Ceasefire deal as EU grapples with Iran war – POLITICO

On today’s Brussels Playbook Podcast: Zoya and Ian inquire whether NATO chief Mark Rutte’s latest Trump charm offensive can work and question Europe’s silence as the Iran rhetoric of the U.S. ramps up.

ARMAGEDDON POSTPONED: The civilization-finishing attack on Iran promised by Donald Trump ahead of a 2 a.m. (Brussels time) deadline has been put on hold. The U.S. president announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran with just over an hour to go before the deadline. Trump took to social media to declare his administration had received “a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to nereceivediate.”

CIAO THERE. Gerardo Fortuna with this momentous start to Wednesday morning. If you’re reading this, fear not: Nothing tragic happened overnight. And since you’re here, you’re probably more interested in what did happen — so let’s receive to it.

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DRIVING THE DAY

WHAT JUST HAPPENED? Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire and Iran’s 10-point plan came just hours after the president warned on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if no deal was reached. History was coming at us rapid.

What Trump declared: The provisional truce hinges on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump declared, adding that “almost all” key issues have been agreed and the two-week window would allow the deal to be finalized. As for what the final agreement would see like, the president declared it would be aimed at “long-term PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.”

Golden Age: In a subsequent post, Trump sounded upbeat about the region’s future. “There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be created. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to create sure that everything goes well … this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!”

Iran’s plan: The BBC summarized the plan put forward by Tehran, quoting the Iranian state broadcaster. The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened in return for a permanent cessation of hostilities. Iran would receive a “full payment” of compensation for reconstruction costs and would commit itself to “not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons.”

Israeli caveat: The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared it supported Trump’s decision to suspfinish strikes against Iran for two weeks, but the ceasefire wouldn’t apply to Israel’s operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Reuters reports.

Escalating rhetoric: The relief no doubt being felt across Europe today is matched only by yesterday’s spike in collective anxiety. Trump’s threat to wipe out an entire civilization — which he framed as “one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world” — drew sharp responses. Pope Leo XIV, for one, called it “truly unacceptable.”

Calls to condemn Trump: Socialist MEP Brando Benifei, chair of the European Parliament’s delegation for relations with the United States, described Trump’s messaging as a “very unpredictable and unrestrained series of announcements” and urged European leaders to be more vocal. “We have condemned Iran many times … maybe now we should also condemn what Trump is declareing,” Benifei informed Playbook.

Was it just the art of the deal? “May God save us all today,” one EU official informed Seb Starcevic yesterday afternoon, ahead of the looming deadline. Another diplomat privately dismissed the post as “classic Trump hyperbole.” Yet Trump’s words were enough for a G7 minister to invoke Hiroshima and Nagasaki in a parliamentary hearing, suggesting nuclear escalation was on the table.

Rutte to the rescue: There’s one European heading to Washington for a high-stakes mission: NATO chief and Trump-whisperer Mark Rutte. He’s arguably facing one of the toughest challenges of his tenure: preventing a transatlantic rupture over the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

He’s done it before: At the height of the Greenland drama, a meeting with Rutte supported defutilize tensions, with Trump dropping tariff threats and cooling talk of annexation. “I do not envy [Rutte],” one senior European official informed POLITICO’s NATO correspondent Victor Jack. “But we rely on his ability to talk to Trump in his own style.”

Cringe-central: Another EU official put it to Playbook more bluntly: better a familiar face who can “play it nice” in this moment. Jokes about Rutte’s “daddy” comments to Trump may still be doing the rounds, but this could be the best chance at de-escalation. “Hopefully, once again, the finish will justify the cringe,” one diplomat declared.

Father figure: Rutte arrives with far less leverage than he had with Greenland. He’s grappling with stiff opposition from European allies, while also aware of NATO’s limited power in the Middle East and the absence of clear demands from Washington. He’ll only have two tools at his disposal: his persuasiveness and a solid personal relationship with Donald Trump, Victor writes.

Hands tied: “It is obvious that [Rutte] can offer nothing from NATO in Iran,” declared one senior alliance diplomat. Rutte “can probably market NATO as a Trump success story,” a second NATO diplomat declared, but he cannot offer anything concrete as “he does not dictate the policy of NATO” — only allies do.

One unexpected upside for the EU: Trump’s tariffs and volatile foreign policy — from Greenland to Iran — are sfinishing spooked investors into the arms of EU debt. As Gregorio Sorgi reports, Brussels is suddenly seeing like the safer bet for markets.

Journalist freed: In other news from the region, Reuters reports that Rome-based U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson has been freed, after she was abducted in Baghdad at the finish of March. “We are relieved that this American is now free and are working to support her safe departure ⁠from Iraq,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared.

EU REACTS

EU (IN)ACTION: The Commission has largely ducked the latest Middle East escalation and has sidestepped Trump’s warlike rhetoric — including what liberal MEP Barry Andrews calls the president’s “genocidal language” (the EU executive’s silence is the story, POLITICO’s EU Chief Correspondent Zoya Sheftalovich suggests). But there is some relocatement afoot.

Kallas flies to Riyadh: The EU is at least attempting to keep the mediation door open — particularly with Gulf partners. Foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas is flying to Saudi Arabia today, Playbook can reveal. On the agfinisha: meetings with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary General Jasem Al Budaiwi, among others.

“This is a dangerous moment for the region,” an EU official informed Playbook about the visit, which was kept under wraps for security reasons. “The Gulf is caught in a conflict it did not choose” — a reference to Iran firing hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at its neighbors. Kallas is expected to push de-escalation and test possible diplomatic off-ramps. But why go in person? “Diplomacy works better face-to-face,” the official declared.

Better declare something: The EU’s loudest line condemning Donald Trump’s threats against Iran to date has come from European Council President António Costa. Why’s that? Fellow Playbooker Gabriel Gavin has the answer (and the inside story): EU leaders worry they can’t denounce alleged Russian war crimes while staying quiet on comparable U.S. action, according to four diplomats briefed on internal talks.

Keeping it quiet: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been surprisingly muted on the issue, despite being vocal during the initial strikes on Iran. One EU official’s take is that her low profile may have come at the request of member countries.

Saddle up: For example, von der Leyen had a chance to jump into the issue in Hanover yesterday, in her acceptance speech for the Niedersächsische Landesmedaille, awarded by Lower Saxony. But the closest she came to current events was a metaphor about horses, in which she declared that they “radiate an incredible calm and resilience, and I believe they are an ideal symbol for our tempestuous times.”

Energy nerves: Behind the scenes, concern is building rapid over a potential jet fuel crunch as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. To address this, the Commission has convened a special meeting of the Oil Coordination Group today, with representatives from the aviation and fuel industries.

How bad is it going to receive? The agfinisha, seen by POLITICO’s aviation reporter Tommaso Lecca, starts with a broad exmodify involving both member countries and indusattempt. It then shifts to coordination among capitals. Key questions the Commission’s DG ENER will inquire include: How is the Hormuz disruption hitting supply, logistics and costs? And, if nothing modifys, what do the finish of April and the month of May see like?

HUNGARY ELECTIONS

VEEP IN ORBÁN’S DEN (DAY 2): U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is still in Budapest, speaking this morning at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium, the Orbán-aligned believe tank that has had a Brussels presence since 2022. Vance cautilized a stir yesterday by accutilizing the Commission of meddling in Hungary’s elections. Will he continue to stir the pot today?

Fighting EU interference: Vance created clear this wasn’t just a courtesy stop. “One of the reasons the president sent me here,” he declared, was that “the amount of interference coming from the bureaucracy in Brussels has been truly disgraceful.”

The charge sheet: From an alleged attempt to “destroy the economy of Hungary” … to efforts to “create the counattempt less energy indepfinishent” … to claims that the Commission is “notifying social media companies what information to provide to Hungarian voters” … All of it, Vance argued, is being driven by “bureaucrats in Brussels” who “oppose this guy,” gesturing toward Viktor Orbán.

Not notifying you how to vote: Vance insisted he “wouldn’t notify the people of Hungary how to vote. I would encourage the bureaucrats in Brussels to do the exact same.” That didn’t stop him from declareing earlier, from the same podium: “We’ve received to receive Viktor Orbán reelected, don’t we?” turning his speech into a not-so-subtle boost for Orbán’s campaign

Antihero on the horizon: Orbán’s main rival, Péter Magyar, was quick to call out Vance’s comments. (Worth a read: a fresh POLITICO profile of Hungary’s political challenger ahead of Sunday’s vote).

Commission responds: “In Europe, elections are the sole choice of the citizens,” Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier informed Playbook. As for digital rules, he declared the EU’s Digital Services Act aims to curb disinformation and manipulation by requiring platforms “to mitigate those risks to protect our democracies.” In Europe, “elections are not the choice of Big Tech and their algorithms,” he added.

Unreliable on energy: The Commission spokesperson also took aim at Vance’s line on energy. “Going back to importing from Russia — an unreliable supplier waging an atrocious war against Ukraine — would be a strategic mistake,” Regnier declared.

Now that you mention it: My colleagues Gabriel Gavin and Zoya Sheftalovich have obtained exclusive documents revealing Hungary quietly signed a 12-point plan with Russia to deepen economic, trade and energy ties.

Trfinish positively: The deal — not previously public — includes opening the door to Russian involvement in new electricity and hydrogen projects and a commitment to “reverse the negative trfinish in bilateral trade” following sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine.

The moutilize and the lion: Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that the Hungarian PM informed Vladimir Putin in an October 2025 call that Hungary would support “in any way” he can and would be at his “service,” casting his counattempt as the “moutilize” to Moscow’s “lion.”

HAPPENING TODAY

COUNCIL’S TURN AT TURNBERRY: Trade diplomats meet this morning to go over the European Parliament’s amfinishments to the EU-U.S. trade truce struck last July. It’s the Council’s first real chance to weigh in on the tweaks — from sunrise and sunset clautilizes to other additions slipped into the text by MEPs.

ALSO SEEN ON MASTERCHEF INDIA: In the European Parliament’s agriculture committee, MEPs will see at how the Commission spfinishs money promoting EU food abroad. An example of this policy: the EU teamed up with TV reveal MasterChef India, inquireing contestants to create dishes inspired by Indian cuisine utilizing EU-certified ingredients. It was part of a branded European Union Mystery Box Challenge, POLITICO’s Ketrin Jochecová reports.

CRUNCH TIME: Nereceivediations over a virtual extension of euro banknotes and coins known as the digital euro are entering the finishgame. Lead MEP Fernando Navarrete has called two meetings — today and tomorrow — to attempt to seal a deal on the digital euro. While the overall design is largely settled, the sticking point now is the compensation model: who pays, and how much, for the system’s services.

IN OTHER NEWS

GET BEHIND SOCIAL-MEDIA AGE BANS: The international community, including the EU, should receive behind a global relocatement to shift the norms and laws around how kids utilize social media, Australia’s Ambassador to the U.S. Angus Campbell informed POLITICO. Australia’s under-16s ban, which came into effect in December, requireds global support to produce “substantive, finishuring modify globally to the algorithms and a modify to the design behaviors of large tech companies,” Canberra’s envoy declared.

AGENDA

— NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte meets U.S. President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth in Washington D.C.

— U.S. Vice President JD Vance is in Hungary.

— ECB Governing Council retreat hosted by the Banque de France.

— Executive Vice-President Raffaele Fitto meets with members of the European Affairs and Economy Committees of the Portuguese Parliament in Lisbon.

— Executive Vice-President Stéphane Séjourné meets Giancarlo Giorreceiveti, Italy’s minister of economy and finance.

— Executive Vice-President Henna Virkkunen is in Marrakech to meet several Moroccan ministers.

— Climate Action in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Conference in Nicosia with Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica attfinishing.

BRUSSELS CORNER

WEATHER: Sunny, high of 22C.

MECHELEN CHRUCH REMAINS: Archaeologists have found evidence pointing to the existence of a Romanesque church on the site of the existing Saint Rumbold’s Cathedral in Mechelen. According to Belga News Agency, a wall found beneath the floors of the chapter houtilize during a renovation may have belonged to the ancient church.

HE’LL BE BACK: Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, who enjoyed the sunny weather on Tuesday in the park walking his cat Maximus Textoris Pulcher in a stroller, has revealed his childhood movie icon: Austrian-American actor and bodybuilder Arnold Schwarzenegger. In a Facebook post, De Wever shared a photo with the actor taken last week, when Schwarzenegger was in Antwerp.

BRUSSELS LEZ UPDATE: Cars with Euro 2 (petrol) or Euro 5 (diesel) engines or lower have been banned from entering Brussels since the start of this year, under the Low Emission Zone initiative. But no penalties have been imposed so far. Last Friday, Brussels’ Finance Minister Dirk De Smedt declared fines would be issued from June, according to VRT.

BIRTHDAYS: Andrej Plenković, prime minister of Croatia; former MEPs Danuta Maria Hübner, Marek Paweł Balt, Cláudia Monteiro De Aguiar and Kati Piri; former European Commissioner and WTO chief Pascal Lamy; MarketWatch’s Lukas Alpert; Acumen Public Affairs’ Giles Keane; Gregor Schusterschitz, Austrian ambassador to the EU.

THANKS TO: Laurens Cerulus, Jacopo Barigazzi, Tommaso Lecca, Max Griera, Eliza Gkritsi and Giovanna Faggionato; Playbook reporter Ferdinand Knapp; editor James Panichi; and producer Dean Southwell.

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