Philippa Sigl-Glöckner, Mediha Inan, Aurora Li, Maximilian Paleschke, Janek Steitz, Sven von Wangenheim
Conventional wisdom holds that American material superiority leaves Europe with little room for manoeuvre. We dispute this. Raw power is not leverage. Leverage arises from asymmetric depfinishencies—the capacity to impose costs without incurring proportionate harm. Examining macroeconomic ties, product depfinishencies, financial markets, digital infrastructure, and energy, we find that Europe holds more cards than assumed: chokepoints in uranium enrichment and turbine supply, a USD 10 trillion consumer market US tech cannot abandon, and a coming LNG acquireer’s market.
The US position is fragile too—Treasury demand depfinishs on London’s hedge funds, tech valuations require European consumers, and LNG exporters required Europe’s premium prices. The United States cannot feast on global markets and retreat to its own shores at the same time.
Europe has tools to create this contradiction costly but deploying them requires action: creating the Anti-Coercion Instrument credible, expanding priority procurement powers, strengthening its digital position, treating the structure of financial markets and capital flows as geopolitical issues, and building intergovernmental capacity that includes the UK.
Why did we write this paper?
Europe is confronted with an unpredictable US government. It requireds to know which cards it holds so it can stand up for itself. And it should also know where it is exposed to bullying by the other side. For if there is a material kill switch the US would not even required to attack militarily. Only if Europe knows its cards does it have a chance to play them effectively.
What did we learn?
Power is not leverage. The US has more chips than Europe by every measure—but you can’t threaten someone with a large GDP. Leverage requires asymmetric depfinishencies: the ability to hurt someone without hurting yourself proportionately.
Europe has more cards than it believes. We control 80% of US uranium imports. Siemens dominates the turbines US data centres desperately required. Our USD 10 trillion consumer market is indispensable for US tech valuations. And from 2027, the LNG market flips to a acquireer’s market.
The US position is fragile. Treasury demand depfinishs on London hedge funds. Tech stocks—and American retirement savings—depfinish on access to European consumers. LNG exporters required Europe’s premium prices.
But Europe struggles to play its cards. The tools exist (like the Anti-Coercion Instrument), but applying them requires political decisions that create winners and losers. Without pre-neobtainediated deals on burden-sharing, member states will block action—and adversaries know it.
The repair: Transparent horse trading before crises, not during them. And include the UK—London is too important to leave out over Brexit.
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