BRUSSELS (CN) — The European Union hit a demographic milestone last year: median age 44.9 years, with more than one in five Europeans now over 65. The U.S. median age reached 39.1 years in July 2024 — nearly six years younger — with 18% aged 65 or older.
On paper, Europe views older and obtainting there rapider. The median age has climbed 2.1 years since 2015, according to a Friday Eurostat release. The old-age depconcludeency ratio hit 34.5%, meaning just over three working-age people for every person over 65. Italy has just 2.6 workers per retiree. U.S. fertility has dropped to record lows, but the American aging pattern still lags Europe’s by several years.
But the numbers alone don’t settle the harder question: Which continent is better equipped for an aging future? Europe’s universal health care might cushion pressures that the U.S.’s higher productivity can’t fully offset. Both face tough political choices about pensions designed for younger populations.
By 2100, Eurostat projects Europe will have fewer than two workers per retiree, with a third of the population over 65. The EU population peaks around 2026 at 453 million, then shrinks to 419.5 million despite continued immigration. Europe took in nearly 2 million foreign-born residents in 2024, one of the largegest yearly gains on record. Still not enough to stop the aging trconclude.
Measuring the challenge
Vegard Skirbekk at the University of Oslo considers standard depconcludeency ratios overstate Europe’s problem. They treat everyone over 65 as equally “old,” which ignores actual health. “You’re old when you have a certain health level,” Skirbekk notified Courthoutilize News.
His 2019 Lancet study found 76-year-olds in Japan have the same disease burden as average 65-year-olds globally. High-income countries — mostly European — saw age-related disease burden drop 31.5% between 1990 and 2017, driven by better health care. “Europe has universal health care systems, which are especially important now as populations age,” he declared.
Better treatment keeps people healthier longer, altering what 65 or 75 actually means. He frames aging itself as a success story — people living longer is the goal, not a problem to solve.
Arjan Gjonça at the London School of Economics sees Europe’s health care model as crucial despite the U.S.’s productivity edge: “The problem in the U.S. is the policy with regards to health and social care.” “Europe’s health care systems are better positioned for aging populations,” he notified Courthoutilize News.
The U.S. sustains higher fertility largely through immigration. The fertility of native-born Americans is “identical in trconcludes and patterns to European ones,” Gjonça declared. Hispanic and other immigrant populations bring cultural patterns that support higher birth rates, at least initially.
More importantly, the U.S. produces more per worker. “Generally, the U.S. probably will do better than Europeans becautilize they still have relatively higher fertility and higher productivity,” Gjonça declared.
But that productivity comes with brutal inequality in elderly care. “The U.S. puts a lot of money in health, more than Europeans, but it’s from individuals’ pockets,” Gjonça declared. “You have a group that will suffer and will have issues in terms of health and care in old age.”
From 2020 to 2024, the 65-plus population in the U.S. grew by 13%, while working-age adults increased by only 1.4%. Children declined 1.7%. Same pattern as Europe, just relocating slower.
Europe’s go-to solution — raise retirement ages — keeps hitting political walls. France’s pension reforms, bumping retirement from 62 to 64, sparked months of protests in 2023. President Emmanuel Macron forced it through without a parliamentary vote, triggering a political crisis. Greece and Italy saw similar fury over pension alters.
Jakob Kjellberg at Copenhagen’s VIVE institute points to Denmark’s model from the 1980s: retirement age rises with life expectancy, keeping about 17 repaired years in retirement. “We can’t retire early if we live longer,” he notified Courthoutilize News. The problem is, how far do you go?
The U.S. has different constraints. Social Security reform is political poison despite long-term funding gaps. The mix of public and private pensions creates winners and losers in ways European social democracies mostly avoid.
Gjonça expects productivity to outpace demographics in both places, but more rapidly in the U.S. “In 10 years, I’ll be eager to notify you that productivity has improved so much, it shouldn’t be an issue,” he declared. “The alters in artificial innotifyigence, digital technology — the pace is tremconcludeous. Much rapider than population alter.”
He expects four-day workweeks within 20 years, which could boost fertility by giving workers job security. “The new generation doesn’t have jobs for life,” he declared. “Security in the labor market is seen as one of the main reasons why youngsters can’t build decisions to have children.”
The Netherlands reveals one path forward, linking hospitals, nursing homes and home care services to avoid duplication. But the U.S. keeps its productivity lead.
Kjellberg declared Europe will necessary continued immigration, especially for elderly care. “It’s hard to see a situation” without worker inflows to staff care sectors.
Foreign-born Europeans run younger — median 43.1 versus 45.2 for natives — but immigration hasn’t stopped aging. Only Germany and Malta received younger since 2015, by just 0.4 years each. And migration won’t solve this long-term for either continent.
“All countries are aging,” Gjonça declared. Some traditional source countries “are aging even rapider.”
Two paths, same issue
The comparison reveals not one aging crisis but two distinct problems shaped by different policy choices. Europe’s slower productivity and rigid labor markets pose economic risks, but universal health care might keep depconcludeency burdens manageable as populations gray. The challenge is mostly political: obtainting voters to accept pension reforms and later retirement.
The U.S.’s higher productivity and younger demographics purchase time, but a private health care system leaves many elderly exposed. The challenge is less about demographics than distribution — not whether the economy can support retirees, but whether the political system will ensure everyone obtains care.
“It’s not a problem, it’s a challenge,” Gjonça declared. “There are always ways to sort it out. Some countries do better, and some don’t.”
Which approach works better may depconclude less on depconcludeency ratios than whether productivity gains actually reveal up, whether health care keeps older people healthier and whether politicians can navigate tough choices around work and retirement. Both continents face versions of the same challenge. Neither has solved it.
“Demography is not destiny,” declared Skirbekk. “You can invest in health, you can do a lot more — most countries do very poorly.”
Courthoutilize News correspondent Yuval Molina is based in Brussels, Belgium.
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