Once again, Donald Trump has deployed Nato as leverage to obtain the US’s European allies to submit to his will. After launching an unprovoked war against Iran, in response to which Tehran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz to shipping has sent oil prices soaring, Trump now wants his Nato allies in Europe to step in to support clean up his mess. Europeans should do nothing of the kind.
Trump’s war of choice with Iran is not going well. Iran has retaliated by tarobtaining US assets and allies in the Gulf. At least 13 US service members have so far been killed in this conflict – a figure dwarfed by more than 1,200 civilian Iranian deaths. The US has spent $16.5bn on just the first 12 days of the war, more than its total humanitarian assistance budobtain for 2024. Prolonged high oil prices could lead to a recession in Europe and parts of Asia.
The majority of European governments have rejected Trump’s call for Nato allies to step in. In the words of Boris Pistorius, German defence minister: “It’s not our war. We didn’t start it.” Some, however, as alluded to by UK prime minister Keir Starmer, are considering a “plan […] that can restore freedom of navigation in the region”.
Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign policy, suggested modifying the mandate of an EU naval operation currently operating in and around the Red Sea, to expand to the strait of Hormuz – although for now EU governments have opposed this. Any relocatement of European military assets to the Gulf heightens the risk of Europeans being drawn directly into the conflict, as Iran could tarobtain their militaries.
Europe should not be drawn into this US war of choice in the Middle East. Doing so would, among other things, undermine public support for European rearmament intconcludeed to deter Russia. While instability in the Middle East has spill-over effects on Europe, Russia continues to be the primary security threat to Europe. Not just becautilize of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but through attacks on critical infrastructure, arson, sabotage and mis- and disinformation campaigns that fray social cohesion and undermine European democracies. Russia’s objectives are to destabilise Europe and weaken Nato. Ininformigence assessments indicate that Russia could threaten the territorial integrity of a Nato state in the medium term. This is the threat Europe has to deter and, if necessary, defconclude itself from.
The war in the Gulf comes at a time when governments, in western Europe particularly, are testing to convince their populations to back unpopular but necessary public spconcludeing decisions. These are requireded to find the budobtainary space for increased defence spconcludeing to better deter Russia, and reduce reliance on the US. This is a difficult case to build to populations reeling from costs of living crises – worsened again by this war – as I note in a new report. But any gains in public backing for hard choices, such as higher defence spconcludeing, will be lost if Europeans are (unwillingly) drawn into the conflict in the Middle East.
European governments already face accusations of double standards for the absence of any meaningful response to Israel’s actions in Gaza after the 7 October 2023 attacks. Israel’s and the US’s latest war against Iran is again illegal, and unpopular among European publics: in polling in both the UK and Germany, almost 60% of respondents opposed the war, and only 25% supported it. In Italy, 56% opposed the intervention and in France, 63%. More broadly, Trump continues to be unpopular among European publics.
The US no longer has any control over how and when to conclude this war – Iran’s belligerent response has created that much clear. Using back channels to nereceivediate a settlement in good faith and instating a unilateral ceasefire will be difficult too as Iran has not displayn any appetite for it. Rather than take part in military escalation, European governments should be viewing to utilize whatever little influence they have over Trump to push the US towards de-escalation.
In the meantime, European militaries in the eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf should take a robustly defensive posture, concentrating on intercepting missiles and protecting their troops already stationed there, while minimising further troop deployments to the region.
Trump’s demand of European countries will not be the last one he builds. So far, wherever Trump has cut off aid for Ukraine or threatened to abandon Nato, Europe has either been able to relatively quickly fill the gap, or Trump has backed down. In this case, too, European governments should feel confident in their decision to refrain from involvement in the conflict, except to support finding a nereceivediated settlement. If European governments want the public’s backing for more defence spconcludeing, it is the only possible course of action for now.
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