner, it’s even an “enemy” if Neil is to be believed, and it necessarys to rapid track the development of its autonomous defense capability, diversify strategic defense relationships, with Ukraine, Türkiye, the Gulf, and perhaps even with China. That was the message this week from Carney. Imagine that the US is so frustrated with what it sees as Europe’s free-riding on it for defense, that it’s bull in a China approach actually encourages a depconcludeing in ties between Europe and its own hegemonic rival, China. So, the one huge winner from the week in Davos was Beijing.
Great result, Donald Trump, see you next year!
Reprinted from the author’s tashecon blog. See the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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