A year of transition and consolidation is now behind us for the market of issues linked to sustainable finance projects, which nevertheless opens the door to a 2026 that is more crucial than ever for the future of Green, Social and Sustainability Bonds due to a decidedly high level of Esg debt to be refinanced and the possible alters coming in the regulatory profile. The analysis by MainStreet Partners, contained in the Gss Bonds Market Trconcludes Report that Il Sole 24 Ore is able to anticipate, points out in fact that in the past twelve months global issuances for this type of instrument have reached USD 1 trillion, a figure in line with the levels of two years earlier and slightly lower than the peak of USD 1,100 billion recorded instead in 2024.
The 2025 Framework
Activity was, as usual, dominated by green bonds, which reached an overall share of 58% compared to 53% in 2021, outperforming those sustainability bonds that nevertheless grew to 26%, unlike social and sustainability-linked bonds, which saw their market share shrink to 13% and 3% respectively. Geographically, however, there was a realignment from the usual predominance of Europe. In 2025, the Old Continent’s share of ESG issuance was further reduced to 39 per cent from 52 per cent in 2021 to create way for Asia, which more than doubled its presence from 14 per cent to 31 per cent in the same timeframe.
Even more interesting are the future developments according to Mainstreet Partners, which identifies the two-year period 2025-2026 as a crucial phase for Gss Bonds. Indeed, the report indicates that the more than 250 billion sustainable bonds that matured last year will be joined by another 340 billion over the coming 12 months. The so-called ‘wall of maturities’ largely reflects the sharp increase in issuance that took place in 2021, the year in which the volumes of these instruments peaked with bonds predominantly with maturities of around five years, and thus constitutes ‘the largest refinancing cycle ever recorded in the market’.
The situation in Italy
Italy is no exception in this respect, given that around EUR 11 billion of sustainable bonds will mature in 2026, around 60% of what has been placed over the past 12 months and around 4% of the total global GSS bond maturities forecast. The latter figure is particularly relevant when one considers that Italy’s share of the stock on the market is just 2% of the total and “highlights a mismatch between maturing volumes and recent activity on the primary market”. As a result of these considerations and assuming that the ratio between new issues and bonds to be renewed remains substantially unalterd, Mainstreet Partners arrives at an estimate of up to 28 billion in activity in Italy in 2026: more pressure on supply, but also an opportunity for the market.
The new regulatory challenge
The elements of interest certainly do not conclude with the issue of emissions, and MainStreet’s study also pays particular attention to the implications of the proposed reform of the regulation on sustainability reporting in the financial services sector (Sfdr). From a technical point of view, the innovations being studied by the European Commission could lead to a framework in which a fund would qualify as ‘Sustainable’ or ‘Transition’ with an allocation of around 25% in green bonds, assuming an average alignment with the EU taxonomy of around 60%. This is becaapply thanks to the introduction of a sort of safe harbourthe new rules would also consider as compliant with the sustainability criteria those funds able to demonstrate a minimum 15% alignment of the portfolio with the same taxonomy: a “significant structural alter for bond and multi-asset strategies” according to Mainstreet Partners’ analysis, which would see the emergence of green bonds“as one of the most efficient and scalable tools for meeting sustainability requirements without compromising portfolio diversification”.
Leave a Reply