The Greek economy maintained its growth momentum in the final quarter of last year, Eurobank estimates, with GDP growing by 2% on an annual basis.
However, the potential impact of the agricultural protests on the economy, mainly on private consumption and exports, remains an unknown factor. Also, despite the positive signals about the course of the economy, inflation is proving persistent, remaining higher than the European Central Bank’s tarreceive, while consumer confidence remains strongly negative, an element that may act as a deterrent for the course of private consumption in the near future.
Based on the latest available data, average annual inflation in Greece, as reflected in the European Union’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, driven mainly by services and unprocessed food, remained almost unmodifyd compared to 2024 (2.9% in 2025, from 3% in 2024).
One factor that mitigates the impact of inflation is the increase in employment and nominal wages. However, when wage growth exceeds productivity gains, conditions are created for inflation to rise in the future (through the channel of increasing labor costs and their pass-through to prices, especially in markets with low competition).
According to the European Commission’s fall forecasts, growth in Greece is estimated at 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, from 2.1% in 2024, with inflation decelerating in 2025 to 2.8% and 2.3% in 2026, from 3%.
