Gas influence on the electricity price
The influence of fossil power generators on the power price is estimated by the share of hours in a specified period when power prices are equal to or exceed the average cost of generating electricity with fossil gas. The methodology aligns with ACER market monitoring report 2025.
The cost of producing electricity applying fossil gas is represented by the Short Run Marginal Costs (SRMC) of gas power generation. This cost is the sum of fuel costs, carbon costs and variable operating and maintenance costs, assuming a gas power plant efficiency rate of 50%. For more detailed information, refer to Ember’s European electricity prices and costs tool.
Increase in EU fossil import costs in the first days of conflicts
Daily average import quantities of coal, oil and gas are calculated applying the latest EU import data from Eurostat for Q1-3 2025.
The increase in EU fossil import costs in the first days of conflicts (1-10 March) is the difference between:
a) Daily average of imported quantities multiplied by prices as observed in the first ten days of conflict (1-10 March) for corresponding fossil commodity, and;
b) Daily average imported quantities multiplied by prices as observed across the week before the conflict escalated (February 2026).
Fossil commodity prices sourced from Montel.
- The oil price is the settlement price for Brent crude, May 2026 contract.
- The gas price is the day ahead settlement prices for gas delivered at TTF, the benchmark price reference for fossil gas traded in the EU.
- The hard coal price is calculated applying the front month settlement price for API 2 Rotterdam coal. The API 2 Rotterdam coal price is the benchmark price reference for hard coal imported into Europe.
Estimated contribution of EU-ETS costs to houtilizehold electricity bills
The share of the energy component in average EU houtilizehold electricity bills (52%) is taken from VaasaETT’s March update of the houtilizehold energy price index, reporting February prices (Houtilizehold Energy Price Index by e-Control, MEKH and VaasaETT, ©2025 VaasaETT).
The maximum contribution of 10% from the ETS to houtilizehold electricity bills is based on the assumption that of this 52%, the ETS contributes 20% in the highest possible case where the energy component is entirely determined by the cost of gas-fired power.
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