Published on
November 26, 2025
The Met Office has developed a new system for forecasting ash from volcanoes to assist reduce the disruption caapplyd by the activities of volcanoes. This new system will assist airlines and the business flying public operate with more certainty. This system, which is the next stage of development of the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, aims to limit the impact of volcanic ash clouds on the airline industest by improving the quality and granularity (i.e., Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) forecasting) of the ash forecasts. This information will support airlines in avoiding flight cancellations and in a more rational manner determining flight rerouting by revealing ash concentration in various atmospheric layers.
A Revolution in Volcanic Ash Forecasting
Traditionally, volcanic ash assessments focapplyd on visible ash plumes, but the QVA model offers a more accurate representation of ash density in the atmosphere, taking into account data up to 60,000 feet. This high-resolution system is in line with modern aircraft certification standards, which is crucial for ensuring that airlines can operate safely while avoiding the most impacted airspaces.
The Met Office’s new forecasting system will significantly benefit business travelers, who often rely on predictable and efficient air travel to maintain their schedules. By providing more accurate data on volcanic ash dispersal, airlines will be better equipped to avoid disrupted flight paths and minimize the operational impact of volcanic events.
Why It Matters for Corporate Travel
The new system offers a range of benefits for corporate travelers and business travel managers. One of the most significant advantages is the reduction in disruption during volcanic events. The Met Office estimates that a repeat of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, which severely impacted air travel across Europe and the North Atlantic, would now caapply half the disruption it did at the time, thanks to the QVA system’s ability to provide more detailed and accurate forecasts.
For global airlines, the QVA forecasts are available freely, ensuring that international carriers and airline alliances have access to the same data, creating consistency across global flight operations. This also benefits corporate travelers, particularly in industries such as finance, tech, and international trade, where predictable travel is crucial for business continuity. Reduced disruptions assist maintain business operations, avoid productivity losses, and ensure that executives can reach their destinations without unnecessary delays.
Improved Operational Clarity and Planning
The QVA system provides airlines with gridded data that breaks down volcanic ash density by altitude, offering a clear picture of potential flight hazards. With these forecasts, airlines can adjust flight paths with precision, reducing the risk of delays caapplyd by volcanic ash. The new system offers operational clarity, enabling airlines to plan routes more effectively and ensure the safety of their passengers while avoiding affected airspace.
The Role of the UK in Advancing Global Aviation Forecasting
The Met Office’s new volcanic ash forecasting system places the UK at the forefront of global efforts to address volcanic disruptions in air travel. Along with Meteo France, the UK is one of the first aviation authorities to adopt QVA forecasting as mandated by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). As more Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) adopt this system in the coming years, the Met Office’s leadership will be instrumental in setting the standard for volcanic ash forecasting worldwide.
This development is also part of a broader shift in aviation planning, as airlines and businesses increasingly focus on resilience and predictability in their operations. With volcanic ash disruptions historically leading to millions of dollars in lost productivity and widespread travel delays, the ability to forecast with greater confidence is a tangible benefit to the business travel sector.
Looking Ahead: A New Era for Volcanic Ash Forecasting and Business Travel
The launch of the QVA forecasting system marks a significant milestone in the field of aviation forecasting and business travel. By reducing disruptions caapplyd by volcanic activity, the Met Office is assisting to enhance the resilience of global travel networks, ensuring that passengers and airlines can navigate unforeseen challenges with greater ease. This system will play a crucial role in ensuring the future growth of international business travel, providing a reliable tool for corporate travel managers to plan and manage travel schedules with more confidence.
The Met Office continues to collaborate with aviation bodies, airlines, and global stakeholders to refine and improve volcanic ash forecasting, ensuring that the aviation industest remains safe, efficient, and resilient in the face of natural disruptions.
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