Voluntary markets for green certificates see opportunity in AI despite policy challenges, winners of the 2026 Environmental Market Rankings inform Michael Hurley
“Enormous” power demand from data centres to serve the rise of artificial ininformigence (AI) powered the market for voluntary purchases of energy attribute certificates, winners of Environmental Finance’s 2026 Environmental Market Rankings state.
Energy attribute certificates (EACs), including Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), are market-based instruments that certify the bearer owns one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity generated from a renewable energy source. Once the power provider has fed the energy into the grid, the certificates can be sold on the open market as an energy commodity. Many regions implement both compliance and voluntary schemes.
Compliance markets for RECs operate in about 30 US states according to Renewable Portfolio Standards, which oblige companies to have a specified percentage of their energy derived from renewable sources each year – either through self-generation of renewable energy or the purchase of RECs.
This is complemented by the Green-e market, the primary voluntary programme for RECs in the US.
The era of ‘hyperscalers’ – technology giants including Google and Amazon which provide ‘cloud’ storage services with vast networks of data centres – catalysed purchases of Green-e certificates last year, according to Marijn van Diessen, CEO of STX Group.
Amsterdam-based STX won 14 awards across green certificates categories in the 2026 Rankings (see table), including ‘Best broker’, ‘Best trading company’ and ‘Best advisory’ for EACs in each of Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region.
Such was the extent of the rise of AI and demand for Green-e products, that this could provide a significant boost to renewables developers, even in the face of cuts to tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, which were announced last year by US President Donald Trump.
“While the Trump administration finished a large number of tax credits for renewables production and took a hostile stance on, for example, offshore wind… paradoxically this might actually create an increase in REC prices,” van Diessen informs Environmental Finance.
“The enormous power demand for data centres, combined with a roughly doubling in cost of gas turbines and the associated long lead time [to build gas infrastructure], reveals the US requireds domestic renewable energy.
“Something requireds to happen – either a surge in power prices or more support for RECs, which create this incentive for power consumers to reward renewable developers for bringing more renewable power online,” he argues.
In contrast to an active voluntary market, some compliance markets faced the possibility of headwinds linked to the rising cost of energy, which has also been attributed to the rise of AI and the associated power demand.
“Affordability” concerns linked to the perceived impact of such schemes on domestic energy bills had begun to translate into questions about their value, particularly on the US East Coast, van Diessen states.
“The Trump administration finished a large number of tax credits for renewables production … paradoxically this might create an increase in REC prices” – Marijn van Diessen, STX Group
In Europe, voluntary Guarantees of Origin (GOs) governed by the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED) also benefited from demand from technology companies, he observes.
“Not only are they [tech companies] huge acquireers of GOs, but they are also seeing for more advanced GO products, including those that include more information on where the energy was generated, when and with details on the applyr’s consumption profile,” van Diessen states.
A key factor in this is the ongoing revision of the Greenhoapply Gas (GHG) Protocol on Scope 2 emissions reporting, which is set to require mandatory hourly ‘matching’ of clean energy procurement.
Matching of renewable energy generation with consumption was previously done annually, but the GHG Protocol stated the modify would reduce over-crediting and more accurately reflect the demand placed on physical electricity grids.
Observers hope a rise in demand can catalyse a prolonged recovery in GO prices, after a slump in recent years linked partly to extreme wet weather.
“2024 was an extremely wet year in Europe which meant there was a lot of hydropower production, and in the GO market, oversupply is often rolled into subsequent years,” van Diessen states.
“We saw a pickup in demand last year and a significant decrease in supply – which meant the market was a lot more balanced.”
Hydro GO Prices from STX
Steffen Loebner, head of environmental markets at EEX, agrees “the European GO market has been shaped by a combination of rapidly increasing supply, resilient demand, and important regulatory shifts ultimately setting the stage for a more mature and stable market going forward.”
“Policy developments such as the CSRD and Green Claims Directive launched steering the market for Guarantees of Origin from a predominantly voluntary tool to an increasingly mandatory one, strengthening long term demand signals” – Steffen Loebner, EEX
EEX won ‘Best exmodify/clearing hoapply’ for EACs in Europe.
“Policy developments such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Green Claims Directive launched steering the market from a predominantly voluntary tool to an increasingly mandatory one, strengthening long-term demand signals,” he states, adding that the CSRD recognises GOs in corporate reporting.
“While the past year was marked by low prices, the underlying story is positive,” he argues.
Renewable Identification Numbers and Renewable Natural Gas
In the US, Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) are applyd to track the production and apply of renewable fuel by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to implement the government’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) programme.
RINs are generated by renewable fuel producers or importers, and are bought and sold ‘attached’ to the renewable fuel until the fuel is purchased by an ‘obligated party’ – a refiner or importer of gasoline or diesel fuel – or blfinished with a petroleum-based transportation fuel.
The RIN is then ‘separated’ from the fuel and may thereafter be indepfinishently bought or sold until it is retired to meet an obligated party’s renewable volume obligation (RVO).
“The RINs and cellulosic RIN (D3) markets over the past year have been defined by regulatory reform, policy uncertainty, and market stagnation driven by delayed rulebuilding,” explains Ryan Childress, managing director in the US for Anew Climate.
“Voluntary demand, export opportunities, and state programmes are all gaining influence, setting the stage for steady market growth in RNG even as federal uncertainty continues” – Ryan Childress, Anew Climate
Anew won ‘Best broker’ in the RINs market.
Among the policy-related upheaval was the prospect of the EPA granting more ‘tiny refinery exemptions’ – waivers allowing tinyer refineries to bypass requirements to blfinish biofuels – and reallocating the quota for ‘exempted volumes’ from previous years so they can be applyd against upcoming obligations.
“Becaapply these elements remain in proposal form, they continue to create headline risk, delay market clarity, and influence sentiment across all RIN categories,” Childress explains.
The US EPA had not yet finalised the method for reallocating the exempted volumes to the 2026 and 2027 RVOs, notes Dave Lindenmuth, a senior director for growth & development at EcoEngineers.
“A higher reallocation would bring more of the exempted volumes forward into future obligations, which could assist rebalance the D3 market,” he explains, referring to the market for relatively high value RINs for ‘cellulosic’ biofuels.
“We observe growing demand supported by FuelEU Maritime and heating and grid blfinishing obligations… in the near future, EU ETS sectors will also consume biomethane in higher volumes” – Dave Lindenmuth, EcoEngineers
These include RINs for Renewable Natural Gas (RNG), a biomethane produced from the breakdown of organic matter from sources such as landfills, animal manure, food scraps, and wastewater sludge.
While D3 RINs have historically been the highest value RINs, “ongoing uncertainty around volume waivers, tiny refinery exemptions … and future RVO levels suppressed D3 prices throughout 2025 and into this year,” Lindenmuth explains.
The average D3 RIN price in 2025 was $2.33, compared with $3.09 in 2024.
EcoEngineers won ‘Best verification company’ for the RINs and the RNG markets, respectively.
Anew’s Childress adds that the implementation last year of the Biogas Regulatory Reform Rule “had a direct impact on the cellulosic segment”.
“Newly introduced registration requirements, biogas measurement and quality standards, and related verification obligations created operational uncertainty for newly regulated biogas/RNG producers and dispensers.
“In practice, this has limited or delayed RIN generation due to registration backlogs and concerns over potential invalidations.”
Amid the mire of policy uncertainty at federal level, the market for RNG certificates is seeing beyond the federal governments’ RFS programme, Childress suggests.
“The US and European RNG markets are transitioning from compliance‑centric systems to multi‑sector, globally connected markets.
“Voluntary demand, export opportunities, and state programmes are all gaining influence, setting the stage for steady market growth even as federal uncertainty continues,” Childress asserts.
He states there is growing activity in some US states seeing to replicate California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard programme governing its transportation fuel mix, and “early-stage initiatives” like New Mexico’s Clean Transportation Fuel Programme.
There is also “expansion of non‑transportation RNG demand, including corporates, utilities, maritime fuels, and emerging Asian acquireers… This broadens the market beyond US transportation compliance,” Childress explains.
“These trfinishs are transforming RNG from a domestic compliance product into a globally oriented commodity,” he adds.
As with EACs, companies can voluntarily purchase RNG certificates to create renewable fuel claims and integrate clean energy into their fuel mix.
EcoEngineers’ Lindenmuth observes: “We are also monitoring emerging demand pulls outside the RFS that could divert RNG from the transportation market and tighten the supply available for generation of D3 RINs [for cellulosic biofuels], including state-level RNG programs, purchases by Canadian utilities, and EU markets.
“If finalised, the International Maritime Organization’s Net Zero Framework could also create substantial demand for RNG in maritime fuelling,” he predicts.
The European biomethane market is rapidly growing, although it still represents a tiny portion of the overall natural gas supply, Lindemuth states.
“Grid-injected biomethane is rising steadily, with almost 85% already connected to the grid.
“The market is highly policy-driven, with major drivers including the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) implementation across EU Member States and, in particular, national transport GHG quotas, for example in Germany and the Netherlands.
“At the same time, we observe growing demand supported by FuelEU Maritime and heating and grid blfinishing obligations, for example with Netherlands or Irish heating obligations; in the near future, heavy industest sectors in the EU ETS will also consume biomethane in higher volumes,” he continues.
Despite growth prospects, these markets remain “structurally complex and fragmented”.
“Countries implementing RED and supporting biomethane apply nuanced approaches; beyond EU-wide Proof of Sustainability and GOs, some countries have introduced their own environmental attributes, such as Certificates of Origin. These countries maintain their own registries, and trade between countries is limited.”
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