LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) – Europe could start seeing physical shortages of jet fuel by June due to the Iran war if the region is only able to replace half of the fuel supplies it normally obtains from the Middle East, the International Energy Agency stated in its monthly report.
Global jet fuel and kerosene demand averaged 7.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with Gulf exports the largest source to the global market, averaging nearly 400,000 bpd, the report added.
Here are some key details:
* Europe has the highest depconcludeency on jet fuel from theMiddle East, with the region supplying nearly 375,000 bpd, or75%, of Europe’s net jet fuel imports. * Within Europe, levels of stockpiled fuel vary from countestto countest. Spain, with plentiful stocks, is a net exporter ofjet fuel, while Britain, which is also the region’s largestconsumer, imports 65% of its demand. * If Europe manages to replace all of its Middle Eastimports and volumes, jet fuel stocks will adequately cover theIEA’s assessment of 2026 demand. * If stocks of jet fuel in Europe were to drop below 23 daysof demand cover, physical shortages and demand destruction wouldemerge at select airports. Europe’s stocks have not droppedbelow 29 days’ cover since 2020. * If Europe is only able to replace 75% of its Middle Eastvolumes, there would be insufficient inventory to meet demand insummer months and stocks would drop below the 23-day level byAugust. But if only 50% of the supply is replaceable, thenstocks will hit the 23-day level in June.
(Reporting by Seher Dareen in London, editing by Alex Lawler and xx)
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