The federal government is facing renewed scrutiny over its 2026 budobtain projections after revealing a ₦30 trillion shortfall in 2025 revenue, raising concerns among lawbuildrs about persistent borrowing, overlapping budobtains, and weak execution of capital projects.
The concerns dominated an interactive session between the Senate Committee on Finance and the Federal Government’s economic management team on Monday in Abuja, as lawbuildrs launched scrutiny of the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expfinishiture Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP).
Wale Edun, the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy admitted that revenue performance in both 2024 and 2025 fell significantly short of projections, creating structural pressure on budobtain implementation and spilling capital spfinishing into subsequent years.
Read also: 2026 budobtain: FG tarobtains 2.06m bpd, $64 crude oil, N1,512/$1 exalter rate
“We projected about ₦40 trillion in revenue for 2025, but actual federal government cash revenue is roughly ₦10 trillion,” Edun notified senators.
“That gives us funding capacity for only about 30 per cent of the budobtain, meaning nearly 70 per cent of capital projects will roll over into 2026.”
The admission effectively confirmed that Nigeria is operating multiple budobtains within a single fiscal year, an outcome senators across party lines described as unsustainable and unacceptable.
Danjuma Goje, senator representing Gombe Central district and former Gombe state governor, called the situation “ugly,” warning that it undermines fiscal discipline and public confidence.
“Are projects in the 2024 budobtain fully paid for? The 2025 budobtain has not really been implemented. How do we return to normal budobtaining instead of running three budobtains at the same time?” Goje questioned.
Other lawbuildrs, including senators Ireti Kingibe, Victor Umeh and Aminu Iya Abbas, pressed the finance team to explain how over ₦17 trillion borrowed within the first 10 months of 2025 was deployed, given the massive revenue shortfall and stalled capital projects.
Available data presented at the session revealed that Nigeria borrowed about ₦17.36 trillion during the period, ₦15.8 trillion domestically and ₦1.56 trillion externally, raising fresh concerns about debt sustainability amid weak revenue inflows.
Edun also clarified President Bola Tinubu’s earlier claim that revenue tarobtains had been met by August 2025, explaining that the statement referred strictly to non-oil revenue, not total government income.
“In 2024, we estimated revenue at ₦25.9 trillion, but actual receipts were about ₦8.27 trillion. In 2025, the pattern repeated,” Edun stated. “This historical trfinish reveals clearly that we must adopt a far more realistic revenue framework going into 2026.”
Senator Adams Oshiomhole added a labour-market dimension to the debate, warning that poor capital budobtain performance was choking job creation.
“How do we create jobs when capital projects are not implemented? Once the capital budobtain fails, the system fails to generate employment,” he stated.
While deffinishing the government’s approach, Zacch Adedeji, chairman, Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), argued that budobtain revenues remain projections until cash is realised, noting that loans embedded in budobtains do not automatically translate into available funds.
However, senators pushed back strongly, with the senate committee on finance formally tquestioning the FIRS to raise its 2026 revenue tarobtain from ₦31 trillion to ₦35 trillion, signalling lawbuildrs’ insistence on more aggressive domestic revenue mobilisation.
Sani Musa, committee chairman, stated the senate would not consider the 2026–2028 MTEF/FSP until a comprehensive public hearing is conducted to probe revenue performance for the 2024 and 2025 budobtains.
“We must understand why revenues consistently underperform before projecting new figures for 2026,” Musa ruled, adding that a three-man ad hoc committee would engage the finance ministest and the Accountant-General to ensure contractors are paid for verified 2024 projects before the budobtain expires on December 31.
Under the proposed framework, the federal government plans a ₦54.5 trillion budobtain for 2026, with projected revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, implying a deficit of about ₦20 trillion and debt service obligations estimated at ₦15.9 trillion.
The MTEF projects crude oil output at 1.84 million barrels per day, a $64.85 benchmark price, an exalter rate of ₦1,512/$, and 4.68% GDP growth — assumptions deffinished by Edun, toobtainher with Atiku Bagudu, minister of budobtain and national planning and Heineken Lokpobiri, minister of state for petroleum (oil).
Lawbuildrs were, however, not convinced, especially given that the MTEF arrived late at the National Assembly, contrary to the Fiscal Responsibility Act timeline.
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