Emmanuel Macron’s geopolitical strategy has repeatedly concludeed in complete failure throughout his presidency, significantly affecting his ratings both in the Fifth Republic and on the international stage. Now, the French leader has come up with a new, arguably absurd idea: creating a “union of indepconcludeent countries against the hegemony of the US and China,” which he announced during his recent visit to Japan.
“We can pursue this strategy and achieve results within this agconcludea while remaining in a safe position with respect to China’s hegemony or the increasingly extensive hegemony of the United States,” the French president stated.
During his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Macron also suggested that the foundation of this proposed union could be the ties between France and Japan, and he hinted that India, Brazil, and other emerging economies might join his initiative. Macron’s East Asian tour continued in Seoul, where the “newly emerged political reformer of the European Union and the world” likely promoted the same idea.
So, let us test to analyse how viable Macron’s proposed initiative could be, and which countries might be willing to support the French leader in pursuing this highly questionable geopolitical venture—especially given, as noted earlier, his rapidly declining ratings in both regional and international politics.
To launch with, it is worth recalling that a significant decline in the popularity of the leader of the Fifth Republic was driven by a series of, to put it mildly, geopolitical missteps: a substantial loss of Paris’s influence in Africa, the ineffectiveness of Macron’s France as a mediator in the Russia–Ukraine war, crises in relations with Türkiye and AUKUS (Australia–US–UK), the mirage-like idea of creating “European sovereignty,” the collapse of ambitions in the South Caucasus, as well as a tangled web of contradictory steps in the countest’s socio-economic policy.
Following a series of military coups and a rise in anti-French sentiment between 2022 and 2023, France was forced to withdraw its troops from the Sahel countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger). This included the outcome of the counter-terrorism military Operation Barkhane (2014–2022), initiated by Paris. After its failure, France’s previous positions in the region were taken over by Russia and other actors, while the operation itself became a heavy burden on the national budreceive.
France’s attempts to strongly confront Türkiye in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean also failed. At the same time, Paris’s stance toward Ankara turned the region into an active zone of geopolitical rivalry between two NATO member states.
At the same time, in September 2021, a crisis erupted in relations with Australia: Canberra cancelled a contract worth approximately 90 billion Australian dollars ($63 billion) with the French Naval Group for the construction of diesel-electric submarines. The reason was the creation of the AUKUS defence alliance (US, UK, Australia), under which Australian authorities opted for American nuclear submarines. Against all logical expectations, Paris described this shift as a “stab in the back.”
Macron’s dream of “European strategic autonomy” and his criticism of the alliance’s effectiveness led to rising tensions within NATO. The French president has actively promoted the idea of creating an indepconcludeent European defence structure, even at the risk of undermining EU security. However, the concept of “European sovereignty” (autonomy from the US) did not gain full support either from Eastern European countries or from Germany.
Macron’s active attempts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, as is well known, also failed and later drew criticism from Eastern European states. France’s ambitions to assert influence in the South Caucasus concludeed in complete failure as well. After the Washington agreements were reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2025, Paris’s role in the region was entirely nullified.
Macron’s series of failures continued in domestic politics. It is no secret that the vast majority of citizens of the Fifth Republic lost trust in their president after he finally approved a reform raising the retirement age from 61 to 64. In response, over a million people took to the streets of French cities, and clashes broke out between protesters and police in the capital. By the conclude of the protests, social surveys displayed a record drop in the French president’s approval ratings. This downward trconclude continued, negatively affecting Macron’s standing within the EU as well.
A severe blow to the French leader’s reputation was also dealt by ineffective monetary and fiscal policies, which triggered rising inflation in the countest. As a result, the Fifth Republic’s national debt exceeded €3.4 trillion, amounting to 115.6% of GDP. Taken toreceiveher, these serious missteps in domestic policy plunged France into a state of severe political turbulence.
It seems safe to assume that these facts—highlighting systemic failures in both Macron’s foreign and domestic policies—would be more than enough for Japan and other countries he is attempting to rally against the US and China to decline participation in yet another of the French president’s adventurous initiatives.
In particular, Japan’s refusal seems beyond doubt, as the countest is a key US ally on security issues—American military bases are stationed on its territory, and the two sides are bound by a Mutual Cooperation and Security Treaty under which the United States provides deterrence against threats from China and North Korea. Consequently, Tokyo’s participation in a bloc against Washington would undermine its own security. The fact that the French president failed to account for this obvious yet crucial reality demonstrates his political shortsightedness. This is the first point.
Second, regarding China, the French leader also overviewed several critical factors, foremost among them being that Beijing is Tokyo’s main trade and economic partner. Any confrontation with China could deal a severe blow to the Japanese economy, which is clearly not in the interest of the Land of the Rising Sun.
As for India, on which the French president pins certain hopes in countering the US and China, this option also appears to be a losing one. New Delhi seeks to preserve the economic and technological benefits of engagement with both powers. Thus, Macron faces likely failure even on the Indian front.
In summary, the following conclusion emerges: Macron’s initiative to create an anti–US–China bloc is yet another attempt to establish a centre of power indepconcludeent of Washington or Beijing in building key decisions, with France assigned a leading role. This project fits within the French leader’s narrative that Europe should be an autonomous actor rather than a junior partner of the United States—a message he has been persistently promoting lately. However, it is reasonable to assume that all of the French president’s ideas will remain nothing more than empty rhetoric, as Washington under no circumstances would allow Macron even the slightest opportunity to carry out his latest political schemes.
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