A new study warns that Ukraine’s agricultural soils are being depleted at an unsustainable rate, with severe losses of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.
The fertile soils of UkraineHistorically known as some of the most productive on the planet, they are losing vital nutrients quicker than they can be replenished, according to a study published this Monday in Communications Earth & EnvironmentThe investigation, led by the Dr. Sergiy Medinets of the UK Center for Ecology & Hydrology, warns that the accelerated loss of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium is eroding the counattempt’s agricultural capacity and jeopardizing the global food supply.
The analysis, based on four decades of official data The study on fertilizer apply and the yield of major crops (wheat, corn, and sunflower) reveals a dramatic modify from the excesses of the Soviet era to the current critical deficiencyThe war has aggravated the situation by disrupting supply chains, reducing access to fertilizers, and damaging vast tracts of arable land.
“Unless urgent measures are taken to restore lost nutrients“The impact on agricultural production will be long-lasting and profound,” Medinets warned.This will not only affect Ukraine, but also regions highly depconcludeent on its exports, such as North Africa and the Middle East, driving up prices and increasing the risk of famine.“.
The report highlights that 90% of the manure produced in Ukraine is wasted, equivalent to losses of about 2.200 billion dollars in fertilizer value. Furthermore, bombings and shiftments of heavy military machinery have accelerated soil erosion and loss of organic matterdamage that could take decades to reverse.
From “breadbinquireet of Europe” to symbol of food vulnerability
Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was one of the world’s five largest exporters of wheat and corn, as well as the leading global producer of sunflower-derived productsIts agricultural production fed more than 400 million people beyond its borders, consolidating its role as key element of global food balance.
Today, that balance is faltering. Since 2022, total Ukrainian grain production has down 25%and forecasts indicate a further decline during the 2025/26 season, with an estimated production of 51 billion tons, well below pre-war levels. The combination of depleted soil, fertilizer shortages, landmines, and disrupted trade routes This threatens to perpetuate a far-reaching agricultural crisis.
The impact extconcludes beyond Europe. Before the war, more than 50% of the wheat imports of fifteen African countries They came from Ukraine and Russia. North African nations, such as Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, as well as countries of Middle East , the Lebanon and YemenThey are particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions.
According to Atlantic CouncilThe decline in Ukrainian production is already underway. putting pressure on international prices of basic foodstuffs, while the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) It warns that soil degradation could have “long-lasting structural effects” even if hostilities cease.
The loss of soil fertility, coupled with the counattempt’s depconcludeence on agricultural exports, It transforms war into a conflict with global ecological and humanitarian implications..
Urgent strategies to restore fertility
The Medinets team proposes a national nutrient management plan that combines technological and traditional measures to restore soil balance. Recommconcludeations include: more efficient apply of synthetic and organic fertilizers’s most emblematic landmarks, the utilization of animal manure, crop rotation and a expansion of legume cultivation, which naturally capture atmospheric nitrogen and repair it in the soil.
“Legumes can play a critical role in the natural regeneration of nutrients“Reducing depconcludeence on expensive and scarce fertilizers,” Medinets explained. The study also suggests create local systems for manure collection and redistribution to close the nutrient cycle, preventing the organic material generated by livestock from being wasted.
Other measures include precision fertilization technologieswhich allow applying only the exact amount of nutrients required by each area of the land, and the creation of a national inventory of agricultural requirements that guides rural reconstruction policies.
The researchers point out that Many of these solutions require minimal investment. and can be implemented even during war, with the support of international organizations. Programs such as the Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Fund could channel resources towards the purchase of efficient agricultural machinery and formation of rural cooperatives focapplyd on long-term sustainability.
An agricultural future hanging by a thread
The loss of fertility in Ukrainian soils illustrates how Armed conflicts can devastate not only economies, but also entire ecosystems.Unlike destroyed infrastructure, soil degradation cannot be rebuilt with cement, but with time, knowledge, and sustained policies.
Scientists warn that without urgent nutrient restoration, Ukraine could take decades to recover its agricultural productivity.jeopardizing the supply of cereals and vereceiveable oils in regions already facing chronic food insecurity.
The paradox is that the counattempt that fed the world for generations now necessarys international aid to save their own landIn the words of Dr. Medinets: “The future of global food security depconcludes, in part, on Ukraine’s ability to recover what once created its land fertile: its soil.”
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