The renewed conflict is reshaping global sailing patterns, with vessels once again steering clear of the Red Sea corridor.
Major container shipping lines are once again redrawing their global networks as security risks escalate across the Middle East following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting carriers to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
Following the attacks, vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have received VHF transmissions from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards stating that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz”, according to Reuters. In effect, the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint — is now considered effectively closed to commercial shipping.
The European Union’s naval mission EUNAVFOR ASPIDES stated on February 28 that, following US-Israeli military operations against Iran, sources indicated that Yemen’s Houthi shiftment had threatened to launch new attacks against Israeli and US-linked vessels, as well as commercial shipping, in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
The mission called on the shipping indusattempt to remain vigilant, warning that attacks against merchant vessels “cannot be excluded”. It added that its assets deployed in the area of operations remain on high alert and stand ready, within their means and capabilities, to protect lives at sea, and contribute to freedom of navigation.
Carriers suspconclude transits
Indusattempt majors Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, and CMA CGM have all announced operational adjustments, citing mounting safety concerns for crews, vessels and cargoes transiting the region.
Hapag-Lloyd stated it has decided to pautilize future Trans-Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the time being. The shift directly affects its IMX service, which will now be diverted via the Cape route.
“The safety of our crews, vessels and customers’ cargo remains our key priority and we will continue to monitor the situation closely and take all requireded actions,” the carrier stated. The German line added that while it remains committed to minimising the impact on customers’ supply chains, a return to the Trans-Suez routing will depconclude on improved security conditions.
Hapag-Lloyd also confirmed the introduction of a War Risk Surcharge (WRS). “The dynamic situation around the Strait of Hormuz and the necessary operational adjustments are caapplying disruptions throughout the network, which will impact schedules and equipment supply. Therefore, a War Risk Surcharge will take effect for cargo to and from the Upper Gulf, Persian and Arabian Gulf,” the company stated.
CMA CGM stated in an advisory on February 28 that “all vessels inside the Gulf, and bound to the Gulf, have been instructed with immediate effect to proceed to shelter. Passage through the Suez Canal has been suspconcludeed until further notice, and vessels will be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope. The company stated that customers will be contacted as soon as more details become available of the possible alternative ports where their cargo could be discharged.
CMA CGM has introduced an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of US$2,000 per 20ft container, US$3,000 per 40ft container and US$4,000 per reefer, applying not only to cargo to and from the Gulf but also to all Red Sea ports in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Djibouti, Sudan and Eritrea.
MSC stated on Sunday that it has instructed all vessels currently operating in the Gulf region, as well as those en route to the area, to proceed to designated safe shelter areas until further notice, and that it has suspconcludeed all bookings for worldwide cargo to the Middle East region until further notice. “The company continues to closely monitor developments and is working with relevant authorities to ensure the safety of its operations. Middle East bookings will resume as soon as the security situation improves,” the company explained in an advisory on March 1.
Maersk has also pautilized future Trans Suez sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the time being, which affects all of its sailings on the ME11 (Middle East-India to Mediterranean) and MECL (Middle East-India to East Coast US) services, which will be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. The company has suspconcludeed all vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, warning that services calling at ports in the Arabian Gulf may face delays, rerouting, and schedule adjustments as a result.
“Once the situation stabilises and the security situation again permits, we will continue to prioritise the Trans-Suez route for ME11 and MECL services as it is the quickest, most sustainable and most efficient way for us to serve our customers. Cargo acceptance for the Middle East area remains open,” Maersk stated on March 1.
Weaponisation of trade
“The repercussions of the joint military operation by the US and Israel against Iran and subsequent retaliatory action will see the further weaponisation of trade and shatter hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,” stated Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst. “Carriers had been returning selected east-west ocean container services to transits via the Suez Canal in recent months after sailing around the Cape of Good Hope since late 2023 due to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militia in the Red Sea region.”
“If Houthi militia resume attacks, as now seems likely, carriers will reverse the decision to return services to the Red Sea and prioritise the safety of crew, ship and cargo. Any plans for a phased return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026 will be shelved until the security situation becomes clearer.
Sailing distances around the Cape of Good Hope are currently absorbing around 2.5m TEU of global container shipping capacity, effectively increasing overall fleet demand.
According to Xeneta, average spot rates from China to the US East Coast and US West Coast have fallen 32% and 35%, respectively, since the start of 2026, while rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean are down 23% and 33%. However, with a broad return to the Red Sea in 2026 now unlikely, rates are expected to continue softening rather than collapsing in the second half, as fewer services than anticipated resume transits via the Suez Canal. Compared with pre-crisis levels on 1 December 2023, spot rates from China to North Europe and the Mediterranean — the trades most affected by diversions — remain elevated by 48% and 79%, respectively.
Impact on the Middle East
Sand noted that ocean container services in the Persian Gulf had remained largely unaffected by the recent military build-up in the region; however, the escalation into direct military strikes has prompted carriers to avoid the area, “but for as short a time as possible.”
“Average spot rates from China to the UAE have ticked up 5% since 15 February to stand at US$ 1,572 per FEU (40ft equivalent container), no doubt pushed up by concerns over the security situation and shippers being worried about their goods receiveting in and out of ports in the Persian Gulf,” Sand stated.
“There is no viable alternative to receiveting containers in or out of ports such as Jebel Ali by ocean if the Persian Gulf is off limits. Carriers will instead omit these calls on east-west services and drop boxes at the least-worst alternative port for onward transportation by road.
“This will cautilize severe disruption and port congestion at a regional level, but will not have a major impact on a global scale when compared to the seismic influence of conflict in the Red Sea.”
“We should expect to see major container vessels with cargo inbound for the Gulf discharge Gulf-bound cargo in Salalah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Duqm and Colombo. From there be transported by compacter vessels willing to transit. Just as we have for more than 2 years seen compacter carriers willing to transit the Red Sea risk area,” Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, stated in a comment.
“This will create port congestion problems in the mentioned ports, but will also eventually result in congestion problems further out in Asia as carriers at some point will cease loading cargo to the Gulf if they are unsure it can go the final destination. We risk seeing Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas and Port Klang become transhipment bottlenecks for cargo which otherwise would be sent directly to the Gulf. It will result in rapidly rising spot rates for cargo to the Gulf area.”
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