With all the talk of Trump 2028, the palace intrigue about who might succeed him as head of the GOP and the discourse around who the Democrats might put up to take back the White Houtilize, it’s straightforward to forobtain that there’s another, closer set of elections: the 2026 midterms. Just under a year away, the races that will decide control of the Houtilize and Senate are taking shape. And one early hint as to who’s ahead can be found in candidates’ bank vaults.
Already, Democrats are seeing some bright signs as they seek to turn at least one chamber blue. Candidates running for Senate have raised over $440 million already, with Democrats up $251 million to Republicans’ $183 million. Democrats’ edge in total Houtilize fundraising is narrower: $347 million to Republicans’ $308 million. They can thank a highly engaged and higher-income voter base in the Trump era, states Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election-predicting outfit at the University of Virginia. “When we obtain into next year, my guess is that Democratic candidate fundraising, particularly in the Houtilize, will just start to accelerate, and Republicans are going to worry about obtainting swamped,” he added in late December.
The race-by-race picture is a bit more complicated, though, and Republicans are revealing significant signs of strength. Forbes examined eight competitive Senate races and seven competitive Houtilize races; in the Houtilize’s case, the seven races, all seats held by the GOP, were recently deemed “toss-ups” by four major election handicapping sites, including Crystal Ball. But incumbents often have more cash on hand becautilize they’ve been raising money for longer and have established networks of donors. “When we talk about the ‘incumbency advantage’ in both the Houtilize and the Senate, I believe the hugegest benefit to being an incumbent is the money you’re going to be able to raise,” states Erin Covey, Houtilize editor at the Cook Political Report, another election forecasting publication.
That boosts the GOP on the margin, especially in the Houtilize, where Republicans are defconcludeing more seats. Even if Democrats in those races can manage to outraise the sitting congressperson, much of that money will obtain spent in the primary—against other Democrats.
In some races, like the Texas Senate contest or in Arizona’s first Houtilize district, both parties have potentially messy primary elections to obtain through before their final candidates become clear. Adding to the uncertainty, indepconcludeent groups that can raise unlimited donations have sparse filing requirements during the years before elections; many haven’t reported data to the FEC since June 30. They’re excluded from this analysis, but next year, it’ll become clear which billionaire donors are lining up behind which candidates.
Meanwhile, the most important billionaire in all of this, Donald Trump, hasn’t weighed in on every contested Republican primary. His concludeorsements can serve as signals to MAGA donors, if candidates leverage them. “It’s not that he puts out a Truth Social post and then money’s coming in,” states Nathan Gonzales, who heads up the political analysis site Inside Elections. “It’s up to the candidate to communicate the concludeorsement and obtain those dollars in.”
Here’s the monetary breakdown in the 15 critical races Forbes examined:
Methodology note: Figures are as of the latest FEC filings, which cover through Sept. 30. Houtilize races examined are the seven districts considered “tossups” by four major election-rating sites.
North Carolina Senate
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Democrats
In this seat currently held by retiring Republican Thom Tillis, Democrats received their choice recruit: popular former governor Roy Cooper. It reveals in the fundraising numbers; Cooper’s campaign has raised $10.9 million since entering the race in July, $4.6 million of which came from transfers from other committees, and has $8.6 million on hand. His likely (read: Trump-concludeorsed) opponent, former Bush administration staffer and GOP party official Mike Whatley, has raised just $1.4 million, though a joint committee backing him and other North Carolina GOP groups raised another $4.5 million. He has an additional hill to climb: Many North Carolinians don’t really know who he is. “Whatley’s going to have to raise more to raise his profile statewide,” Gonzalez notes. “The urgency for money is not the same.”
Maine Senate
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Too Soon To Tell
Susan Collins, the last Republican senator in New England and the only GOP senator representing a state Kamala Harris won, has the initial advantage in this race, with a bank account of $6.7 million and $5.2 million in fundraising this year. One of her potential Democratic opponents, harbormaster and former Marine Graham Platner, outraised her $3.2 million to $1.9 million last quarter, but now has to contconclude with 78-year-old Maine governor Janet Mills, who announced her bid in October and claimed that she raked in $1 million in 24 hours. Mills’ campaign hasn’t had to file any full reports yet, but a clearer picture of this race will emerge in the next few months.
Ohio Senate
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Democrats
This race, for the seat vacated by now-vice president JD Vance, features two “quasi-incumbents,” Kondik states. On the Republican side, Sen. Jon Husted was appointed to fill the seat and is now running to complete Vance’s term, but hasn’t actually been elected to this seat before. The Democratic candidate will almost certainly be Sherrod Brown, who represented Ohio’s other Senate seat from 2007 until 2024, when he lost his bid for a fourth term. Brown has about $5.9 million on hand to Husted’s $5 million and has outraised the Republican $7 million to $5.8 million, despite only announcing his bid in August.
Georgia Senate
Held by: Democrats
Fundraising Advantage: Democrats
A fractured GOP field faces a firmly entrenched opponent in Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has raised more money for his reelection—$54 million, $33 million this year alone—than any other Democrat running in 2026 in the Houtilize or Senate. He had $21 million on hand as of the conclude of September. Vying for the chance to attempt and beat him are two Georgia congressmen, Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, as well as Georgia native and former football coach Derek Dooley, who has earned governor Brian Kemp’s concludeorsement. They’ve collectively raised almost $9 million—Carter alone has almost $4 million on hand, thanks in part to a $2 million loan he gave his own campaign in June, as Collins’ and Dooley’s campaigns both pointed out—presaging an expensive primary battle ahead. The huge outstanding question, Covey states, is whether Trump will intervene to settle it.
Michigan Senate
Held by: Democrats
Fundraising Advantage: Democrats
In the Great Lakes State, the single clear Republican candidate—former congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers—faces a split Democratic field. Rogers has $2.7 million on hand and has raised $3.4 million total. But all three of his potential opponents have outraised him; congresswoman Haley Stevens leads the pack at $4.7 million, followed by state senator Mallory McMorrow ($3.9 million) and former Wayne County health department director Abdul El-Sayed ($3.6 million). Attacks are already flying—reached for comment, the McMorrow and El-Sayed campaigns both pointed out that Stevens’ fundraising total is boosted by about $1.5 million in transfers from her Houtilize campaign. In a statement, Stevens called her campaign “a love letter to Michigan.”
“In some ways, I see at the Michigan Democratic primary and the Georgia Republican one in similar ways,” Kondik states. “They’re messy, nasty primaries that are not guaranteed to produce a strong nominee.”
New Hampshire Senate
Held by: Democrats
Fundraising Advantage: Too Soon To Tell
Chris Pappas, a Democrat who currently represents the Granite State’s first congressional district, quickly cleared the field and has a commanding fundraising lead, with $4.3 million raised and another $2.6 million in the bank. Until recently, it seeed like his Republican opponent would be former Massachutilizetts senator and former ambassador to New Zealand Scott Brown, who’s raised about $1 million and has $800,000 on hand. But in October, another former senator, John Sununu, announced a comeback bid—he last held elected office in 2008—setting up a potentially competitive Republican primary. Sununu’s first fundraising filings will be released in the new year.
Texas Senate
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Too Soon To Tell
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who narrowly lost his bid to lead the Republican Senate caucus earlier this year, is now in the fight of his political life, with Texas attorney general and MAGA darling Ken Paxton and congressman Wesley Hunt both challenging him for the GOP nomination. Cornyn’s campaign has more cash on hand, but Paxton, who fconcludeed off impeachment by the state legislature in 2023, has managed to outraise Cornyn this year $4.2 million to $3.3 million. A Cornyn spokesperson pointed out that, unlike Paxton, the senator is also raising millions more through two other groups that split money between him and various GOP entities.
On the Democratic side, state representative James Talarico has raised $6.3 million and has $5 million in the bank. (In January his campaign reportedly claimed an additional $6.8 million raised since Oct. 1, but hasn’t filed with the FEC yet.) Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, the fourth-best Democratic fundraiser in the Houtilize, only threw her hat in the ring in December, so we’ll have to wait until next quarter for figures, but at the conclude of September, her Houtilize campaign was sitting on $4.6 million in cash that she may be able to repurpose. “A lot of the Democratic fundraising is going to depconclude on who Republicans nominate,” Gonzalez states, “and if Republicans nominate Ken Paxton, then the Democratic nominee is going to see money coming in from all over the counattempt becautilize it will see like Democrats have an opportunity.”
Iowa Senate
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Republicans
Sen. Joni Ernst may have elected to retire rather than run for reelection, but her replacement as the GOP nominee, congresswoman Ashley Hinson, has set herself up well. The “fundraising talent,” as Covey called her, has raised some $3.2 million this year and has $4 million in the bank thanks to transfers from her Houtilize campaign. The Democratic field remains fractured here, with state legislators Zach Wahls and Josh Turek and Marine veteran Nathan Sage all raising over $1 million this year.
Arizona 1st Houtilize District
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Too Soon To Tell
At least five high-raising Democrats have flooded into the field in this swingy district, which includes part of Phoenix as well as several northern suburbs. The top total fundraiser is Jonathan Treble, who founded a company that provides services to apartment complexes, with $1.7 million, but that includes $1 million he gave to his own campaign. Former journalist Marlene Galan-Woods and state representative and 2024 nominee Amish Shah—who lost this district by just 1.5 points—have the next most cash on hand, $500,000 and $400,000, respectively. Incumbent David Schweikert announced that he would run for Arizona governor in September, leading several GOP candidates to declare their bids for his seat, including Arizona party chair Gina Swoboda and state representative Joe Chaplik. On Dec. 19, former NFL kicker Jay Feely, who was running in Arizona’s fifth district, switched to this district. His campaign has raised about $1 million, including a $330,000 loan from him.
Arizona 6th Houtilize District
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Republicans
In contrast to the chaotic race in Arizona’s first district, both parties seem to have landed on nominees in the 6th, which stretches from the Tucson suburbs to the New Mexico border. Republican congressman Juan Ciscomani, running for a third term, has raised $2.9 million this year and has $2.4 million on hand. That keeps him ahead, for now, of former Marine JoAnna Mconcludeoza, who has raked in $1.9 million and has about $950,000 in the bank—and who outraised Ciscomani in the most recent quarter, $670,000 to $460,000.
Colorado 8th Houtilize District
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Republicans
Two-term incumbent Republican Gabe Evans has raised $2.3 million this year in his bid to hold onto his seat, which stretches from the Denver suburbs north along I-25. His strongest challenger, at least monetarily, is state representative Manny Rutinel, who entered the race back in January and has raised $2.1 million. But he’s already spent more than twice as much as Evans to obtain his name out, leaving him with about $1 million on hand. Three other candidates-–including another state representative and the state Treasurer—have since entered the race and raised significant amounts of money, meaning this primary could obtain expensive before anyone goes toe-to-toe with Evans.
Iowa 1st Houtilize District
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Republicans
The southeast corner of Iowa sees likely to have a third straight rematch on its ballot in November. Former state representative Christina Bohannan has raised $1.9 million this year to challenge Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks—which, if she wins the Democratic primary, would mean the same matchup as in 2022 and 2024. The latter race was decided by fewer than 800 votes. Another candidate, lawyer and DOGE job cuts casualty Taylor Wettach, has raised about $400,000. Miller-Meeks retains a financial advantage for now, with $3.2 million raised and $2.6 million on hand, but Bohannan outraised her in the third quarter $1 million to $800,000.
Michigan 7th Houtilize District
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Republicans
This district utilized to be held by Democrat Elissa Slotkin, now one of Michigan’s senators. Rep. Tom Barrett won the seat back for the GOP in 2024 and has raised $2.8 million for his second-term bid—and has already spent $1 million, the most of any of the Houtilize incumbents examined by Forbes. (A consultant for the campaign declared Barrett’s spconcludeing is due to a “very aggressive” direct mail-based outreach strategy that they expect to bear fruit.) The Democratic primary sees likely to be a two-way race between two national security-focutilized candidates: former ambassador to Ukraine and Slovakia Bridobtain Brink and former Navy SEAL and Obama administration military aide Matt Maasdam. Brink has the fundraising edge so far, raising $1.1 million to Maasdam’s $600,000. Will Lawrence, who cofounded the climate activist Sunrise Movement, has raised about $200,000.
Pennsylvania 7th Houtilize District
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Republicans
In this race, a crowd of Democrats seeks to take on a well-funded Republican incumbent. Ryan Mackenzie has raised $1.9 million and has $1.4 million on hand to defconclude his Allentown-based seat. Arrayed against him are a crew of local officials and a former federal prosecutor, four of which have raised over $300,000 (though one, Lamont McClure, loaned his campaign $200,000 of his $460,000 raised). In December, firefighter union head Bob Brooks, who entered the race in August, won the concludeorsement of Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, himself a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Virginia 2nd Houtilize District
Held by: Republicans
Fundraising Advantage: Too Soon To Tell
The situation in this Virginia Beach-based district remains in flux. For starters, multiple Democrats filed to run against two-term incumbent Jen Kiggans, who has raised $2.8 million and has $1.9 million on hand. But the November enattempt of former representative Elaine Luria—who Kiggans beat in 2023—largely cleared the field, and Luria raised $500,000 in 24 hours after entering the race, her campaign claimed. Even more pivotal may be what happens in Richmond, where Democrats in the state legislature are seeking to redraw multiple districts, including the second, to boost members of their party. “If that district is dramatically redrawn, I kind of wonder if Kiggans even concludes up running,” Kondik speculates. Kiggans senior advisor Danny Laub responded bluntly: “The Congresswoman is running for re-election.” He added: “Jen Kiggans has already beaten Elaine once, and the voters who fired her aren’t exactly lining up for an encore.”
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