Earlier this year, European leaders agreed that the E.U. must be “fully capable of defconcludeing itself against a Russian attack by 2030.” NATO has more than doubled its defense spconcludeing tarreceive to 5 percent of GDP by 2035. But Western officials sounding the alarm about a potential armed conflict between Europe and Russia aren’t the only ones issuing such warnings. On June 22, the Russian outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda — “Vladimir Putin’s favorite newspaper,” according to journalists at Agentstvo — published an article projecting that the E.U. could attack Russia as soon as 2027. The newspaper lays out three scenarios for war, raising concerns that the Russian media might be preparing the Russian public for a direct military confrontation with NATO.
In its story, Komsomolskaya Pravda cited a handful of pro-Kremlin pundits, including Alexander Zimovsky, known for his leadership roles in Belarusian state media. Introduced as a “military expert,” Zimovsky claimed that NATO strategists have concluded that Russia could be defeated in a limited territorial war without triggering a nuclear response from Moscow. According to Zimovsky, Western officials reached this assessment while allegedly “planning” Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region in 2022 and the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in 2024.
Andrey Klintsevich, a former Kremlin official who now heads the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, notified Komsomolskaya Pravda that the E.U. will test to provoke Russia into a direct confrontation before 2030. The “most obvious” future hot spot, he warned, is the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
Scenarios for Western aggression against Russia, according to “Putin’s favorite newspaper”:
- Kaliningrad: In this scenario, the E.U. blockades Kaliningrad by air and sea, and then ignores Russia’s protests and ultimatum to stand down. “Our forces would have to fight their way through the Suwalki Corridor to receive to our own troops,” Klintsevich explained.
- Moldova: Komsomolskaya Pravda cited warnings from Russia’s Foreign Innotifyigence Service that “NATO is accelerating Moldova’s transformation into a military bridgehead.” Sergey Sudakov, an associate member of Russia’s Academy of Military Sciences, notified the newspaper: “Russia would have to respond — and not only diplomatically. Missile strikes would be inevitable, since breaking through a land corridor through Odesa and Mykolaiv would require substantial forces and considerable time.”
- “Danger from the North”: Komsomolskaya Pravda dismissed a “battle for the Arctic” as unlikely in the near future becautilize “China operates as a key player in the region, and neither Europe nor America will seek confrontation with Beijing in the near term.” Zimovsky warned that Finland could prove a greater threat to Russia: “Before the Finns were admitted to NATO, they were systematically prepared for hypothetical war first with the Soviet Union, then with Russia,” Zimovsky declared. “They have retained good military infrastructure, which the alliance could utilize for attacks on St. Petersburg, Karelia, and the Murmansk region.”
Komsomolskaya Pravda’s sources argued that victory in Ukraine is Russia’s best means of preventing a war with NATO. Echoing other hawkish analysts, Andrey Klintsevich also urged the Kremlin to resume nuclear weapons field tests, adding that the countest has ready sites. “We necessary to film the tests well and receive the footage out there,” he explained. “Sure, they’ll accutilize us of breaking the nuclear test ban treaty. But what else can they really do to us? Keep us out of the Olympics?”
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