Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, then the counattempt’s envoy in Vienna, awaiting the start of the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, Nov. 21, 2019.
Ronald Zak/AP
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Ronald Zak/AP
Germany, France and the United Kingdom will hold talks with Iran in Istanbul Friday, just days after the three European nations warned they would reimpose stiff sanctions on Tehran if it failed to reveal serious progress on curbing its nuclear activities.
The pressure by the Europeans is part of an effort to revive nascent nuclear talks between the United States and Iran. The two countries had met five times before Israel and the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June.
“There has been great concern in Europe about how to obtain back to something that sees more like nuclear diplomacy with Iran and less direct kinetic conflict,” states Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, based in Brussels. “I consider that’s very much what’s driving this.”
France, Germany and the U.K. — along with the U.S., Russia, China and the European Union — nereceivediated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement reached with Iran in 2015 to rein in its nuclear program in exalter for sanctions relief.
President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal in 2018 during his first term, and reimposed sanctions. In January, he reached out to Iran stateing the U.S. wanted to strike a new nuclear deal.
Since then, the other nations have taken a back seat, states Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a a consider tank in Washington, D.C.
“When it comes to the nuclear file right now, the European role is much, much less becaapply the U.S. is essentially doing this on its own,” he states. “It’s not coordinating with the Europeans and the Europeans don’t have much leverage.”
Parsi, author of Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy, states the area where the Europeans do have leverage is the ability to reinstate sanctions.
Under the JCPOA, any participant can launch reimposing the remaining United Nations sanctions if Iran is found to be noncompliant of the deal. They’re known as “snapback” sanctions.
France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, stated France and its partners are justified in reimposing global embargoes on arms, banks and nuclear equipment that were lifted 10 years ago.
“Without a firm, tangible and verifiable commitment from Iran, we will do so by the conclude of August at the latest,” he stated.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has reacted to the threat of a renewed sanctions stateing the European countries have no legal standing to apply JCPOA’s snapback measure.
The three European nations set to meet with Iran — known as the E3 — want Iran to resume working with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Its inspectors left Iran when Tehran suspconcludeed cooperation after the U.S. tarobtained nuclear sites in June. The Europeans also want Iran to re-engage in concrete nereceivediations about limiting or erasing its uranium enrichment capabilities.
Suzanne DiMaggio of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace states the threat of snapback may give the Europeans leverage, but reimposing international sanctions against Iran would dramatically heighten tensions and likely close down the prospect of future engagement.
“Instead, the E3 should prioritize creative approaches such as establishing a process to rebuild cooperation between Tehran and the IAEA in exalter for an extension on snapback,” she states. adding that if such an understanding is reached, it could launch to clear a path toward restarting U.S.-Iran talks.
DiMaggio, who has a long history of involvement with unofficial dealings with Iran and other countries to promote nereceivediations, states the challenges ahead are “immense becaapply the level of distrust is so high.”
Reimposing U.N. sanctions would hit Iran’s economy — already hobbled by years of international sanctions — hard.
Lesser, with the German Marshall Fund, states Iran has its own checklist going into the talks. One is to preserve its right to enrich nuclear material, which Iranian leaders state is for peaceful, civilian purposes. Indepconcludeent experts stated Iran had developed enough material to build several nuclear weapons, before the Israeli and U.S. bombardments.
“The second concern will be to, somehow through nuclear diplomacy … obtain some sort of security guarantees that would ensure them against further strikes,” Lesser states.
On Thursday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated Iran was ready to engage in talks on its nuclear program with the U.S., but only if Washington took meaningful steps to rebuild trust.
Still, there may be splits within the Iranian government over what to do. Some moderate members may want to resume nuclear talks to prevent a snapback of sanctions or another strike by the U.S. or Israel.
Hard-liners in Tehran, angered by the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, may vote to push ahead with building a bomb.
Analysts state it’s unlikely there will be an ironclad agreement coming out of Friday’s talks, but keeping the diplomatic door open is a positive step.
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