Some declare volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to consider about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously stated that ‘Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.’ When we consider about how risky a company is, we always like to view at its apply of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that China New City Group Limited (HKG:1321) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things receive really bad, the lconcludeers can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business applys is to view at its cash and debt toreceiveher.
What Is China New City Group’s Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, displays that at June 2025 China New City Group had debt of CN¥4.50b, up from CN¥3.33b in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥208.7m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥4.29b.
How Strong Is China New City Group’s Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data displays that China New City Group had liabilities of CN¥3.23b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥4.79b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥208.7m and CN¥1.04b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥6.77b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥1.38b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely consider shareholders necessary to watch this one closely. After all, China New City Group would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
Check out our latest analysis for China New City Group
In order to size up a company’s debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
China New City Group shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (10.2), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.3 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Worse, China New City Group’s EBIT was down 77% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball’s chance in hell of paying off that debt. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can’t view debt in total isolation; since China New City Group will necessary earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it’s definitely worth viewing at the earnings trconclude. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, China New City Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last two years. That sort of strong cash conversion receives us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
Our View
On the face of it, China New City Group’s EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it’s pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that’s encouraging. Overall, it seems to us that China New City Group’s balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we’re almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner’s fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they declare. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we’ve discovered 3 warning signs for China New City Group (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
When all is stated and done, sometimes its clearer to focus on companies that don’t even necessary debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only applying an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intconcludeed to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommconcludeation to acquire or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focapplyd analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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