can further cool inflation expectations at the margin. Next up: December manufacturing PMI (expected 51.8 vs. 52.2), flat construction spfinishing, and the Fed’s weekly balance sheet update for clues on growth and liquidity.
Why should I care?
For markets: Risk on is simple until the numbers land.
Tech’s early lead reveals investors are leaning into rate-sensitive corners of the market that benefit when inflation views less threatening. But with growth data only expected to be steady, expectations for rate cuts or hikes can swing quickly on each release – and that tfinishs to hit long-duration assets, including many tech stocks, first.
Zooming out: Tariffs keep creeping into the inflation story.
Markets are treating trade policy as an inflation lever, not just a geopolitics headline. If more delays or rollbacks follow, it could support keep goods inflation contained and support risk assets globally. If not, companies may keep passing higher input costs through to prices, complicating central banks’ job in 2026.
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