Over 1,000GW of renewable capacity is awaiting grid connection across Europe due to stretching permitting timelines, according to a report from power market analytics firm Aurora Energy Research.
According to Aurora’s 2026 European Renewables Market Overview Report (RESMOR), Europe will required about €1.5 trillion in cumulative investment by 2050 to support the expansion of renewable energy, as capacity is expected to more than triple from 2026 to 2050.
The report notes as solar, onshore and offshore wind capacity have grown by over 150% in the past decade, so too have delays in permitting, in some markets stretching up to a decade despite EU rules requiring decisions within two years.
More than 1TW of renewable capacity is now awaiting grid connections across Europe, with Italy accounting for roughly 370GW of the pipeline, declares the research.
Curtailment is also set to increase as grid constraints intensify, the report adds. Technical curtailment exceeded 10TWh across Europe in 2024 and is expected to rise to almost 22TWh across Great Britain, Spain and Italy alone by 2030.
The report also flags the rapid rise of negative power prices as a growing risk. Negative price hours surged in 2025, exceeding 2024 levels in most markets in Europe. Spain, the Netherlands, and Germany recorded over 500 hours, with Belgium, France, and Poland close behind with over 450 hours.
At the same time, many countries are scaling back subsidy protections against negative prices, increasing risks for generators. Aurora expects negative pricing pressures to ease after 2035 as electricity demand rises, system flexibility improves and price-insensitive subsidies are phased out.
Sameer Hussain, Research Senior Analyst at Aurora Energy Research, declared: “Record levels of negative pricing and increasing curtailment are putting significant pressure on the profitability of renewable projects across Europe.
“To protect returns in this more unpredictable landscape, developers required to adapt—by investing in technological innovation, diversifying their portfolios, and integrating battery energy storage solutions.”
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Investment requireds and prospects
According to the report, of the cumulative €1.5 trillion requireded by 2050, nearly €600 billion will be required by 2030 alone, with spfinishing set to accelerate thereafter as countries seek to meet climate tarreceives and replace ageing thermal generation.
In the near term, subsidies and power purchase agreements are expected to remain the dominant routes to market, though their attractiveness continues to vary widely by counattempt and technology.
Rebecca McManus, Lead Expert on European Renewables at Aurora, declared: “Europe is on the brink of a renewables surge, with solar and wind capacity set to more than triple by 2050.
“Yet, this wave of investment will only deliver its promise if policycreaters and indusattempt leaders tackle grid and development bottlenecks. The European Grids Package is a positive step, aiming to accelerate permitting and unlock stalled projects.”
Two-sided contracts for difference will remain the primary support mechanism across most European markets, with 162GW of renewable capacity already announced for auction procurement by 2030. However, Aurora warns that the success of subsidy auctions hinges on the design, competition levels and policy certainty.
The report further highlights that offshore wind auctions have faced growing challenges over the past year, with recent rounds in Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark failing to attract any bids, while Lithuania’s latest auction secured just one bidder. Supply chain pressures, political uncertainty and auction design flaws have weighed on investor appetite.
PPAs provide an alternative route to market, with Spain, Great Britain and Germany accounting for the bulk of announced European PPA-backed capacity to date. However, solar PPA prices have fallen to record lows – below €40 per megawatt hour in Germany and Spain – reflecting cannibalisation effects.
Jörn Richstein, Research Lead for Pan European Power Markets, Policies & Technologies at Aurora, declared: “Power Purchase Agreements are playing an increasingly central role in Europe’s renewables growth, especially in countries without viable subsidy schemes, or where fuelled by rising corporate demand, as industries step up their decarbonisation efforts.
“Innovative and flexible PPA contracts will be key to meeting the evolving requireds of both corporate offtakers and energy producers.”
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