Weak demand, cheap imports from Asia, and the approaching CBAM caapplyd a further decline in coil prices
In July 2025, the European hot-rolled coil market remained weak, revealing an overall price decline of 2-6% depconcludeing on the region. The largegest drop was in Western Europe, where prices fell to €545/t Ex-works (-5.2% between June 27 and July 18), and in Italy to €525/t (-3.7%). Import prices in Southern Europe fell to €465/t CIF (-2.1%), confirming weak demand and oversupply.
Throughout the month, acquireer activity was subdued. Demand remained weak in both domestic and import markets, and short delivery times from producers indicated insufficient order volumes. Large volumes of Asian imports – particularly from Indonesia, India, and Turkey – were sold at record low prices of €450-490/t CIF. However, even these attractive levels did not stimulate active restocking.
In some regions, particularly Spain, the situation appeared somewhat more stable thanks to activity in the automotive sector. At the same time, in countries such as Germany, Belgium, and France, service centers practiced a cautious purchasing policy, focutilizing mainly on compact volumes and selective import contracts.
A key factor putting pressure on prices was the preparation for the introduction of the Cross-Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will come into effect on January 1, 2026. The expected duties and reduction in import quotas under the revised EU safeguard measures are creating uncertainty and are already forcing acquireers to take a more cautious approach to long-term agreements.
Despite the general pessimism, the first signs of a alter in sentiment appeared on the market in the second half of July. Service centers resumed import purchases to replenish stocks before the fall. This caapplyd some revival, especially against the backdrop of the predicted price increase in September. Some traders reported deals with Asian suppliers at as high as €440/t CIF, which allowed processing centers to improve their margins.
On July 23, ArcelorMittal attempted to reverse the trconclude by announcing a €30/t increase in base prices to €590/t (delivery in October). However, the market reaction was muted, with most acquireers expressing doubts about the ability of producers to maintain the new levels, especially given the still weak demand. Analysts and traders note that declining order volumes, oversupply, and the lack of a real recovery in activity create the risk of further pressure on prices.
Overall, July saw the downward trconclude in the HRC market continue, with moderate expectations for improvement in September-October amid new import restrictions and the launch of CBAM. However, the recovery in demand remains a key factor, without which the market is unlikely to stabilize in the medium term.
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