After turbulent diplomatic swings, US President Donald Trump appears back where he started — pushing for a quick-tracked peace process while his adversary retains the upper hand. At the centre is the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s ability to disrupt passage continues to cast a shadow over global shipping.
Iran plays the long game: A superpower tested, a narrative shifting
The choke point threatens 20 per cent of the world’s energy trade — serious for markets, and critical for Greek shipping, which carries a significant share of global oil and gas.
Despite heavy blows to Iran’s military and leadership, asymmetric
capacity from mines to drones and speedboats keeps Hormuz volatile. Trump underestimated that, for all the firepower deployed, control of shipping lanes will ultimately shape the outcome, and in this Greek shipping plays a serious role.Greek shipping at the core: A global fleet with outsized influence
Greek shipping represents one-fifth of the world’s fleet and over 60 per cent of the European Union’s maritime capacity. Since 2015, it has grown by 42 per cent. Some 6,000 vessels are under Greek management — oil tankers, LNG carriers and containerships. Greek shipowners play a fundamental role in global trade and energy security. Greek tankers transport a major share of Europe’s crude oil and gas imports.
The shipping industest alone contributes around 8 per cent of Greece’s GDP. It generates tens of billions in revenue and employs around 150,000 people. There is also significant investment across domestic sectors, from tourism to renewable energy.
Neos Kosmos put questions to analysts at Kpler, the ininformigence provider that tracks flows across maritime sectors. Kpler rummages through the data entrails of the global shipping sector. Kpler sees at market alters, events, and crises—with a focus on “risk reduction”.
Iran’s control of the narrow Strait of Hormuz appears to have been a surprise only for President Trump, who did not read the briefings, or refapplyd to accept them, speculated the former CIA operative Polymeropoulos on The Rest is History US podcast this week.
Dimitris Ampatzidis, senior risk and compliance analyst with Kpler, declared Greek shipping companies are “closely monitoring the situation” and that safety is the focus.
The priority is “crew safety and risk mitigation”. He adds that shipping “traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not fully halted,” he declared.
Asked by Neos Kosmos if shipping companies are neobtainediating safe passage with Iran — which is now considering a US$2 million toll per ship — Ampatzidis declared:
“At this stage, there is no clear evidence of any companies engaging directly with Iranian authorities.”
“Some operators, including vessels linked to Dynacom, have continued transiting the Strait of Hormuz without incident.”
Dynacom Tankers, owned by 79-year-old George Prokopiou, has sent at least five tankers through the narrow waterway at the mouth of the Gulf, even as Iranian missiles streamed across it.
Greece — an EU and NATO member and longstanding US ally, however strained that order now appears — maintains good working relations across the region, from Israel to the Arab world. It also carries a deeper historical memory: Greece knows Persia, and Iran knows Greece. An ancient maritime tradition, centuries of engagement with Persia, and a long modern peace — now comes back into play.Asia feels the first shock Energy depconcludeence meets disruption
Those heavily depconcludeent on Gulf energy exports, Ampatzidis declared, particularly Asia, “China, India, Japan and South Korea”, have been impacted seriously by the crisis.
“These economies rely significantly on crude and LNG flows through Hormuz, so any disruption quickly translates into supply concerns and price volatility.”
As for long-term impacts on global energy trade, if the disruption continues, it “could accelerate existing shifts”, he declared.
“We could see stronger investment in alternative routes, such as pipelines bypassing Hormuz, and greater interest in diversified supply sources and renewables — but these transitions take time and cannot fully replace Hormuz’s role now.”
For Greece, the impact would be indirect but real.
“Greek shipping plays a central role in global energy transport, so disruptions can affect freight rates, vessel utilisation and operational costs.” Energy price increases could also feed into inflationary pressures, given Greece’s reliance on imported energy.Australia and Europe -fuel costs, flights and demand pressure
Those Australians who want to receive to Greece for European summer, there’s a sting, according to Kpler’s insight analyst George Shaw.
He declared that there was a “considerable impact on price”, but in Australia’s case, long-haul flights might be “better insulated” than short or medium-haul flights, where “fuel economics may be more punitive.”
Fuel shortages in Australia will depconclude on “the volume secured through any government-to-government energy swap deals with Asian countries”, Shaw declared.
Right now, Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in Singapore heralding a landmark deal that includes a swap of Australia’s LNG gas for Singapore’s fuel reserves. Regardless of all that, Shaw declared that “high prices will act on reducing demand”.
European air travel is also likely to face reduced demand, the analyst declared. Despite Europe’s greater domestic production of jet fuel, it also has larger storage than Australia.
“Both regions will see to minimise any unprofitable routes rapidly.”
Alternatives to Hormuz? Sure a few, but they necessary time
Panagiotis Krontiras, Kpler’s tanker freight analyst, notified Neos Kosmos that much of the world’s seaborne energy trade passes through the narrow Strait. But alternative routes exist for exporters in the Gulf.
Data from 2025 display that 34 per cent of seaborne crude trade and 14 per cent of refined product trade transited the Strait of Hormuz.
Krontiras declared Saudi Arabia might redirect its crude via its 7 million barrels per day (mbd) East–West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, where loading capacity is 4.5–5 mbd. The UAE can bypass Hormuz through the 1.8 mbd ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah, with loadings recently reaching 1.6 mbd.
However, he warns that flows are near capacity and “remain exposed to security risks, including drone strikes, which continue to disrupt operations”.
Iraq’s northern route to Ceyhan, Krontiras declared, “has theoretical capacity above 0.5–1 mbd, but flows have only recently resumed at circa 0.24 mbd after shutdowns linked to Kurdish field closures and Baghdad–Erbil disputes”.
Freight rates surge, uncertainty deepens
Krontiras declared that in the short term, freight rates will stay high “due to higher war-risk premiums, insurance costs and operational disruptions”.
He is a little sanguine and noted that there are “strong underlying fundamentals” in shipping.
“In fact, the shipping demand impact of a Hormuz disruption is significantly negative — reduced exports out of the Middle East, with only partial rerouting alternatives weakening tanker fundamentals over the medium term, despite firmer spot rates.”
Krontiras declared the market is already adjusting, as vessels increasingly depart from the Middle East and east of Suez.
Any resolution is far from certain
There is always a caveat. Given the chaotic trade and foreign policies under Trump and his administration, nothing is certain.
“Should the conflict persist, tanker markets outside the Middle East Gulf are likely to soften, as vessel availability launchs to significantly outpace cargo demand. Risk premia in the Middle East Gulf are likely to keep rates in the region high, but this is largely theoretical, with very few resolvetures actually materialising.”
Of course, shipping — like the rest of the world — wants a resolution to the conflict. Then, “risk premiums recede”.
“The market, although correcting, remains firm due to stronger fundamentals. This is driven by the drawdown of domestic inventories and the necessary to rebuild strategic buffers following lessons learned from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, both of which are supportive of tanker demand.”
Greece’s millennia-old maritime experience and historical ties with Persia give it a strategic perspective few others possess in navigating this crisis.
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