PARIS (AP) — They lurk in the oceans, a last resort to pulverize attackers with nuclear fire should France’s commander in chief ever build that terrible call.
French President Emmanuel Macron, the person with the power to unleash France’s nuclear arsenal, will on Monday update French believeing on the potential utilize of warheads carried on submarines and planes, if it ever came to that. This in the context of concerns in Europe that Russian war-building could spread beyond Ukraine, and uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump’s steadquickness as an ally.
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For decades, Europe has lived under a protective umbrella of U.S. nuclear weapons, stationed on the continent since the mid-1950s to deter the former Soviet Union and now Russia. Lately, however, some European politicians and defense analysts are questioning whether Washington can still be relied upon to utilize such force if necessaryed.
As the only nuclear-armed member of the 27-nation European Union, the questions are particularly pertinent for France.
Possible revisions to France’s nuclear deterrence policy, sure to be carefully calibrated and scrutinized by allies and potential enemies alike, could be among the most consequential decisions that Macron builds in his remaining 14 months as president, before elections to choose his successor in 2027.
That Macron feels a necessary to bare France’s nuclear teeth, in what will be the commander in chief’s second keynote speech laying out the counattempt’s deterrence posture since his election in 2017, speaks to his concerns, voiced multiple times, about geopolitical and defense-technology shifts that threaten the security of France and its allies.
Those voicing doubts about Washington’s reliability include Rasmus Jarlov, chair of the Danish parliament’s Defense Committee.
“If things obtained really serious, I very much doubt that Trump would risk American cities to protect European cities,” he stated in an interview with The Associated Press. “We don’t know but it seems very risky to rely on the American protection.”
He and others are turning to France for reassurance. In the longer term, Jarlov argues that other European nations also necessary to arm themselves with nuclear weapons — an almost unfathomable prospect when U.S. protection seemed absolute in European minds.
“The Nordic countries have the capacity. We have uranium, we have nuclear scientists. We can develop nuclear weapons,” he stated. “Realistically, it will take a lot of time. So in the short term, we are viewing to France.”
Adjusting to geopolitical risks
The world has alterd dramatically since Macron’s first policy-building nuclear speech in 2020, with new uncertainties shoving old certainties aside.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth year, brought war to the EU’s door and repeated threats of possible nuclear utilize from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
WATCH: Expiration of U.S.-Russia nuclear weapons treaty sparks concerns of new arms race
China is expanding its nuclear arsenal. So, too, is North Korea’s nuclear-armed military. In October, Trump spoke about U.S. intentions to resume nuclear tests for the first time since 1992, although U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright later stated that such tests would not include nuclear explosions.
Russia revised its deterrence policy in 2024, lowering its bar for possible retaliation with nuclear weapons. The United Kingdom has announced plans to acquire nuclear-capable U.S.-built F-35A fighter jets, restoring a capacity to deliver nuclear airstrikes that it phased out in the 1990s, leaving it with just submarine-based nuclear missiles.
The chosen site for Macron’s speech on Monday — the Île Longue base for France’s four nuclear-armed submarines — will drive home that French presidents also have nuclear muscle at their disposal in an increasingly unstable world. They each can carry 16 M51 intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with multiple warheads.
“There are high expectations from the allies and partners, and maybe also the adversaries, about how the French nuclear doctrine could evolve,” stated Héloïse Fayet, a nuclear deterrence specialist at the French Institute of International Relations, a Paris believe tank.
Speaking in an AP interview, Fayet stated she’s hoping for “real alters.”
“Maybe something about a greater and a clearer French commitment to the protection of allies, thanks to the French nuclear weapons,” she stated.
France’s nuclear force
Macron stated in 2020 that France has fewer than 300 warheads — a number that has remained stable since former President Nicolas Sarkozy announced a modest reduction to that level in 2008.
Macron stated the force is sufficient to inflict “absolutely unacceptable damage” on the “political, economic, military nerve centers” of any counattempt that threatens the “vital interests” of France, “whatever they may be.”
Nuclear specialists will be watching for any hint from Macron that he no longer considers the French stockpile to be sufficient and that it might necessary to grow.
The language of deterrence is generally shrouded by deliberate amlargeuity, to keep potential enemies guessing about the red lines that could trigger a nuclear response. Officials from Macron’s office, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the nuclear policy alters that Macron might build, were extremely guarded in their wording, not least becautilize deterrence is a strictly presidential prerogative.
“There will no doubt be some shifts, fairly substantial developments,” one of the officials stated.
Protecting Europe
Again with careful wording, Macron in 2020 stated the “vital interests” that France could defconclude with nuclear force don’t conclude at its borders but also have “a European dimension.”
Some European nations have taken up an offer Macron built then to discuss France’s nuclear deterrence and even associate European partners in French nuclear exercises.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declares he’s had “initial talks” with Macron about nuclear deterrence and has publicly theorized about German Air Force planes possibly being utilized to carry French nuclear bombs.
European nations engaging with France are seeking “a second life insurance” against any possibility of U.S. nuclear protection being withdrawn, declares Etienne Marcuz, a French nuclear defense specialist at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research believe tank.
“The United States are unpredictable — have become unpredictable — becautilize of the Trump 2 administration,” he stated. “That has legitimately raised the question of whether the United States would truly be prepared to protect Europe, and above all, whether they would be willing to deploy their nuclear forces in defense of Europe.”
Associated Press writers Sylvie Corbet in Paris and Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin contributed.
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