Just two weeks before Election Day, a new Brennan Center for Justice study reveals that prediction market odds hold as much sway over voter expectations as traditional polling, and most Americans want stricter rules around these wagering platforms.
The findings land amid a surge in election betting and high-profile partnerships between prediction exchanges and mainstream media outlets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket now feed odds data into digital, print, and television coverage, blurring the line between journalism and gambling markets.
Yet more than 80% of survey respondents favor tighter regulations on political event contracts or an outright ban. Researchers attribute part of that distrust to a basic confusion: many voters cannot tell the difference between a scientific poll and a betting market.
The methodology gap matters. Polls sample a representative slice of the electorate and ask who they plan to support. Prediction markets, by contrast, track prices at which traders buy and sell contracts tied to specific outcomes. Those prices reflect betting behavior, not voter intention.
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Despite that distinction, the trading data shapes perception in measurable ways. When a candidate led on prediction markets, voters became 10 to 20 percentage points more likely to believe that candidate would win, regardless of what polls showed.
That effect cuts both directions. A candidate showing 33% odds on a leading market saw their perceived electability drop by 11 percentage points. At 16% odds, the penalty widened to 19 points. The Brennan Center found those shifts equal to or stronger than the influence of candidate background traits like demographics, occupation, or prior experience.
Accuracy remains a separate question. Only 20% of respondents consider prediction markets reliable, while just one-third believe election contracts reflect broader public sentiment. Still, the markets have scored notable wins, including the 2024 presidential election and Zohran Mamdani’s commanding lead in the 2025 New York City mayoral race.
The regulatory appetite breaks down unevenly. Twenty-three percent of those surveyed want specific political contracts halted, while 16% support shutting down the industry entirely. As these platforms deepen their media ties, that enforcement question grows harder to ignore.
