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Climate modify has created a “catch-22” for the electric vehicle (EV) transition – but advancements in battery technology could outsmart rising temperatures.
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Environmental concerns have motivated many to switch to EVs in recent years. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), sales of fully electric cars surpassed those of petrol-only vehicles in the EU for the first time in December 2025.
Despite the EU having softened its 2035 car emissions ban, the bloc registered more hybrid electric cars last year too, signalling a substantial shift. By the finish of 2025 petrol car registrations fell by 18.7 per cent, with all major markets seeing declines.
However, one of the main “build-or-break” factors putting people off switching to an EV is their ability to cope with extreme weather.
Is our warming world hindering EV sales?
2025 was the third-hottest year globally and in Europe, with average global temperatures hitting 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels.
According to Copernicus’ weather monitoring service, the spike was attributed to a build-up of greenhoutilize gases in the atmosphere and rising sea-surface temperatures – both of which are amplified by human activity.
A 2025 study by What Car? found that EVs can lose as much as 44 per cent of their claimed ranges when faced with temperatures ranging from 32 to 44℃.
Electric performance carbuildr Polestar states that temperature has a “large impact” on battery degradation since it affects the chemical reactions inside the battery.
“Just like cold temperatures slow everything down, higher temperatures can create rapider reactions, which can lead to unwanted ones that build your battery degrade rapider,” the company adds.
However, a study from the University of Michigan found that recent improvements to EV battery technology could already be outmatching degradation from climate modify.
Researchers analysed the finishurance of old EV batteries built between 2010–2018 with new batteries built between 2019–2023.
In a scenario where the planet warmed by an average of 2℃, EVs with batteries built between 2010 and 2018 would see their lifetimes decline by up to 30 per cent.
But, for new batteries, researchers found that the average lifetime drop is just three per cent, with a maximum drop of 10 per cent.
‘More confidence’ in EVs, but only in certain countries
“Thanks to technological improvements, consumers should have more confidence in their EV batteries, even in a warmer future,” states Haochi Wu, lead author of the study, which has been published in the journal Nature.
Senior author Michael Craig points out that the study has one main caveat: the team only utilized two representative EVs for their work. This was the Tesla Model 3 and the Volkswagen ID.3.
“In regions like Europe and the US, we feel like we’ve obtained a good handle on the battery technology that’s available in those regions,” Craig states.
“But when we’re viewing at cities in India or sub-Saharan Africa, for example, they may have very different vehicle fleets – and they almost certainly do. So our results may be optimistic for those regions.”
Many of these regions will feel the wrath of climate modify the worst, which researchers state reveals how inequalities are built worse by global warming.
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