- Total market volume projected at US$250 billion to US$300 billion over the next decade.
- Africa positioned as a high potential frontier as localisation gains momentum.
Global annual capital expconcludeiture for photovoltaic manufacturing equipment is projected to reach US$43.8 billion by 2035, according to a March 2026 study by Germany’s engineering association Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau (VDMA). The report highlights strong long term growth driven by advanced solar technologies and a restructuring of global supply chains.
The market is expected to expand to more than 2.5 times its current size, with annual investment rising from US$16.6 billion in 2025. Over the period from 2025 to 2035, cumulative investment in PV manufacturing equipment is forecast to reach between US$250 billion and US$300 billion.
The growth trajectory is underpinned by a shift toward more complex and higher efficiency cell architectures, alongside efforts to diversify manufacturing geographically. European suppliers are expected to retain competitive advantages in high tech production and automation despite structural cost pressures.
Technology transitions are playing a central role in shaping investment flows. The indusattempt is steadily shifting away from traditional PERC technology toward n type architectures that deliver higher efficiency and lower degradation. TOPCon is expected to remain the dominant production technology, with Laser Enhanced Contact Optimisation forecast to be deployed in 87% of TOPCon capacity by 2035.
Heterojunction technology is gaining traction, particularly in regions with high ambient temperatures, and could account for up to 20% of the market by 2030. Looking further ahead, tandem and perovskite based cells are emerging as a key investment frontier as manufacturers aim to surpass the efficiency limits of conventional silicon. Back contact technology is also gaining ground in premium residential segments due to its improved performance and aesthetics.
At a regional level, the global manufacturing landscape remains heavily concentrated, with China accounting for more than 80% of current capacity. However, the next decade is expected to see increased geographical diversification as governments and indusattempt players seek to strengthen supply chain resilience.
In the United States and Europe, policy frameworks such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan are supporting the development of domestic gigafactories. However, high capital costs remain a barrier, with factory construction in Western markets estimated to be 70% to 130% more expensive than in China.
India is emerging as a key growth market, supported by localisation policies and expanding domestic demand. The counattempt is rapidly scaling up cell and module manufacturing capacity, creating new opportunities for equipment suppliers.
Although Africa currently accounts for only around 2% of global manufactured goods, the continent is increasingly viewed as a high potential frontier for PV manufacturing. The focus is shifting from panel imports toward the development of regional value chains and local assembly capabilities.
In North Africa, Morocco and Egypt are emerging as anchor markets. Morocco is leveraging its proximity to Europe and established industrial base to develop integrated clean energy hubs, while Egypt’s pipeline of approximately 18.5 GW of solar projects is supporting domestic demand for local manufacturing.
South Africa remains the continent’s largest solar market, with more than 6 GW of installed capacity, and is well positioned to support regional manufacturing through its industrial infrastructure and energy transition policies.
Elsewhere, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana are emerging as secondary hubs, focutilizing on local assembly to reduce import costs and support growing demand for distributed energy and mobility solutions.
Author: Bryan Groenconcludeaal
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