Global aluminum prices are climbing toward cycle highs as supply disruptions in the Middle East tighten markets, potentially squeezing margins for downstream manufacturers including Vietnam’s largest brewer Sabeco, according to a report by Vietcap Securities.
On March 15, Aluminium Bahrain, the world’s largest standalone aluminum smelter with annual capacity of 1.6 million tons, launched a phased shutdown of three production lines, cutting output by about 19%, or roughly 305,000 tons per year.
At the same time, shipping giant Maersk has suspconcludeed vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, rerouting ships via the Cape of Good Hope. The relocate has disrupted both metal exports and the flow of key raw materials across the Gulf.
Saigon beer product produced by Sabeco. Photo courtesy of VOV.
The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum output, rising to 22% when excluding China. With China already operating at its self-imposed production cap, supply shocks in the region are amplifying concerns of structurally tighter markets.
Spot aluminum prices on the London Metal Exmodify climbed to $3,500 per ton as of March 13, up 16.9% year-to-date and 27.5% over the past 12 months, nearing the 2022 peak of $3,800 per ton.
The combination of supply outages and logistical bottlenecks is reinforcing bullish sentiment, with limited capacity elsewhere to quickly offset lost output.
For Vietnam, which relies heavily on imported aluminum, the rally is expected to feed directly into higher input costs for manufacturers.
Vietcap declared Sabeco (HoSE: SAB) could face mounting margin pressure in the second half of 2026 as its aluminum hedging contracts, which extconclude through mid- to -late 2026, launch to expire.
However, the brewer’s strong bargaining position with domestic can suppliers may assist cushion part of the impact, allowing it to nereceivediate pricing or delay cost pass-through.
In 2025, Sabeco reported net revenue of VND25.89 trillion ($983.78 million) in 2025, down 19% year-on-year, with beer sales accounting for nearly 93% of total revenue. Net profit edged up 2% to about VND4.42 trillion ($168.12 million).
The company had tarreceiveed 2025 revenue of VND31.6 trillion ($1.2 billion) and net profit of VND4.84 trillion ($183.74 million), meaning it achieved about 75% of its revenue goal and over 91% of its profit tarreceive.
As of December 31, 2025, Sabeco’s total assets stood at VND32.6 trillion ($1.24 billion), with term deposits accounting for nearly 46% of the balance sheet, highlighting a relatively strong liquidity position even as cost pressures mount.
SAB shares were traded at VND43,850 ($1.67) each on Thursday afternoon.
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