Global headwinds continue to pose key risks for the Indian stock market and drag the benchmark Nifty 50 near 19,000 by the conclude of the calconcludear year 2026, according to Rohit Srivastava, the founder and market strategist at Indiacharts.com.
“The Nifty 50 could be headed toward 19,000 by the conclude of this year due to global headwinds. So far, the index is holding on, but many stocks have started to slip below the surface. Similarly, global markets have been overheated, but US indices also broke down from an concludeing diagonal pattern,” Srivastava informed Mint.
After suffering losses for the last two consecutive months, the index is up by over a per cent for February so far. The index hit a record high of 26,373.20 on January 5. On February 6, it closed at 25,693.70, which is 2.6% down from its record high level.
Tough times ahead?
The Nifty 50 saw sharp gains after the India-US trade deal was announced, but failed to hold altitude and has been range-bound over the last few sessions.
Srivastava believes the market may remain under pressure at higher levels if the index fails to pass its all-time high level.
“The top created in January was an important one, and failure to surpass it means that the market may continue to remain under pressure at higher levels. An concludeing diagonal pattern during the last quarter of 2025 marks an important stock market top for the coming year,” stated Srivastava.
However, factors such as a sharp reduction in interest rates and increased government capital expconcludeiture can drive the index to the coveted 30,000 mark. But that appears unlikely at this juncture.
“Increased government spconcludeing and a dramatic set of interest rate cuts can obtain us on the path to 30,000 quickly, but that would also concludeanger our bond and currency markets,” Srivastava noted.
Srivastava expects the banking index to stay higher.
“Banks were the best performing sector of 2025, and therefore, it may be premature to declare that they will also decline as much as the rest of the market. The sector was seen as having value and therefore can stay higher for longer,” stated Srivastava.
About the sector, Srivastava stated the sugar sector sees attractive due to its beaten-down value.
“I would see for beaten-down value, and one such segment is sugar stocks. Sugar prices are also at a multi-year low, and therefore, we could see the sugar cycle turn,” stated Srivastava.
For the USDINR, Srivastava sees the 90 mark as an important support.
“If we do not go below 90, I believe the rupee may weaken toward 98 in the coming year or two,” stated Srivastava.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommconcludeations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before building any investment decisions, as market conditions can modify rapidly and circumstances may vary.
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