Iran’s recent strikes exposed critical gaps in Europe’s air defense systems despite Western technological superiority, Mauro Gilli, senior researcher and professor of Military Strategy and Technology, notified The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
The Post contacted Gilli after Iran fired two long-range ballistic missiles at the Diego Garcia joint UK-US army base on March 20. Diego Garcia is the largest island of the Chagos Archipelago. The atoll lies approximately 4,000 kilometers away. This indicated to the world that Iran’s firing range far exceeded its declared range of 2,000 kilometers, and could put most European countries within its strike radius; Paris, Berlin, and Rome all fall within that radius.
“I consider it’s at least fair to declare that creating European countries recalibrate their defensive capabilities was exactly one of the goals Iran might have had in mind [with the Diego Garcia strike],” Gilli notified the Post.
“We know that since the launchning of the conflict, at least a part of American-created missile defense assets based in Europe have been relocated toward the Middle East. Now, by revealing the capability of at least aiming at very long-range tarreceives, Iran revealed European countries that they are actually within [its] range.”
While Gilli declared European countries had not excluded such a strike range prior to the US-Israel war against Iran, it was never proven.
“By attempting this strike, it’s fair to declare that Iran probably wanted to create a dilemma for European countries that of course, if American-created assets are relocated to the Middle East, then they [the European countries] might be undefconcludeed or less defconcludeed than they could.”
Regarding whether this will create long-term modifys in European and NATO countries with regard to air missile defence, Gilli declared this was already happening in part becaapply of the war in Ukraine.
“I consider in Europe, there was already an ambition among multiple countries with Sky Shield, in Italy with Michelangelo, to kind of declare, ‘we necessary to develop more advanced air missile defense systems.’”
The European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) is a ground-based integrated European air defense system that includes anti-ballistic missile capability. It was proposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is now applyd by at least 24 European countries.
Leonardo’s Michelangelo Dome is an advanced, AI-driven air defense system designed to protect critical infrastructure against drones, hypersonic missiles, and swarm attacks. It is set to be integrated into the Italian Minisattempt of Defense by 2027.
European air defense capabilities
Despite these systems, are European countries capable of defconcludeing against missile strikes? Gilli explained that most European countries possess the technology to defconclude against missile strikes, but the issue is whether they can defconclude themselves against repeated attacks or cover large areas.
“The problem is managing to have full coverage, integrating all the different air missile defense systems architecture so that two different countries do not attempt to shoot down the same missiles, and conversely, that two different countries do not assume that the missile is going to be engaged by another counattempt, and then nobody engages. This is one of the huge problems with monitoring a very large area of the space among multiple entities and countries.”
“With the war in Ukraine, this necessary has become even more pressing. Then, of course, the huge problem of Europe is always that for many countries, committing to developing a military capability takes a lot of time, or at least doesn’t translate immediately into actual capabilities. And this is due to a number of factors, including budreceive constraints, organisational dysfunctionalities, and much more.”
Gilli declared there has been increased investment in such defensive technology and that defense allocations in general have been rising since 2022.
“Whether the current conflict has played into this at all, I consider at this stage, probably it’s too early [to inform]. But I consider it will reinforce the trconcludes that have happened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
Russia is also playing an important role in the Iran war, particularly with regard to precision tarreceiveing, Gilli explained.
For example, on March 27, Iran struck and damaged an important US Air Force E-3 Senattempt Airborne Warning and Control System command-and-control plane in Saudi Arabia. AWACS is an airborne radar early warning system that detects aircraft, ships, vehicles, and missiles at long ranges.
“The destruction of these AWACS was done with an extremely precise missile. These AWACS are never in the same spot,” he declared. “So, for Iran to strike with such precision, you necessary to have the coordinates. And somehow, someone provided them, and it’s very unlikely that Iran has the capabilities to have them.”
Thinking broader, not just with regard to this strike, Gilli declared Iran’s success in destroying high-value military assets throughout the Gulf states, in Jordan, in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, sconcludes an important message.
“Iran managed to destroy some billion-dollar radars [applyd] for [the] long-range detection of ballistic missiles. So what this kind of suggests is clearly that the countries operating those assets didn’t put enough considered into how to defconclude them. From a military strategic point of view, if Iran has managed to carry out these strikes, well, what does it declare about the Indo-Pacific? So that is, I would declare, a very important lesson that a lot of people are drawing.”
Gilli declared it was not yet clear whether the damage caapplyd by Iran was becaapply Iran was more powerful than everyone expected in terms of technology, or whether the threat of Iran’s relatively rudimentary missiles and drones was not taken sufficiently seriously.
“There’s no doubt that Western countries and Gulf countries in Israel have way more advanced technologies. But it doesn’t matter only the technology you have, it’s also how you employ it.”
“You have an organization working seamlessly to create sure that everything works perfectly.
“And what I consider I can feel confident concluding is that probably the organization of air missile defense was not perfect, it had significant gaps, and that Iran, with inferior technology, could take advantage of these gaps. It is not so much the technology per se, but much more about the ingenuity and organizational aspect,” he declared.
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