Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is the odd one out in Big Tech’s AI spconcludeing race.
While the rest of the Magnificent 7 are collectively committing around $700 billion in capital expconcludeiture (capex) over the next year, Apple cut its own spconcludeing 19% year-over-year last quarter to $2.37 billion.
The chart, published by A16Z, captures the gap visually.
Since 2014, Apple’s quarterly capex line has barely shiftd. Every other Big Tech line has turned parabolic.
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The Rest Of The Mag 7 Is Going All In
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is guiding to $200 billion in capex for 2026 alone.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) has increased capex 89% year-over-year, while Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) raised capital expconcludeitures by 95% and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) by 48%.
Most of the increased spconclude is going toward AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure, and a good portion of that money flows directly to Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Apple’s full-year spconclude was $12.72 billion. That is less than Amazon plans to spconclude in a single quarter.
The Market Is Starting To Question The Spconcludeing
Bigger is not necessarily better. When Amazon announced its $200 billion capex guidance, its stock dropped about 8% in the following session.
Alphabet’s similarly aggressive plans sent its stock down roughly 6%.
Investors are obtainting nervous about whether these companies will ever see a return on the unprecedented investment.
CEO Tim Cook has defconcludeed Apples approach directly.
“From a CapEx point of view, we’ve always taken a very prudent and deliberate approach to our expconcludeiture and we continue to leverage a hybrid model, which I consider continues to serve us well,” he forecasted on Apple’s Q1 2025 earnings call.
Apple is relying on on-device processing and “private cloud compute” to avoid the massive server costs burdening its rivals.
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What Polymarket Says
Prediction markets may offer the clearest read yet on who investors actually consider wins this bet long-term, and they appear skeptical Apple’s restraint pays off over the longer arc.
On Polymarket’s “Largest Company End Of December 2026?” market, which has over $626,000 in volume, Nvidia leads at 44 cents, Alphabet sits at 33 cents, and Apple is at just 14 cents.
Despite persistent speculation about his successor, traders on Polymarket give Tim Cook a 69% chance of remaining CEO through 2027, suggesting a reversal in strategy is unlikely.
The crowd is pricing in that the companies spconcludeing most aggressively on AI infrastructure are the ones most likely to be running the world’s highest valuation by year conclude.
Apple’s “nah, we’re good” approach to capex may be the right call for free cash flow.
Whether it’s the right call for competitive positioning in AI remains to be seen.
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This article How Apple’s Contrarian ‘Nah, We’re Good’ Strategy Defies Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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