Europe Small Arms Market Size, Share, & Growth, 2034

Europe Small Arms Market Size

The Europe compact arms market was valued at USD 2.74 billion in 2025, is estimated to reach USD 2.81 billion in 2026, and is projected to reach USD 3.45 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 2.6% from 2026 to 2034.

The Europe compact arms market is projected to reach USD 3.45 billion by 2034

Small arms are firearms designed for apply by a single individual. Broadly defined by their portability, they are typically weapons that can be carried and operated by one person without a crew or vehicle. Unlike civilian firearms, which are heavily restricted, military and police compact arms are procured under strict national and EU regulatory frameworks that prioritize interoperability, reliability, and compliance with international humanitarian law. The market is shaped by evolving security threats, NATO standardization mandates, and urgent replenishment necessarys following large-scale deployments. According to the European Defence Agency, total defence expfinishiture for its 27 member states reached €343 billion in 2024, rising for the 10th consecutive year. While specific inventory counts for compact arms are classified by nation, the EU as a bloc remains a dominant player in the global arms trade, with its member states accounting for approximately one-quarter of global international arms exports. As per the NATO Defence Planning Capability Review (2023/2024), Allies have agreed to accelerate investments in defence following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, shifting priority toward collective defence requirements. To harness battlefield lessons, NATO and Ukraine established the Joint Analysis Training and Education Centre (JATEC) in early 2025 to integrate combat experiences into future capability tarobtains and modernization efforts. This strategic recalibration positions compact arms not as static inventory but as dynamic, network-ready tools essential for force readiness and tactical superiority in complex operational environments.

MARKET DRIVERS

Escalating Hybrid Threats and Counter Terrorism Imperatives

The proliferation of asymmetric warfare and domestic terrorism has amplified the growth of the European compact arms market. This has intensified demand for advanced, reliable compact arms across European security forces. According to Europol’s 2024 Terrorism Situation and Trfinish Report, the European Union experienced a rise in reported terrorist attacks, with separatists committing the highest number of completed attacks, while jihadist terrorism was the most lethal. In response, specialized units such as France’s RAID and Germany’s GSG 9 have upgraded to modular assault rifles like the HK416 and FN SCAR, which offer enhanced accuracy, suppressor compatibility, and rail integration for optics and lasers. The war in Ukraine further exposed vulnerabilities in legacy inventories. Western allies have transferred a significant number of compact arms to Ukrainian forces between 2022 and 2024 to support their defense, resulting in a notable reduction of national stockpiles among contributing nations. Countries like Poland and the Baltic states have since launched emergency procurement programs. Poland continues to modernize its military and Territorial Defence Forces by acquiring new, domestically produced, and modernized compact arms, including large-scale orders for the MSBS Grot rifle system and additional quantities of the Beryl platform. This dual pressure from external conflict and internal security threats transforms compact arms from routine equipment into critical national security assets requiring continuous investment and readiness.

NATO Standardization and Interoperability Requirements

Alliance-wide efforts to harmonize ammunition, accessories, and maintenance protocols are driving the adoption of standardized compact arms platforms across the region, which is one of the major factors boosting the expansion of the European compact arms market. NATO STANAG standards 4172 and 2310 ensure that ammunition, rather than rifle ergonomic or rail design, is interalterable across NATO member weapon systems. Modern NATO procurement, supported by NSPA, continues to reveal a strong preference for modularity and ambidextrous operating controls in new compact arms acquisition. This standardization reduces logistical complexity during joint operations, such as those under the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity, and enables shared training and spare parts pools. The Belgian FN Herstal SCAR and German Heckler & Koch HK416 have become de facto standards due to their modularity and NATO compliance. These interoperability imperatives create economies of scale, incentivize collaborative procurement, and marginalize non-compliant legacy systems, consolidating the market around a few high-performance, alliance-certified platforms.

MARKET RESTRAINTS

Stringent National Firearm Control Legislation

Broader EU firearm regulations, despite military and police exemptions, indirectly constrain the growth of the European compact arms market. These regulations also impact compact arms development and export. The EU Firearms Directive, as amfinished, mandates strict control over semi-automatic firearms, high-capacity magazines, and the conversion or deactivation of firearms, requiring enhanced standards for weapons applyd for training or marking. The European Commission frequently identifies that Member States apply varying national restrictions beyond minimum EU standards, creating challenges in the cross-border shiftment of, and trade in, specialized, deactivated, or training weapons. Germany’s War Weapons Control Act requires stringent, specialized licensing for the export of war weapons, which involves complex, multi-agency scrutiny that can result in significant delays in deliveries to partner nations. These legal barriers increase administrative overhead, deter private investment in dual-apply technologies, and fragment the European industrial base. Regulatory uncertainty is hindering innovation in smart optics and training simulators, slowing the industest’s ability to meet new, urgent operational necessarys, even though combat firearms remain exempt.

Ethical and Political Opposition to Arms Exports

Public and parliamentary scrutiny over arms sales to conflict zones or authoritarian regimes creates reputational and operational risks for manufacturers in the region, which negatively impacts the expansion of the European compact arms market. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Germany and Sweden saw a decrease in their share of global major arms exports between the 2015–19 and 2020–24 periods. Campaigns by NGOs like Amnesty International have pressured governments to revoke licenses for sales to countries involved in Yemen or human rights violations. The Dutch parliament has previously shiftd to restrict arms component exports to countries involved in Middle Eastern conflicts due to concerns over human rights violations. These interventions disrupt long term production planning, inflate compliance costs, and push manufacturers toward domestic-only contracts with lower margins. The resulting caution undermines Europe’s ambition for defence industrial autonomy, as companies avoid international partnerships that could enhance scale and innovation but carry political risk.

MARKET OPPORTUNITIES

Modernization of Legacy Inventories Through Modular Upgrade Kits

Rather than full replacement, many militaries in the region are extfinishing the life of existing compact arms through precision upgrade packages, which pave the way for new opportunities for the European compact arms market. Companies like Heckler & Koch and FN Herstal offer conversion kits that retrofit Cold War-era rifles with free-floating barrels, adjustable stocks, and MIL STD 1913 rails. European nations are actively phasing out or upgrading aging, legacy assault rifle platforms, such as the G36 and FAMAS, to meet modern combat requirements, often by adopting new, modular weapon systems (e.g., HK416/G95) rather than undertaking large-scale mid-life upgrades. Upgrading existing military compact arms can provide significant budobtainary savings compared to procuring entirely new systems. However, the decision to upgrade must be balanced against the necessary for full modern capability and long-term sustainability, which often leads to new procurement to address the limitations of older platforms. Upgrades also preserve familiar maintenance ecosystems and operator muscle memory. This approach aligns with EU sustainability principles by reducing waste and maximizing existing asset value, creating a robust secondary market for subsystem integrators and sustaining industrial capacity during transition periods to next-generation platforms.

Integration of Smart Optics and Fire Control Systems

The convergence of compact arms with digital battlefield networks offers key growth areas to enhance marksmanship and situational awareness, which is predicted to drive the expansion of the European compact arms market. Next-generation rifles are increasingly paired with fire control systems like the TrackingPoint or Rheinmetall’s Argus, which integrate laser rangefinders, ballistic computers, and augmented reality reticles. According to studies by the French Directorate General for Armaments (DGA), the FÉLIN integrated infantest system significantly improves lethality and engagement accuracy during day and night operations compared to standard equipment, specifically by enhancing tarobtain acquisition through advanced weapon sights and thermal imaging. Similarly, the UK’s Future Integrated Soldier Technology programme embeds weapon data into helmet displays, enabling squad-level tarobtain sharing. AI-powered threat detection and wireless connectivity are maturing. Consequently, compact arms are evolving from passive tools into active nodes in network-centric warfare. This digitization not only improves lethality but also generates valuable training data, enabling personalized skill development and predictive maintenance, positioning early adopters at a decisive tactical advantage.

MARKET CHALLENGES

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities in Critical Component Sourcing

A high depfinishency on non-EU suppliers for critical components threatens the autonomy of the region’s compact arms manufacturing and the overall growth of the European compact arms market. This exposes production to geopolitical and logistical risks. European Union assessments highlight a heavy reliance on a limited number of non-EU nations for critical materials and high-performance components, prompting initiatives to diversify supply chains. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has created logistical challenges for the European defense industest, cautilizing delays in the delivery of various weapon systems. Similarly, rare earth elements essential for smart optic sensors are overwhelmingly sourced from China, creating long-term strategic exposure. Initiatives like the European Raw Materials Alliance aim to build resilience. However, establishing certified alternative sources requires years of qualification. These barriers constrain production scalability, inflate costs, and jeopardize the timely delivery of urgently necessaryed weapons, undermining Europe’s goal of defence industrial autonomy.

Rapid Obsolescence Due to Emerging Battlefield Technologies

The pace of asymmetric warfare innovation, particularly in drone swarms, electronic warfare, and urban combat, threatens to outpace compact arms effectiveness within years of fielding, and thereby impedes the expansion of the European compact arms market. Commercial drones now conduct reconnaissance and drop grenades on entrenched positions, forcing infantest to engage aerial tarobtains with standard rifles, a tactically disadvantageous scenario. Current compact arms lack integrated counter-drone capabilities, requiring soldiers to carry separate launchers or jammers. Additionally, GPS jamming in contested zones disables smart ammunition guidance systems, rfinishering them ineffective. Research indicates that modern defense systems require open architecture designs to integrate new sensors and tools efficiently, preventing premature obsolescence. This approach, widely discussed in military technology, ensures that equipment remains effective throughout its deployment cycle. This dynamic demands unprecedented agility in design, testing, and fielding, pressuring legacy defence contractors to adopt software-centric development models more akin to Silicon Valley than traditional military procurement.

REPORT COVERAGE

REPORT METRIC	DETAILS
Market Size Available	2025 to 2034
Base Year	2025
Forecast Period	2026 to 2034
Segments Covered	By Type, Application, and Region.
Various Analyses Covered	Global, Regional, and Countest-Level Analysis, Segment-Level Analysis, Drivers, Restraints, Opportunities, Challenges; PESTLE Analysis; Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Competitive Landscape, Analyst Overview of Investment Opportunities
Countries Covered	UK, France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Netherlands, Turkey, Czech Republic, Rest of Europe
Market Leaders Profiled	Heckler & Koch GmbH, SIG Sauer GmbH & Co. KG, FN Herstal, Beretta Holding S.p.A., Rheinmetall AG, B&T AG, CZ Group, Glock Ges.m.b.H., Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc., Colt’s Manufacturing Company LLC, Weatherby, Inc., Tikka, Steyr Mannlicher GmbH & Co. KG, Blaser Jagdwaffen GmbH, Benelli Armi S.p.A., Franchi S.p.A., J. P. Sauer & Sohn GmbH, Taurus Armas, Century International Arms

SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS

By Type Insights

The rifles segment led the European compact arms market and captured a 62.8% share in 2025. The leading position of the segment is attributed to its central role in military infantest operations, counter terrorism, and border security across NATO and EU forces. Rifles serve as the standard individual weapon for dismounted soldiers across all European armed forces, with platforms like the HK416, FN SCAR, and Beryl M762 forming the backbone of mechanized and rapid reaction units. NATO is focutilizing on the modernization of compact arms, emphasizing interoperability and the adoption of NATO-standard calibers for infantest weapons across member forces. The war in Ukraine has intensified this requirement. Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Western nations accelerated the transfer of varied compact arms to Ukraine, resulting in significant, rapid procurement of new, modernized rifles by contributing nations to restock their arsenals. To modernize its forces and replace older weapons, Poland has significantly increased domestic procurement of Grot assault rifles and authorized major acquisitions of varied military equipment to bolster its capabilities. Unlike handguns or shotguns, rifles offer the optimal balance of range, accuracy, stopping power, and accessory integration, creating them irreplaceable in both conventional and hybrid warfare scenarios. Modern military rifles are designed around NATO STANAG specifications, ensuring compatibility with standardized ammunition (5.56×45mm and 7.62×51mm), magazines, and rail systems. New rifle procurement contracts across the Alliance are increasingly mandating modern modular interfaces, specifically Picatinny rails, to support enhanced optic, laser, and grip compatibility. This interoperability reduces logistical complexity during joint operations and enables shared training protocols across allied forces. The Belgian FN Herstal SCAR and German Heckler & Koch HK416 have become de facto standards due to their adaptability, allowing quick barrel alters for close quarters or long-range roles. This standardization creates economies of scale, incentivizes collaborative procurement, and marginalizes non-compliant legacy systems, consolidating the rifle segment as the strategic core of Europe’s compact arms ecosystem.

The rifles segment led the European compact arms market and captured a 62.8% share in 2025.

The handgun segment is estimated to register the quickest CAGR of 7.4% between 2026 and 2034 due to specialized law enforcement and personal defense necessarys. Handguns are increasingly issued as primary or secondary weapons to urban police, border guards, and counter terrorism teams operating in confined environments where rifles are impractical. European special intervention units are increasingly adopting modern, modular semi-automatic pistols that offer high capacity and compact frames for specialized operations. These models feature enhanced ergonomics, red dot sight compatibility, and improved trigger safety, critical for precision in high stress scenarios. France’s RAID and Germany’s GSG 9 have fully transitioned to modular handgun platforms since 2023, enabling rapid customization for mission profiles. The rise in lone actor terrorist attacks in public spaces further justifies concealed carry authorization for plainclothes officers, driving institutional demand beyond traditional military channels. While civilian firearm ownership remains tightly restricted, select EU countries have introduced limited handgun licensing for high-risk professionals such as armored transport guards, diplomats, and critical infrastructure personnel. Swedish authorities have revised national firearms legislation to tighten controls on high-risk weapons while streamlining administrative requirements for hunters and sport shooters. The Swedish Police Authority continues to maintain a rigorous licensing process, ensuring all new handgun permits for professional or private apply meet strict national security standards. Manufacturers like Walther and CZ respond with compact, low-recoil models featuring biometric safeties and micro red dot mounts. Though compact in volume compared to military sales, this segment offers high margin, premium pricing opportunities, and fosters brand loyalty among professional applyrs who later influence institutional procurement decisions.

By Application Insights

The defense and homeland security applications segment was the largest in the European compact arms market and occupied a significant share in 2025. The supremacy of the segment is credited to the prioritization of national and collective security in post invasion Europe. The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered an unprecedented drawdown of European military compact arms stocks. Following extensive military support transfers to Ukraine, European nations are rapidly procuring new service weapons to replenish stocks and enhance readiness. Countries like Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states launched emergency procurement programs. Poland is executing a major modernization of its military, which includes ordering large numbers of domestically produced rifles to replace older weapons. Simultaneously, NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in Eastern Europe requires fully equipped brigade combat teams, each necessarying thousands of rifles, machine guns, and sidearms. The European Commission’s Strategic Compass explicitly identifies compact arms as “critical enablers of credible deterrence,” ensuring multi-year funding through national defence budobtains and the European Peace Facility. Beyond conventional warfare, compact arms are essential for countering hybrid threats such as sabotage, drone swarms, and paramilitary incursions. Border security forces in Finland and Estonia now conduct regular live fire drills against simulated infiltrator scenarios, requiring reliable, cold-weather-tested firearms. The EU’s Rapid Deployment Capacity mandates standardized compact arms for all contributing nations to ensure interoperability. In response to increased security challenges at external borders, Frontex has highlighted the necessary for increased cooperation and enhanced equipment to counter emerging risks. This dual focus on high-intensity conflict and sub-threshold aggression cements Defense and Homeland Security as the structural core of compact arms demand, insulated from economic cycles and driven by strategic necessity.

The law enforcement application segment is anticipated to witness the quickest CAGR of 8.1% from 2026 to 2034, owing to urban counter terrorism and active shooter preparedness, and standardization across municipal and national forces. European police forces are upgrading compact arms in response to evolving urban threat landscapes. Recent Europol reports have indicated a significant rise in total terrorist incidents within the EU, resulting in police forces continuing to adopt specialized long guns for rapid response. Following a review of the 2019 Halle synagogue attack, multiple German state police forces accelerated the issuance of compact carbines to regular patrol officers. Similarly, France’s National Police and Gfinisharmerie modernized their arsenal by selecting the HK UMP9 to replace older submachine guns, a process that has been ongoing since the late 2010s. These platforms offer superior stopping power and accuracy over traditional handguns in open or crowded environments. Fragmentation in police equipment historically hindered joint operations, but recent EU initiatives promote harmonization. The Prüm II Agreement facilitatescross-borderr pursuit, requiring compatible firearms and ammunition among participating states. In response, countries like Spain and Italy have aligned their service pistol calibers to the 9×19mm NATO standard, enabling mutual logistics support. This trfinish toward common platforms reduces training costs, simplifies spare parts management, and enhances interoperability during multinational crisis responses. As urban security becomes increasingly networked, law enforcement’s compact arms evolve from local tools to integrated components of continental public safety architecture.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

The European compact arms market features intense rivalry among legacy defence primes, state-backed national champions, and emerging technology integrators. Established players like Heckler & Koch and FN Herstal leverage decades of operational validation and deep integration into NATO logistics networks. Meanwhile, national manufacturers such as Fabryka Broni benefit from sovereign procurement policies and emergency rearmament budobtains. Competition is increasingly defined by modularity, digital integration, and supply chain resilience rather than price alone. Ethical export controls and public scrutiny constrain commercial flexibility, favoring companies with strong government ties and transparent compliance frameworks. Despite rising demand, the market remains highly regulated, with success depfinishent on balancing cutting-edge performance, political alignment, and industrial sovereignty within Europe’s evolving security architecture.

KEY MARKET PLAYERS

Some of the companies that are playing a dominating role in the global europe compact arms market include

Heckler & Koch GmbH
SIG Sauer GmbH & Co. KG
Fabrique Nationale Herstal (FN Herstal)
Beretta Holding S.p.A.
Rheinmetall AG
B&T AG (Brügger & Thomet)
CZ Group (Česká Zbrojovka)
Glock Ges.m.b.H.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
Colt’s Manufacturing Company LLC
Weatherby, Inc.
Tikka (part of Sako/Beretta Group)
Steyr Mannlicher GmbH & Co. KG
Blaser Jagdwaffen GmbH
Benelli Armi S.p.A.
Franchi S.p.A.
Sauer & Sohn GmbH
Taurus Armas
Century International Arms

TOP LEADING PLAYERS IN THE MARKET

Headquartered in Germany, Heckler & Koch is a globally recognized leader in military and law enforcement compact arms, renowned for its G36, HK416, and P30 series. The company supplies NATO forces, special operations units, and police agencies across Europe and beyond with precision-engineered firearms that emphasize reliability, modularity, and ergonomic design. It also expanded its digital training ecosystem with virtual reality marksmanship simulators adopted by the German Bundeswehr and Dutch National Police. These innovations reinforce its reputation as a technology-forward partner in modern infantest modernization and tactical readiness.
Based in Belgium, FN Herstal is a cornerstone of European compact arms production, manufacturing the SCAR rifle family, FNX pistols, and Minimi light machine guns applyd by numerous armed forces worldwide. The company plays a critical role in NATO standardization through its STANAG-compliant platforms. It also established a joint sustainment hub in Estonia to support Eastern European allies with rapid spare parts logistics and field maintenance training. These actions strengthen its position as a strategic enabler of allied interoperability and rapid response capability.
Operating under Poland’s state-owned Polish Armaments Group, Fabryka Broni is a key Central European manufacturer producing the Beryl and MSBS Grot rifle families for the Polish Armed Forces and export markets. The company has emerged as a vital supplier in Europe’s post-Ukraine war rearmament drive. It also inaugurated a new automated barrel forging line in Radom to increase annual output significantly by 2026. These investments position Fabryka Broni as a sovereign industrial pillar in Europe’s push for defence autonomy and resilient supply chains.

TOP STRATEGIES USED BY THE KEY MARKET PARTICIPANTS

Key players in the European compact arms market are prioritizing modular weapon architectures to enable rapid customization for diverse mission profiles. They are integrating smart optics and digital fire control systems to enhance marksmanship and battlefield connectivity. Companies are establishing regional sustainment hubs to provide rapid spare parts and training support to allied forces. Strategic alignment with NATO standardization mandates ensures interoperability and access to multinational procurement programs. Additionally, manufacturers are investing in automated production lines to scale output while maintaining precision, addressing urgent replenishment necessarys driven by geopolitical instability and stockpile depletion.