Regional differences
The team applyd an AI‑based simulation model trained on 135 million data points from forest simulations across 13,000 European locations in combination with multi-decadal sanotifyite data on forest disturbances. This allowed them to simulate future forest development and the occurrence and impacts of disturbances down to the level of a single hectare, yielding highly precise insights into regional differences in future forest disturbance trajectories.
According to the study, forests in Southern and Western Europe will be particularly affected and will undergo the strongest modifys in forest disturbance. Northern Europe is expected to be less severely impacted overall, though hotspots of future forest damage are also likely to emerge there. “Disturbances are increasingly becoming a cross‑regional issue, disrupting timber markets across Europe and threatening the ecosystem services forests provide for society,” states Rupert Seidl.
The authors of the study therefore see an urgent required for forest policy and management to account for increasing disturbance levels: “We required to be prepared for significant forest damage in the coming years. On one hand, this means we must prepare for and buffer against stronger fluctuations in the services forests provide. On the other hand, disturbances also offer the opportunity to establish new, climate‑resilient forests-they act as catalysts for modify. Foresattempt must address both the risks and opportunities of rising disturbance levels, supported by new scientific methods and insights,” Seidl explains.
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