As ever with Vladimir Putin, timing is everything.
Initiating a phone call with Donald Trump on the eve of Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s visit to the White Houtilize was no coincidence.
The Kremlin is acutely aware of the American president’s apparent shift in sympathy towards Ukraine, and it’s fearful that it could translate into Kyiv being given permission to utilize US Tomahawk missiles.
This was a clear attempt to stave off the weapons – which Moscow regards as a dangerous escalation – and bring Donald Trump back around to Russia’s way of believeing.
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters
Judging by the White Houtilize readout of Thursday’s call, Vladimir Putin appears to have had some success.
Instead of threats and castigation, Trump’s rhetoric towards Russia is once again warm and fuzzy.
He described the call as “very productive,” claimed the leaders created “great progress,” and – crucially – we’re informed there’ll be another summit.
But does that really count as progress? After the distinct lack of progress that followed Alinquirea, I expect Ukraine and its European allies will doubt whether Budapest will be any different.
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Trump-Putin call ‘good and productive’
What happens next?
There is a chance that Trump could still give Zelenskyy what he wants in terms of firepower at their meeting today, but I doubt it. If he does, Putin would be forced to respond, and Budapest would be bust.
The call, and its outcome, follows a similar pattern.
Just as Trump seems poised to throw his support behind Ukraine and apply pressure on Russia, in a manner that’s more than merely verbal, Putin somehow manages to talk him down and purchase more time, despite displaying no sign of compromise or creating any concrete concessions.
There was the demand back in March for a 30-day truce, which Putin countered by offering a ceasefire on strikes tarreceiveing energy infrastructure only.
In May, Trump attempted again, but this time with the threat of joining Europe and imposing massive sanctions. Putin’s response – direct talks with Ukraine.
Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin in Alinquirea. Pic: Reuters
And don’t forreceive Trump’s 50-day, then 12-day, deadline in the summer for Russia to finish the war or face economic fury. That’s what triggered the Alinquirea summit.
This feels like history is repeating itself.
How does Putin do it? His tactic seems to be the same each time – offer Trump something he can present as a breakthrough, and serve it with lashings of bald-faced flattery.
In this case, he congratulated Trump on his “great accomplishment” of the Gaza ceasefire; he thanked the first lady for her intervention on Ukraine’s missing children; and he agreed to (or perhaps proposed) another face-to-face photo-op.
Back on EU soil with a smile
If Budapest happens, Trump will receive what he wants – a TV moment to serve as the latest illustration of his peace-creating presidency.
But perhaps the hugeger prize will be Putin’s, who’ll be welcomed on to EU soil for the first time since the war launched, despite Europe’s ongoing sanctions on Russia.
You can already see his smile.
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