A powerful Greenland blocking pattern that developed during the first week of January 2026 is creating a strong north–south jet stream configuration across the North Atlantic and Europe.
This pattern is steering Arctic air deep into Europe, initiating one of the coldest outbreaks of the season so far, according to an analysis by Marko Korosec from Severe Weather Europe (SWE).
At the mid-tropospheric level (850 hPa), both ECMWF and GFS analyses display extensive negative temperature anomalies exceeding −10°C (14°F) over Central Europe and the Balkans, and up to −15°C (5°F) below average across parts of Germany, Poland, and eastern France.
The core of the cold pool originates from northern Scandinavia and the Barents Sea, extfinishing southwestward under strong northeasterly flow.
Ensemble guidance from ECMWF indicates that below-normal temperatures will persist at least through January 15, with gradual moderation expected only in the western fringe of Europe.
GFS ensemble members support this scenario, displaying recurring Arctic air advection events driven by renewed ridge amplification over Greenland and a displaced polar vortex centered between Siberia and northern Canada.
Snowfall forecasts remain significant. ECMWF snow depth projections for January 6–10 display accumulations exceeding 40–60 cm (16–24 inches) in the northern Balkans and 20–30 cm (8–12 inches) across central Europe, including southern Germany, Austria, and the Czech Republic.
GFS suggests similar totals, with additional snow belts extfinishing into northern France and the Low Countries due to secondary cyclogenesis over the western Mediterranean.
Strong temperature gradients between Arctic and subtropical air masses are enhancing baroclinic development over the Mediterranean Basin.
Multiple low-pressure systems are forecast to track eastward across the Adriatic and Aegean Seas, producing locally heavy snow and high winds. Bora wind gusts along the Adriatic coast could exceed 120–150 km/h (75–93 mph), creating blizzard conditions and hazardous travel.
Observed impacts are already significant across parts of northern and western Europe. The United Kingdom Met Office has issued amber warnings for snow and ice across Scotland, where up to 30 cm (12 inches) of snow has accumulated and temperatures have fallen below −10°C (14°F) in the Highlands. Ireland remains under nationwide warnings for frost and snow, with overnight minima around −4°C (25°F) and widespread road disruptions.
Central and eastern Europe are expected to experience worsening conditions as the cold air mass deepens. Persistent subfreezing temperatures and multiple snow events are likely to maintain extensive snow cover across the continent, increasing energy demand and posing challenges for transport and infrastructure systems.
Meteorological centers are also monitoring the upper-atmospheric configuration for signs of further stratospheric warming.
The weakened polar vortex at 10 hPa altitude, observed since late December 2025, continues to favor cold air intrusions into mid-latitudes. If the weakening persists, the Arctic regime could extfinish into the second half of January, sustaining a prolonged period of sub-seasonal cold across Europe.
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