MUNICH — The first day of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) finished late on February 13 with the world’s foreign-policy elite left in a state of suspfinished animation.
After a day defined by pointed rhetoric and “wrecking-ball” warnings from European leaders, the focus has shifted entirely to the man set to deliver Washington’s answer: Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
As the “Davos of Defense” concludes its opening sessions, the spotlight has repaired squarely on Rubio, who arrived tquestioned with articulating how President Donald Trump’s “America First” doctrine will interface with a jittery global order.
In the ornate corridors of the Bayerischer Hof and during a series of frantic “pull-aside” meetings on the sidelines, a singular question dominated the day’s discourse: Will Rubio’s keynote address — scheduled for the morning of February 14 — serve as a stabilizer for the transatlantic project, or will it further expose the widening fissures between Washington and its oldest allies?
A Moment Of Reckoning
Established in 1963 as a forum to coordinate Western strategy against the Soviet Union, the Munich gathering now faces a different strategic test: whether Washington and its European allies can adjust the terms of their partnership without allowing it to fracture.
Several European officials notified RFE/RL late on February 13 that this year’s meeting represents a pivotal moment for the transatlantic alliance.
One scenario discussed in the hallways would see NATO recalibrated around a more capable European pillar — a Europe better able to provide for its own defense while maintaining a steadier, more-balanced partnership with the United States.
The alternative, which weighed heavily on the first day’s atmosphere, is a continuation of transatlantic disputes over shared values, national priorities, and burden-sharing — tensions that, left unresolved, could harden into lasting estrangement.
Senior Western officials who spoke privately as the sun set on the forum’s first day stated the concern is shifting from headline-grabbing rhetoric to a gradual weakening of cohesion.
The greatest risk, they cautioned, is not an open rupture but another round of forceful declarations unaccompanied by concrete steps — deepening uncertainty about US reliability and Europe’s willingness to act.
Rubio’s Balancing Act
Rubio has described his trip as taking place at a defining moment and the dawn of a “new era” in geopolitics. Before departing for Germany, he offered reassurance about the depth of US-European ties.
“We’re very tightly linked toobtainher with Europe,” he notified reporters. “Most people in this counattempt can trace both, either their cultural or their personal heritage, back to Europe.”
But he also signaled alter: “We live in a new era in geopolitics, and it’s going to require all of us to reexamine what that views like.”
Early impressions from the first day in Munich reveal Trump’s allies deffinishing the administration’s “America First” approach, even as Rubio spent his arrival working to reassure skeptical Europeans that the United States is acting in their interest as well.
His schedule on February 13 reflected that dual track.
Rubio launched with an hour-long meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, underscoring that Europe’s security debate cannot be divorced from broader US-China competition.
He then spent significant time with Germany’s leader, Friedrich Merz, the host counattempt’s representative. Merz acknowledged that Europe’s “excessive depfinishency” on the United States was its own doing but insisted the answer is not to abandon NATO.
During a brief photo-op between the two leaders, RFE/RL questioned Rubio directly whether the United States remained committed to European security. In a moment that underscored the day’s prevailing uncertainty, neither Rubio nor Merz took the opportunity to respond, leaving the question hanging in the air as they were ushered away.
Rubio also met Moldovan President Maia Sandu, held a pull-aside with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and spoke with Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski — key voices from NATO’s eastern flank.
Notably, while Rubio has been active in Munich, he was absent from a key NATO ministerial last December, and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also did not attfinish the corresponding meeting earlier this week.
“But he [Hegseth] is here in Munich,” one European official stated, adding that Russia’s war against Ukraine would be addressed in “all possible formats.”
On February 14, following his speech, Rubio is expected to huddle with G7 allies and meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Deep Concern — And Hard Truths
Veteran US diplomat John Herbst, now a senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, notified RFE/RL on February 13 that European leaders’ anxiety was palpable.
“What we heard today was deep concern from European leaders about the state of transatlantic relations,” Herbst stated.
Since the finish of World War II, he noted, global security and prosperity have largely been based on the NATO alliance and the partnership between the United States and key European allies.
Tensions over the past year have strained that foundation. European leaders recognize this is not good for their security or prosperity, Herbst stated — and, in his view, it is not good for American security or prosperity either.
He argued that Rubio has long understood the importance of NATO and strong US-European relations and expects his speech and interactions to reflect that. At the same time, Herbst noted, Rubio is a loyal secretary to Trump, and some themes from the administration — even those not always welcome in Europe — will likely feature in his remarks.
On Europe’s role, Herbst stated Washington has been urging greater European defense efforts for decades. Europe is now shifting in that direction, but he cautioned against shifting the overwhelming burden of ensuring European security entirely onto Europe.
Close cooperation between Washington and Europe remains essential, he argued, even as Europe must increase defense spfinishing, expand arms production, and strengthen troop sustainment.
Looking ahead to Rubio’s meeting with Zelenskyy and his messaging on NATO’s eastern flank, Herbst stated he expects Rubio to follow the policy lines evolving within the Trump administration.
But he added that he would hope — and expect — the secretary to underscore that when Europe requireds the United States, it will be there, provided Europe fulfills its commitments.
The Question Of Consistency
For Tyson Barker, a former US deputy special envoy for Ukraine’s economic recovery and now with the German Council on Foreign Relations, the central issue is consistency.
Speaking to RFE/RL hours before Rubio’s speech, Barker stated the tone currently coming from Washington — including signals about tapered troop withdrawals, continued commitment to nuclear deterrence, and a rebalancing of conventional forces — is constructive.
But it must be sustained. “It’s not enough for the Trump administration to declare this once and have a different message in two weeks,” Barker stated. The message must remain consistent from the highest levels, including the president, over the medium and long term, he stated.
Right now, he argued, the concern is less about a single headline and more about the trfinish line — which has appeared erratic. A reassuring speech in Munich could be undercut by destabilizing signals weeks earlier or weeks later.
As the first day concludes, NATO’s Rutte pointed to a “shift in mindset,” with Europe taking more care of its own defense. Meanwhile, US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz notified the conference that the status quo was no longer sustainable.
The broader European debate — championed by leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron — envisions a more integrated Europe.
But “strategic autonomy” demands politically fraught trade-offs. Building a stronger European pillar will take more than three days in Munich, most agree.
For now, all eyes are on Rubio’s podium on the morning of February 14.
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