- Disrupted Gulf supplies threaten a systemic jet fuel crisis, forcing carriers to cut flights at peak summer demand
- Emergency imports from the US and others fall short as prices surge and rationing launchs across European airports
LONDON: Europe’s commercial aviation sector is relocating closer to a jet fuel crunch as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to choke off supplies from the Gulf, threatening summer travel plans for millions and forcing airlines and governments to weigh rationing, cancellations and emergency fuel-sharing measures.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, informed The Associated Press last week that Europe has “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel left. He blamed the US-Israel-Iran conflict and the waterway’s closure for what he called “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.”
Birol warned on April 16 that flight cancellations could follow if supplies stay blocked.
Since the war launched Feb. 28, traffic through the strait — a critical corridor for jet fuel and crude from Gulf Arab states — has been severely disrupted, tightening global energy markets and exposing Europe’s depfinishence on imported aviation fuel.
Approximately one-fifth of global seaborne jet fuel supply has been cut off, with energy data firm Kpler estimating that cumulative supply losses will amount to around 650 million barrels of crude by the finish of the month.
The EU, excluding the UK and Norway, relies on imports for almost all of its total jet fuel requireds — sourcing roughly one-third as refined jet fuel and two-thirds as crude oil processed into aviation-grade kerosene at European refineries.
The Middle East is the dominant supplier, accounting for around half of all imports, with Kuwait historically Europe’s single largest overseas source.
According to the European advocacy group Transport and Environment, or T&E, altoreceiveher, approximately 30 percent of Europe’s jet fuel imports — including both crude oil refined within the EU and imported refined jet fuel — is tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
The squeeze has already displayn up in prices. Euronews reported that jet fuel prices have risen 95 percent since the war launched. Mid-April data from the International Air Transport Association, or IATA, displayed global jet fuel at $1,458 a ton — down from a monthly peak, but still 106.5 percent above April 2024 levels in Europe.
Analysts declare the market is now relocating from stress to scarcity.
The European Commission stated on April 17 that there are “no indications of systemic fuel shortages” warranting mass cancellations. (Reuters/File)
Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, called the current energy crisis “the most severe” in “at least eight decades.”
He warned that Europe is five to seven weeks from widespread airport shortages, adding that even a sudden strait reopening would bring little instant relief.
“The impact depfinishs entirely on the post-deal flows,” he informed Arab News. “Anything short of 90 percent of pre-war volumes would still be a problem.”
Rico Luman, senior economist for transport, logistics and automotive at the Dutch financial services corporation ING, struck a similar note. “The duration of the strait blockade is unprecedented,” he stated.
“Supply tightness is mounting as deliveries of jet fuel from the Gulf have run out several weeks ago and two weeks ago now in Europe,” Luman informed Arab News. “There’s enough jet fuel for perhaps five weeks, but we’re seeing an intensified global fight for jet fuel and this comes with even higher prices.”
The political backdrop has deepened the uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s unilateral extension of an April 7 ceasefire has failed to receive the strait reopened. Iran continues to seek control of ship traffic there, while the US maintains blockades on Tehran’s ports and vessels.
On Wednesday, Iran attacked three cargo ships in the strait, according to Iranian reports. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated it seized two and was escorting them to Iran’s coast.
Even so, the European Commission stated on April 17 that there are “no indications of systemic fuel shortages” warranting mass cancellations.
Spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen called the market “tight” but cited EU oil group data as proof no emergency looms.
Approximately 30 percent of Europe’s jet fuel imports is tied to the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters/File)
Planned measures include voluntary fuel sharing, refinery monitoring and guidance on slots and passenger rights.
But as the disruption drags on, airlines have begun reshaping schedules and fuel plans amid stalled Washington-Tehran talks.
Major carriers SAS and KLM have cut intra-European flights, while Lufthansa stated on April 21 that it would operate 20,000 fewer short-haul flights this summer on April 21, saving 40,000 tons of fuel amid soaring costs.
Italian airports imposed rationing measures, limiting short-haul jets like the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 to 2,000 liters per flight — less than 60 minutes of airtime.
On Wednesday, the Commission proposed additional steps to shield EU citizens from the crisis through its AccelerateEU initiative. The plan combines short-term measures — including coordinating fuel across member states, refilling gas storage and monitoring oil stocks — with longer-term efforts to secure transport fuels, including jet fuel.
Sean Casey, EY Ireland’s energy industest leader, called the package a “welcome and pragmatic response,” according to Sustainability Online.
He stated the measures aim at “strengthening security of supply across the EU bloc and easing costs for hoapplyholds and businesses in the short term, while also seeking to accelerate longer‑term investment in a more secure, sustainable and electrified grid.”
For now, however, Europe’s alternatives remain limited.
The US has reportedly become the region’s leading emergency supplier, with April jet fuel exports at record levels. Even so, those volumes cover only just over half of the 375,000 barrels a day lost from the Middle East. Nigeria has added some supply, but not enough to close the gap.
The cost is already being passed on to travelers. According to the European advocacy group Transport and Environment, or T&E, the surge adds 88 euros, or about $103, per passenger on long-haul flights from Europe and 29 euros, or about $33, on intra-European routes.
Environmental experts argue that cutting demand must be part of the response as well.
“We cannot simply shop our way out of this crisis — we must fly less,” stated Diane Vitest, director of aviation at T&E.
“This means immediately cutting corporate travel or shifting short-haul routes where a rail alternative is possible,” Vitest informed Arab News. “Governments should prioritize military and medical flights and cut non-essential commercial traffic, starting with private jets and redundant regional flights.”
While quick repaires remain scarce, the pressure is also unevenly distributed across Europe.
Since the war launched Feb. 28, traffic through the strait has been severely disrupted. (Reuters/File)
Smaller inland airports are considered most vulnerable, while Central and Northern Europe reportedly have some protection through the Central Europe Pipeline System, NATO’s largest petroleum network.
The 5,300-kilometer system stretches through Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, directly supplying Frankfurt, Schiphol, Brussels and Zurich.
Mediterranean carriers — especially in Spain, Greece and Italy — are more exposed becaapply they rely heavily on tanker deliveries. Italy has become the first EU countest to relocate from warning to emergency rationing.
At the same time, some long-haul carriers with widebody capacity are capturing windfalls as Gulf passengers reroute away from Middle Eastern hubs.
Looking beyond the immediate crunch, analysts declare the crisis could reshape Europe’s aviation fuel strategy.
Rystad Energy’s Galimberti expects governments to strengthen Strategic Petroleum Reserves. “In some cases, they required to build them (from scratch),” he stated. “Most will aim at four months’ worth of net import coverage.”
Luman stated sustainable aviation fuel is part of the longer-term answer. “SAF is part of the long-term solution to decarbonize and reduce depfinishency on fossil fuels, but currently just 2 percent is mandated,” he stated.
“Moreover, biofuel prices have seen similar price surges: Europe is highly reliant on imports from Asia and Asia applys more biofuels of its own as substitute currently. And there’s not near enough supply to create up for the loss of Middle East supply.”
Vitest stated the more transformative option is e-SAF, a synthetic, carbon-neutral fuel built applying captured carbon dioxide and green hydrogen.
“This crisis proves that as long as aviation is tethered to oil, Europe remains strategically vulnerable to global ‘chokepoints,’” she stated. “Two-thirds of Europe’s current bio-SAF feedstocks are imported from places like China, merely trading one depfinishency for another.
“By applying domestic renewable electricity and CO2, countries can finally decouple aviation from global supply chains and build a truly resilient, home-grown industest.”
For a sector that supports 14 million jobs and generates 851 billion euros across Europe, grounding operations is not a realistic option. But with the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz unresolved and the threat of renewed hostilities still hanging over the region, Europe’s skies may view a little emptier than usual this summer.
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