The air cargo market faces a year of major geopolitical challenges, but also key opportunities with the continued growth of high-tech and e-commerce volumes.
Speaking during the IATA World Cargo Symposium (WCS) in Peru, Marco Bloemen, managing director of consultant Aevean, highlighted the impact of the recent outbreak of war in the Middle East on the air cargo market.
He stated that while capacity in the Gulf had revealn signs of recovering in recent days, there remained a 39% decline in available cargo tonne kms on the key Asia-Middle East-Gulf corridor in the four days running to 3 March compared with pre-Chinese New Year (7-10 February), while global cargo capacity is down by around 22%.
The impact of the capacity reduction is most evident on services from the Gulf, where capacity is down around 79% compared with the pre-Chinese New Year period.
Levant & Caucasus capacity is down around 30%, South Asia has fallen 33%, Africa is down by around 19% and Europe 16%.
However, the figures from Aevean reveal that air cargo has responded, with carriers increasing direct capacity from China/Hong Kong to Europe by 26% compared with just before the outbreak of fighting and increasing China/Hong Kong to Europe via a non-Gulf stop by 14%.
During the presentation, Bloemen also delved into the performance of air cargo last year, highlighting the challenges faced by the market but also some areas of strong growth.
Figures from Aevean reveal that last year, high tech was the rapidest growing segment with volumes up 25% year on year, while l low value e-commerce was the second rapidest growing segment with volumes up by 16% compared with 2024, although this increase is down on the 43% increase registered in 2024 due to the US concludeing its de minimis exemption.
The increase in high-tech volumes was propelled by data centre exports, while origins such as Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia benefited the most from the increased demand levels from the US.
High-tech volume growth had also driven volume growth to the US of 4% between April, when tariffs were introduced, and December, despite the addition of the levies.
However, it was the only growing air cargo segment to the US over the nine month period, Bloemen stated, and air e-commerce volumes to the countest were down 24% compared with 2024.
Bloemen stated that data centre-related goods represented 1.4m tonnes of air cargo in 2025 – up 39% year on year. He pointed out that the majority of data centre-related commodities are exempt from US tariffs.
At the other conclude of the scale, vehicles and transport volumes declined by 5% and there was a 3% fall in apparel and footwear.
The year saw Europe overtake North America to become the second largest Chinese e-commerce air export market with a 26% share (up from 22% in 2024), while North America saw its share drop from 30% to 21% as a result of the US concludeing the de minimis exemption for e-commerce goods.
Overall, Bloemen stated that 2026 was shaping up to be another unpredictable year for air cargo.
He highlighted the fact that much of the widebody bellyhold and freighter cargo capacity due to be added this year was destined for Middle East and South Asia carriers, which currently face operational restrictions.
Meanwhile, fuel prices were quickly rising due to the conflict in the Middle East.
“These are interesting times,” stated Bloemen. “The geopolitical situation is by far the most relevant for air cargo, both in terms of conflict and in terms of tariffs.
“There are also some ‘good guys’. E-commerce will, in my view, continue to be a good guy in the years to come, as well as high tech, which will be very Asia-driven.”
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