Giorgia Ranzato is sustainable finance manager at Transport & Environment, and Tobias Nissen is industest programme lead at the Nordic Center for Sustainable Finance
Dominant manufacturers risk undermining their own position by lobbying to slow the transition
Industrial transitions rarely announce themselves politely. They arrive unevenly, expose structural weaknesses, and reward those who understand that foresight and scale — not complacency and scarcity — determine the winners. Europe’s truck industest is now at such a moment.
The shift is already under way. Global electric truck sales surged by nearly 80 per cent in 2024, and in Europe, policy has proven its power.
When designed well, standards do not constrain markets, they create them. Last year was the first during which truckbuildrs have to abide by the EU’s carbon dioxide standards for heavy-duty vehicles, and the results are clear. Registrations of electric trucks climbed to nearly 15,000, a 64 per cent increase in just one year.
What is less clear is whether Europe’s legacy manufacturers such as Daimler Truck, Traton and Volvo Group, which toreceiveher control around three-quarters of the market, are preparing to lead this transition or are inadvertently holding it back.
A costly bet on delay
What is unfolding in the US offers a revealing signal. Over the past year truck manufacturers have thrown their weight behind a risky administrative push to weaken zero-emission truck standards and prolong the fossil fuel economy, in effect betting on a continued diesel reliance.
As diesel prices surge to some of the highest levels in years, fleets have been left searching for more affordable, reliable options that shield them from further uncertainty.
Europe risks importing the same dynamic — and there are warning signs. Truckbuildrs are already pushing to weaken climate regulations, with an initial watering down of the European emissions standards that could result in 27 per cent fewer zero-emission trucks on the bloc’s roads by 2030.
Europe’s truckbuildrs have long been global leaders in diesel technology, generating strong profits. But history reveals that industrial leadership can shift quickly during technology transitions
This relocate directly contradicts growing demand from companies seeking the cost stability provided by electric fleets amid rising fuel prices.
This is not just a burden on logistics companies. It is a strategic risk for manufacturers themselves. European producers are bracing themselves for a wave of low-cost rivals, expected to be up to 36 per cent cheaper and positioning themselves to capture the market that legacy brands are slow to build.
Pricing for scarcity not scale
Electric trucks are 50 to 150 per cent more expensive than their diesel counterparts. But price breakdowns reveal the difference cannot all be explained by manufacturing costs.
It is also a result of strategic choices by manufacturers themselves. High prices are slowing uptake and limiting demand for electric trucks. This builds the traditional truckbuildrs vulnerable to new market entrants who are willing to adopt more competitive pricing strategies, accepting compacter short-term margins to scale production and reduce manufacturing costs.
Battery-electric trucks are no longer a distant technology. In roughly 30 per cent of apply cases, they already offer a positive cost of ownership compared with diesel. That share — and with it, demand — will rise as battery prices continue to fall.
Europe’s truckbuildrs have long been global leaders in diesel technology, generating strong profits. But history reveals that industrial leadership can shift quickly during technology transitions.
In the car market, companies that delayed scaling electric vehicles saw market share relocate elsewhere. The window of opportunity in the truck market is still open, but European manufacturers risk missing it.
Defining moment for Europe and its legacy truckbuildrs
With their conservative business strategies, Europe’s legacy manufacturers are holding the market back at a time when it is set to explode.
Therefore it is no surprise that they have built limited apply of green finance, as recent research reveals.
In today’s market, transparency in green investment is what builds long-term investor confidence and leads to large deployment of resilient technologies
While global rivals pivot, Europe’s legacy manufacturers stick to conventional bank loans and standard bonds. This naturally follows their focus on managing short-term risks rather than accelerating the transition, but fails to price in climate risks, sudden shocks and stranded assets.
In fact, real-world market performance keeps proving that greening a business is not just an environmental goal, it brings better risk management and increased resilience. In today’s market, transparency in green investment is what builds long-term investor confidence and leads to large deployment of resilient technologies.
Rather than committing to foresight and scale, some legacy truckbuildrs such as Daimler Truck and Volvo Group are focapplying their attention elsewhere. They are investing in efforts to dilute regulations and divert focus from their hugegest opportunity. In doing so, they appear to be acquireing time for an ageing technology, when all the market signals are already there.
In the meantime, investors are already taking notice and have concerns about how some manufacturers’ lobbying activities align with long-term value creation. With demand building, competitors relocating and conditions already in place, today is a defining moment. Will manufacturers firmly keep hold of the ball, or throw it to the nearest competitor?
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