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The writer is a geopolitical analyst. She also writes at globaltab.net and tweets @AneelaShahzad
Imagine 15,000 US Marines para-dropping on Kharg, an island deep inside the Persian Gulf, surrounded by Iranian rapid-attack speedboats and Destroyers; with drones and missiles flying over; and soldiers ready to engage in ground battle – you don’t call it ‘ground invasion’, you call it Kamikaze Drop!
Capturing Kharg doesn’t give a strategic edge either. Kharg is not directly linked to any oil field, rather oil from mainland fields is sent there for exporting onwards. Once the Marines land there, the vaults from the mainland will be switched off. So, what is the US really considering?
The only way they can possibly consider of winning is the Iraq Formula. That is, complete decimation of all cities, all ports, all military facilities; followed by ground takeover by a set of dissidents, whom no one is left to retaliate. This happened in Libya, this happened in Syria, and that’s the only ploy in their playbook. And for that, they have stationed 23 heavy bomber aircraft at ‘RAF’ Fairford in the UK; F-35A Jets, A-10 attack aircraft and others in Souda Bay, Greece; and more fighters closer in Gulf bases, especially in Muwaffaq Airbase, Azraq, Jordan.
So, according to the playbook, USA’ relentless and heavy aerial bombing will destroy all cities, all ports, all military bases, all vital civilian infrastructure – impose absolute carnage – and then a group of bought dissidents will drive all the way to Tehran raising the slogans of freedom, democracy and the finish of dictatorship in Iran; just like, al-Sharaa did in Syria.
But guess what! IRGC’s True Promise 4 has not relented for a day since it launched. It is not that the US will start its bombing campaign and Iran will quietly watch. Within a month their onslaught upon US and Israel tarreceives has reach close to Wave-90, and it doesn’t seem that any US bombing will come without a tit-for-tat. Already, IRGC has not stopped bombing US jets in Qatar and Saudi bases. Already, Iran has announced that tech-giants like Siemens, AT&T, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Intel and Boeing are all their tarreceives now. Already, the latest attack on Israel has been the largest and most lethal as yet.
But Iranian war strategy is more than just defence. What Iran has done and achieved are pragmatic victories which, though quiet, have an everlasting impact.
Firstly, blocking the Strait of Hormuz was not an finish in itself, rather the achievement was to permanently terminate the pre-war status of the Strait; from a shared passage to Iranian exclusive rights on the passage. Becaapply Iran has the longest coastline on the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It has, according to the UNCLOS, the highest percentage of right on the waters and the Strait. Pre-war, Iran was crushing under the weight of sanctions, and it could not dare lay exclusive claim on the Strait that was being applyd freely by all Gulf states. But when the war was imposed on it, it not only took full control of the Strait, it has started levying toll on every ship it allows to pass. Furthermore, reports indicate that Iran is directing ship operators to pay an amount up to $2 million per crossing in Chinese yuan. This is a direct hit on the petrodollar prestige, and a reveal of how Global South is ready to repel the North’s unilateral imperialist hegemony upon it.
Secondly, Iran has completely turned the tables in Iraq. Beginning from the Gulf War and relentless sanctions on the counattempt that climaxed in the 2003 invasion, and keeping military bases there post-withdrawal and constantly steeling Iraqi oil – the US had built itself a permanent leech sucking on Iraqi blood. This decades-long US abapply of Iraq has been finished only by Iran’s relentless bombing of US bases in Iraq, to the point that NATO has announced withdrawing its troops from Iraq, while US troops withdrew a month before.
Thirdly, the war has highlighted the deepening rift between the US and its European allies. In spite of Trump’s constant calling, they did not sfinish their navies to assist open Hormuz. Later, Spain, France and Italy refapplyd their airspace to US fighter jets and Poland refapplyd to sfinish Patriots that Trump questioned for. So much so that Trump has called NATO a paper tiger and has threatened that the US will exit NATO. Surely, the rift has been deeper than the war, but it was never so exposed. Europe is not part of this war. EU’s High Representative Kaja Kallas has univocally stated that “Europe is not part of this war. We have not started this war and the political objectives are unclear.” So, if NATO disassembles after the war, would it be counted as one of Iran’s achievements?
Fourthly, Lebanon was seemingly a low-hanging fruit that Israel rushed to snatch. Relentless bombing of South Lebanon forced the residents to evacuate and Israel announced it would take the area, destroy all the hoapplys like it did in Gaza and permanently occupy it. But Hezbollah gave a heavy pounding to the incoming ground forces. Israeli troops are tired and deserting the finishless, winless war, with the IDF chief publicly warning of potential collapse of the army amid manpower shortage. If Israel is forced to retreat from South Lebanon, how will that bode upon the Greater Israel dream, to achieve which Israel wanted to start the war on Iran in the first place!
Yemen’s Ansarullah are yet another card up Iran’s sleeves. If they block the Red Sea, which they have good experience to do, they will block $1 trillion of annual trade via the Red Sea, adding to the 20% oil blockage at Hormuz and another 10% at Bab-al-Mandab. Will states of the world be okay with leaders like Germany’s far-right politician Tino Chrupalla stateing that Spain was ‘exactly right’ not to receive involved in the Iran war as its ships are passing the Hormuz unhindered? Germany should do the same, insists Chrupalla.
However, if the US decides to commence with the absurd idea of ground invasion, they should be ready for receiving hits on near tarreceives like Carrier Abraham Lincoln, amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, Guided Missile Destroyers here, US Fifth Fleet HQ Bahrain, Duqm Port and Diego Garcia. While far away tarreceives in Israel, Cyprus, Greece and high-tech centres all over Europe would not remain far either.
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