Rejoining the EU single market could deliver a £92bn economic windfall and hand Andy Burnham a general election victory, according to fresh analysis that frames the move as both a political jackpot and an economic reset.
The pitch comes from Nick Boles, a former Conservative minister now advising Labour, who wants the new prime minister to negotiate a “European Confederation” with Brussels. The arrangement would unlock single market access and youth mobility without requiring free movement or Eurozone membership.
Boles argues the move would inflict a “devastating” blow on both the Tories and Reform UK. It would also cement Burnham’s legacy alongside Tony Blair’s, given that his Makerfield constituency voted 64 per cent to leave the EU in 2016.
Research commissioned by pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain suggests that rejoining the bloc would recover at least 90 per cent of the economic damage caused by Brexit. Frontier Economics conducted the study.
Tom Brufatto, the group’s executive director of policy and research, said polling shows voters overwhelmingly prefer full EU membership over piecemeal alignment. He cited the £92bn GDP boost and the UK’s status as a G7 economy and military power as reasons why membership remains the only viable path to shaping single market rules.
Public opinion has shifted since the 2016 referendum. YouGov polling from June found 59 per cent of Britons now support closer EU ties, while just 20 per cent oppose them. Half favour rejoining the single market specifically.
However, economists remain split. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM, cautioned that rejoining under previous terms would bring the biggest benefit but represents a “harder sell” politically. He noted the UK would struggle to attract renewed investment and migration, given its relative underperformance compared with Ireland and other European rivals.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank analysts say re-entry would remove the bulk of Brexit-era trade friction, particularly for services, where British exporters hold structural advantages. They estimate that restoring single market membership would reverse the 4 per cent long-run productivity loss attributed to Brexit.
Yet the sovereignty trade-off remains stark. Membership demands accepting all four freedoms, including free movement, plus budget contributions and EU regulation shaped without British input.
Those remain red lines no government has crossed.
