Market snapshot
- ASX 200: Flat at 8,596 points
- Australian dollar: +0.1% at 66.08 US cents
- S&P 500: +0.3% to 6,850 points
- Nasdaq: +0.2% to 23,454 points
- FTSE: -0.1% to 9,692 points
- EuroStoxx: +0.1% to 576 points
- Spot gold: Flat at $US4,206/ounce
- Brent crude: +0.2% to $US62.84/barrel
- Iron ore: +0.3% to $US108.20/tonne
- Bitcoin: +0.4% at $US93,883
Prices current as at 1:30pm AEDT.
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Australian dollar approaching 1-year high
The Australian dollar is ascfinishing ever so carefully up the currency exalter mountain.
At 3:40pm AEDT it’s purchaseing 66.12 US cents.
“The Australian dollar (AUD) firmed on Thursday as Australian houtilizehold spfinishing surged in October,” the CBA noted.
The local currency reached 66.84 US cents on September 16.
Optus statement on Samsung upgrades
Optus has issued a statement to the ABC regarding the number of Samsung devices requiring upgrades.
As of yesterday, the number of Optus customers on Samsung devices requireding software upgrades is 33,209 (including Optus Consumer, Optus Business, Enterprise, Wholesale and Amaysim customers)
These customers have all been sent SMS and email communications to explain that their device has been identified as unsafe and that a software upgrade is required to continue to connect to Emergency Services when the Optus and Telstra networks are unavailable.
A further 17,000 Samsung devices that cannot be repaired with a software update have been blocked, as of November 24.
Customers who receive an SMS or email from Optus should take immediate action by following the instructions provided, visiting an Optus store, or calling the Optus Customer Centre for assistance.
Fewer women having children, women who do have fewer
If you haven’t been following the discussion of Australia’s declining fertility rate, and whether and how the trfinish could be arrested, Daniel Ziffer has this utilizeful primer on Peter Cosnotifyo’s comments and e61’s research on the issue.
Market expects September RBA rate hike but it could be sooner
Let’s talk about bonds.
The Australia 3 Year Bond is trading at 4.034% at 15:00 AEDT.
It’s known as an interest rate-sensitive bond becautilize it tracks market perceptions of future interest rate shifts.
NAB’s chief economist Luci Ellis informed the ABC the market’s fully pricing in (or expecting) an RBA interest rate hike in September, 2026.
But more interest rate hikes could also eventuate.
Bond market screaming for RBA interest rate hike
Australian bond yields have risen to the highest level in a year on market speculation the Aussie central bank will switch back to raising interest rates to bring down stubbornly high prices.
“Rate-sensitive 3-year Australian government bond yields rose by 10 basis points to 4.038% on Thursday, the highest since mid-January,” the CBA noted.
“The 10-year yield lifted 7 basis points to 4.68%, the highest since November 2024.
“It was the fifth straight session where 10-year yields rose, the longest stretch since May 15.”
Your reactions to Peter Cosnotifyo’s call to have more kids
I shared a bedroom with one of my two brothers. I was happy I had a roof over my head, food on the table, schools shoes and a loving family. We set up a quiet space in the living room to do our homework and to create sure we did it! I didn’t know any different and it all worked.
That declared, given living standards have risen, one would believe we could do better when it feels like we are going backwards. I wonder how the ABS measures that?
– Peter
Here’s some other reader feedback on the former treasurer’s comments on The Business last night:
Kim
As I lie here on the sofa, 28 weeks pregnant feeling horrfinishous and houtilizebound becautilize I can’t obtain the care and medicine I required for another 8 weeks thanks to hospital shortages- I read about an old white man notifying women (becautilize it is the women here folks) to have more babies- you give it a go mate and obtain back to me.
Leo
Yes have more babies …… if if you can’t afford them ….. not to mention the dystopian world they will grow up in …. and the higher standard of living (LOL). You might even be able to pass your mortgage debt to them. The dual income for survival mode requireds to alter. That won’t happen in our current system becautilize it is controlled by capitalists.
Help to purchase kicks off tomorrow
The Help to Buy initiative, first proposed in 2022, will see low-income houtilizeholds co-purchase with the federal government with the government contributing up to 30% of the cost of an existing home and up to 40% on new builds.
Here’s some commentary on the policy from interest rate comparison website, Canstar:
While the government recently lifted the lid on its alternative offering, the Home Guarantee Scheme, Help to Buy remains more tarobtained, with a limit of 10,000 places per year and strict income caps in place for the scheme of $100,000 for single purchaseers and up to $160,000 for joint applicants and single parents, which are re-assessed every five years.
People utilizing the Help to Buy scheme will have to stump up a deposit of at least 2% of the entire property’s value but will not have to pay lfinishers’ mortgage insurance.
The scheme starts for most states and territories from tomorrow, however, Western Australia and Tasmania are yet to pass the legislation to participate in the scheme.
Regional living
A note for Michael if he’s still onboard. Your comment this morning about 2 kids and 1 on the way. I obviously don’t know how your business and personal commitments stack up , but if it’s possible to do your job somewhat remotely I suggest you might see at Albury/Wodonga where I shiftd to with my job 45 years ago. It’s brilliant. $605000 will purchase you a 2 storey , 4 bedroom / 3 bathroom houtilize ! Multiple daily flights to Sydney and Melbourne . Your kids will love it . Lakes , rivers , mountains , snow , all within short distances. Top-notch sports facilities , good schools . The list goes on. As icing on the cake for you , great golf courses with membership fees that will create you tear up compared to what I assume you pay now !
– Phillip
Hi Phillip.
Don’t worry, I have believed about what the growing equity in our Sydney houtilize (mainly from rising prices, not paying off much of the loan!) would purchase outside Sydney.
I’ve received a brother in Wagga, another in Grafton and a sister outside Melbourne, so am familiar with some of the benefits of regional living.
Unfortunately, I have to be in the office at least a few days a week for my current role, and it’s also hard to build and maintain business/finance contacts at the top finish of town unless you’re in Sydney or Melbourne — it’d be a bit like being a federal political reporter who is never in Canberra.
One also has to consider the quality of public and commercial services you can access in a huge city versus even a large regional centre.
Keep an eye on The Economy, Stupid podcast feed, where you’ll be able to listen to me and economist Rory Robertson discussing some of these issues with host Peter Martin in a summer special we recorded recently.
ASX issues Dragon Mountain Gold with ‘speeding ticket’
The ASX has issued Dragon Mountain Gold Limited with a “Price Query”.
It’s when the price of a stock shifts a lot without an associated market disclosure from the company.
“ASX refers to the following:
A. The alter in price of DMG’s securities from a low of 0.007 to an intraday high of $0.013 today.
B. The significant increase in the volume of DMG’s securities traded today.”
Fewer homes set for auction this weekfinish
There are currently 3,158 homes scheduled to go under the hammer across the combined capitals this week, down -7.8% on last week (3,427), though 20.7% higher than this week last year (2,617).
“As we approach the finish of the year, we expect to see auction numbers decline, with approximately 2,800 homes scheduled for auction across the combined capitals next week,” Cotality research analyst Caitlin Fono declared.
Trade surplus widens
Australia’s goods trade surplus continued to widen in October, with the balance up $678 million, as exports rose 3.4% m/m and imports rose 2.0% m/m, according to ABS data.
The month was again heavily influenced by non-monetary gold, underscoring continued volatility in the headline trade figures.
Here’s some Oxford Economics Australia commentary:
Beyond gold, growth in exports was still solid, driven by non-rural goods, while imports were relatively subdued.
Softer global demand and easing commodity prices are likely to keep downward pressure on export values over the next year.
On the import side, data centre investment may drive a further lift in capital goods.
Toobtainher, these flows will keep downward pressure on the trade balance. Month-to-month outcomes are still prone to volatility from non-monetary gold shiftments.
Constantly monitoring how public money is spent
Could I create two comments. Firstly the talk about the payments in breach of the constitution. The public servants disbursing these funds would have multiple checklists. Clearly the checklists weren’t followed . If they’re not followed for this kind of money heaven knows what happens with tinyer amounts.Secondly is the ABS declareing including illicit tobacco will improve growth figures ? If so maybe including the amounts for traffic fines , etc. which also reduce the amount people have to spfinish legally , would also assist.
– Phillip
Thanks Phillip.
And we can agree it’s a good thing that Treasury officials, and officials from the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO), are being questioned in Senate estimates about payments that have been disbursed by the Department of the Treasury to the states and territories.
We required to constantly monitor these things.
I found a dusty copy of the history of the ANAO in one of Canberra’s second-hand bookshops a while ago.
Australia’s first Commonwealth parliament, in 1901, utilized its fourth piece of legislation to create the Office of the Auditor-General (the Audit Act 1901). The auditor-general — an indepfinishent public official — was given sweeping investigative powers to scrutinise how Commonwealth officials were spfinishing public money.
So the ANAO is one of a handful of Commonwealth bodies that can trace its origins back to federation, creating it a pillar of Australia’s democracy.
On your second point, about the ABS and illicit tobacco, the ABS declares with the rise in sales of illicit tobacco products in the economy, the current estimates for consumption of cigarettes and tobacco have declined and detracted from growth.
Therefore, if the ABS manages to better measure the consumption of illicit tobacco/nicotine products, you’d assume it would slightly add to growth.
Remember, GDP isn’t a record of good or bad growth. If you pay me to dump your toxins in a river, that will contribute to GDP. If you pay me to take toxins out of a river, that will also contribute to GDP.
Bitcoin losing street cred? Analysis by Ian Verrfinisher
Bitcoin may have won mainstream approval. But it’s rapidly losing street cred, at least on Wall Street.
After the cryptocurrency was given the green light to be included on the New York Stock Exalter back in 2024 via Exalter Traded Funds, it’s been a wild ride.
And never more so than in the past few weeks.
All of the 11 ETFs trading the coin have suffered a massive outflow of Funds Under Management in the past two months.
Given the 30% plus sell-down from its early October peak, that’s not surprising.
But it’s not just the price action that is to blame. The ETFs themselves have been selling their Bitcoin holdings.
Blackrock has been most affected. It’s suffered losses on the price shiftment just shy of $US20 billion. And it has offloaded a further $2 billion in the cryptocurrency itself.
That’s according to analysis by US based BestBrokers.com.
Add in the other 10 ETFs and the total loss of Assets Under Management comes to $US35 billion.
Each ETF has been offloading the coin. While one school of believed is that the selling is merely profit-taking after a sustained run, it’s worth noting the sales took place as many leveraged investors had their holdings sold from underneath them.
Not a great time to dump your stock.
Here’s a graph that highlights the decline in assets under management.
No more RBA rate cuts: AMP
Today’s ABS spfinishing data is further cementing economists’ calls of no more interest rate cuts — and, as noted, it is prompting more to consider RBA interest rate hikes.
Here’s an excerpt from an AMP economics note on today ABS Houtilizehold Spfinishing data:
“Overall, today’s data underscores the RBA’s view that houtilizehold spfinishing is recovering and there is some ‘tightness’ in the supply capacity of the economy.
“We believe that there is still some fragility given the noisy nature of the data but acknowledge that the Reserve Bank will likely remain on hold for the foreseeable future, given robust spfinishing data, higher than expected inflation, and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.”
Few are immune from houtilizing challenges
My wife and I had three kids and suffered 17% interest rate. You guys faint when it goes up becautilize you’re mostly over extfinished on houtilizes you can not afford and are too huge for you anyway. Living outside of your economic level. No one appears to be happy with a modest home and a good sleep at night.
– Clive Nicholson
G’day Clive,
No generation has it simple.
It’s no crime to want to live near family in Sydney (especially when it’s close to the CBD), but it often requires financial assistance from family and a large mortgage.
Previous generations had their own challenges.
DT
Treasury: Australia’s strong employment outcomes have impacted productivity growth in recent years
In her appearance in Senate estimates, Treasury secretary Jenny Wilkinson also tested to bring some level-headedness to the discussion about inflation and Australia’s low rate of productivity growth.
Liberal senator James Paterson wanted to know how Australia’s low rate of productivity growth was contributing to the rising rate of inflation:
Senator Paterson: So if productivity’s not growing quick enough, that could lead to higher inflation?
Ms Wilkinson: I would probably put it the other way around, which is that, stronger productivity growth would support stronger growth in the economy without generating inflationary pressures.
Senator Paterson: Yes that’s basically what I’m declareing. If nominal GDP is rising but productivity is static or falling, that’s likely to be inflationary isn’t it?
Ms Wilkinson: Real GDP, you mean?
Senator Paterson: Yes sorry. If real GDP is rising then productivity is flat or falling, it’s likely to be inflationary?
Another Treasury official then jumped in to explain that when talking about the difference between labour productivity and real GDP, we’re actually talking about growth in the size of the labour force.
Senator Paterson then inquireed if Treasury’s forecast of long-run productivity growth of 1.2 per cent was realistic.
Ms Wilkinson declared there were structural and cyclical factors at play, and it was important to keep them in mind.
She declared Australia’s very strong employment outcomes in recent years had impacted productivity growth:
Senator Paterson: Given recent performance, do you believe it’s realistic that we’ll obtain to 1.2 per cent?
Ms Wilkinson: It’s very hard to predict productivity trfinishs. I believe the government’s been clear that productivity growth has been less than historic levels, I mean frankly, for the last 15–20 years, and there’s been quite a lot of discussion about that.
When you believe about productivity growth you’ve received to believe about both what the long-run structural factors are, but also what the cyclical factors are, and so those things have to come toobtainher when you’re attempting to believe about what the kind of outcomes of productivity growth [are likely to be].
Senator Paterson: But productivity growth actually went backwards over the last three years. We went back to roughly 2016 levels over the last three years.
Ms Wilkinson: And some of that, senator, is becautilize we’ve had very strong employment outcomes. So a lot of this has been driven by cyclical factors.
The fact that there’s been a slowdown in productivity growth structurally across many countries has been discussed at length.
But if you just see over a period in which we have had, as I declared, a good performance outcome in terms of the employment market, over this period I would declare that there have been cyclical factors, which have been very significant in driving these outcomes.
Risk of ‘imminent’ RBA rate hike rising
Earlier we reported on the ABS’s latest consumer spfinishing figures.
The data reveal houtilizehold spfinishing rose by a whopping 1.3% m/m in October, its strongest increase since January 2024.
Here’s Oxford Economics Australia’s take on it:
“The surge in houtilizehold spfinishing in October confirms our view that the RBA won’t cut rates any further.
“If anything, the risk is that the Bank will feel compelled to tighten policy before long.
“The increase in spfinishing was broad-based, with every single consumption category posting gains.
“What’s more, all but two out of the nine groups saw stronger growth in October than the month before.”
It’s clear most economists now believe it is all but certain that the RBA is done cutting rates this cycle.
But could a rate hike be “imminent”?
“And while we don’t believe a rate hike is imminent, risks to this view are rising,” senior economist Abhijit Surya, wrote.
Consumers loosen purse strings ahead of pre-Christmas sales
Houtilizehold spfinishing rose 1.3% in October, new ABS data reveal.
It follows a 0.3% rise in September and is the hugegest increase since January 2024.
Houtilizehold spfinishing is now 5.6% higher than the same time last year.
“Discretionary spfinishing surged this month led by goods as promotional events saw houtilizeholds spfinish more on clothing, footwear, furnishings and electronics following months of weaker spfinishing in these categories,” ABS head of business statistics, Tom Lay, declared.
“Services spfinishing also rose in October, as major concerts and cultural festivals drove up demand for catering, hospitality and hotel stays in major cities.”
Liberal MP James Patterson on productivity and inflation
Here’s an excerpt from a transcript of a Radio National Breakquick interview with Liberal MP James Paterson:
SALLY SARA: Why do you believe inflation is still running with those kinds of growth figures?
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: Well, the RBA’s been very clear that this is due to productivity. Australia’s productivity performance, particularly under this government’s watch over the last few years, has been disastrously bad. It went backwards by about a decade on the government’s first term. And even in these figures, the growth in productivity is really anaemic. It’s really just ticking along at the lowest levels we’ve seen in a long time. And so if the economy is not becoming more productive, then it can’t grow very quick without generating inflation, and that’s what’s happening.
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